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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-Mar-08
China's problems mount, as Tibet violence is linked to summer Olympics

Web Log - March, 2008

China's problems mount, as Tibet violence is linked to summer Olympics

Violence has spread well beyond the borders of Tibet itself.

Historic ethnic Tibet region within western China <font face=Arial size=-2>(Source: BBC)</font>

Historic ethnic Tibet region within western China (Source: BBC)

After a week of rioting, Chinese security forces have clamped down and restored calm to Lhasa, the capital of what China calls the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR). Officials have demanded that all rioters turn themselves in to the police, and have warned that any further rioting will have severe consequences.

However, China's troubles are far from over. Rioting is increasing in historic ethnic provinces -- Qinghai, Sichuan and Yunnan. Rioting is increasing in Dharamsala, India, where the Dalai Lama and exiled Tibetans have been living since the 1959 Chinese clampdown. There's also rioting among Tibetans in Kathmandu, Nepal.

Although the violence in Tibet has not spiraled out of control, it's clear that the ethnic fault line between the Tibetans and Chinese is overwhelmingly hate-filled, especially on the Tibetan side. Tibetans in Lhasa have targeted Chinese businesses and committed abominations on Chinese people.

For decades, the Chinese authorities have done one thing after another to infuriate the Tibetans.

They've forced rural Tibetans to move to the cities. According to the Chinese, the intention was to improve their standard of living, which is probably true. According to the Tibetans, their intention was to weaken Tibetan culture and merge it with Chinese culture, and that's probably true too.

They've relocated millions of Chinese families into Tibet, in order to dilute the Tibetan population. However, this has created a two-tier society in Tibet, with the market-dominant Chinese controlling many of the businesses, while the disadvantaged Tibetans live in poverty.

In a move of unmitigated gall, the Chinese have claimed for themselves the right to choose the next Dalai Lama, after the current one (now in his 70s) dies. What could Beijing possibly be thinking?
In response, the current Dalai Lama has announced his intention to appoint his own successor, without waiting for his own death,

Government employees are forced to publicly denounce the Dalai Lama, who is Buddhism's "Living Buddha."

Zhang Qingli was appointed Communist Party secretary of the TAR, said last year, "The Communist Party is like the parent to the Tibetan people, and it is always considerate about what the children need. ... The Central Party Committee is the real Buddha for Tibetans." What could Beijing possibly be thinking?

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that this is going to end badly. The only question is the time frame.

The Tibetans believe that this time is their best chance. With the Beijing Olympics only a few months away, Tibetans see this as the best time to reach their goal of a separate nation of Tibet.

The Chinese would never consider that, of course, since that would imply that Taiwan could also secede. So you can see that the Tibetan and Chinese positions can never be reconciled without a war.

The situation is of theoretical interest to Generational Dynamics because of the differing generational timelines. The Tibetans' last crisis war climaxed in 1959, while the Chinese' last crisis war climaxed in 1949. It's possible for an identity group to have a crisis war a few years "early," especially if they're attacked by another identity group already in a crisis era. This doesn't seem likely in the TAR itself, but something like it is quite possible in the areas Qinghai, Sichuan and Yunnan where the Tibetans and the Chinese Han intermingle and compete for resources. This is something to watch for and evaluate.

The greatest chance for violence is Chinese overreaction. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) are probably the most paranoid group of people on earth these days, and they see the Tibetan rioting as a Great Tibetan Conspiracy to humiliate the Chinese in the Olympics. There's some truth to that claim, of course, but not to the massive extent that the CCP fears. If the CCP would only "cool it," then the riots would mostly fizzle, and prove only a minor embarrassment in the summer. Instead, the CCP is making the situation much worse than necessary.

Even worse for the Chinese is that countries around the world are linking the Tibet situation to the Olympics and calling for Chinese restraint. The Chinese are especially being warned not to repeat the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre.

The paranoid CCP officials are facing potential humiliation on several fronts. The Tibet situation will undoubtedly continue; the Darfur human rights criticisms will continue, especially since Steven Spielberg resigned; and Taiwan is holding Presidential elections on March 22, including a referendum on Taiwan joining the United Nations separately from China. The temptation for the Chinese to overreact must be great.

And once the Olympics games have ended, then the CCP will have no further motivation to hold back. Beijing is probably already preparing action plans, possibly with military components, to be put into effect as soon as the games end. (18-Mar-08) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-Mar-08 China's problems mount, as Tibet violence is linked to summer Olympics

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-Mar-08
China's problems mount, as Tibet violence is linked to summer Olympics