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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-Mar-08
China crushes protests by Buddhist monks in Tibet

Web Log - March, 2008

China crushes protests by Buddhist monks in Tibet

The Dalai Lama, exiled in India since 1959, called for calm.

Thousands of protesters, led by Buddhist monks, filled the streets of Lhasa, the capital of Tibet, this week. Tibetans threw stones and set fires, particularly targeting Chinese businesses and properties. Tibet is a "secessionist" province of China, and Chinese troops responded, and dozens of Tibetans were killed.

Tibet's last crisis war was the Tibetan rebellion against the Chinese in the 1950s. This week's riots were timed to commemorate the climax of the rebellions, when the Chinese crushed the rebellion on March 10, 1959. At that time, hundreds of Tibetans, including the Dalai Lama, fled to India, where they've lived in exile ever since.

The current riots are occurring across a centuries-old fault line between two ethnic groups: the Tibetans themselves, and the Han, the principle Chinese ethnic group. The Tibetans and the Han have fought numerous crisis wars for centuries.

China and its provinces <font face=Arial size=-2>(Source: The Economist)</font>

China and its provinces (Source: The Economist)

However, it's been only 49 years since the 1959 climax of the last crisis war, and so Tibet is in a generational Unraveling era. That means that the demonstrations will fizzle before too much longer.

However, recall that a similar situation existed when there were similar demonstrations in Burma (Myanmar) last year in October, when Burmese civilians, led by Buddhist monks, demonstrated against the Chinese-supported government. Burma's last crisis war climaxed in 1958, and so Burma was also in a generational Unraveling era. And so, as expected, the Burma demonstrations fizzled. However, the Burmese demonstrations fizzled only after a violent reaction from the Burmese government.

Recall also that Burma's "88 generation" had massive student demonstrations on 8/8/88, demonstrations that were brutally suppressed by the Burmese government at the time.

Tibet had similar mass demonstrations a few months later, with a similar bloodbath, in early March, 1989, a month before the Tiananmen Square massacre.

Since the 1989 Tibet demonstrations, China has been forcibly relocating large segments of the Tibet population, in order to weaken Tibetan culture. At the same time, China has relocated millions of Han families into Tibet, in order to dilute the Tibetan population. The Han form a market-dominant majority in Tibet, contrasted to the disadvantaged Tibetans. This is the surest way for China to have created a hate-filled fault line between Tibetans and Han, and that's why the rioters have been targeting Han businesses and properties. (This paragraph was added on March 16.)

Returning now to the present, it's quite possible that the Chinese will overreact in Tibet in the current demonstrations. But whether they overreact or not, it's too early along the generational timeline for the demonstrations to spiral into full-scale war between Tibetans and Han, and so the demonstrations won't last long.

Beijing may well overreact, for three different reasons:

Eastern China is in a generational Crisis era. This is one of those situations where a single country is large enough to have more than one generational timeline. It's especially to be expected in this case, where there's a sharp ethnic difference between the Tibetan and Han ethnic groups.

Historic ethnic Tibet region within western China (Source: BBC)

The adjoining map shows the historical region occupied by Tibetans. Over the centuries, parts of Tibet were taken by the Han Chinese, incorporated into separate provinces of Qinghai, western Sichuan and northwestern Yunnan.
This map also shows the location of Dharamsala, India, where the exiled Tibetans, including the Dalai Lama, live.
From Beijing's point of view, the real danger of civil war is in eastern China, not in Tibet. Beijing is aware of this.

Beijing actually has three major secessionist provinces: Tibet, Xinjiang (a principally Muslim province), and Taiwan. A threatened rebellion in any one of these provinces could spark a simlar rebellion in the other two.

2008 is supposed to be the "Year of China," with the Olympics games coming to Beijing this summer. China wants everything to be perfect, but is now being repeatedly embarrassed by human rights issues, first in Darfur, and now in Tibet. China will want the Tibet demonstrations to end quickly, and be forgotten by the summer.

Last October's Burmese uprising has almost completely disappeared from the world's news pages today.

The situation in Tibet should end exactly the same way -- disappearing from the news pages within a few weeks. If it ends differently, it will be because it triggers something in China, rather than in Tibet itself. This remains to be seen. (16-Mar-08) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-Mar-08 China crushes protests by Buddhist monks in Tibet

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-Mar-08
China crushes protests by Buddhist monks in Tibet