Palestinian opinion shifts toward greater confrontation with Israel - 24-Mar-08 - Generational Dynamics

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 24-Mar-08

Palestinian opinion shifts toward greater confrontation with Israel

A Khalil Shikaki poll shows increasing acceptance of violence against Israel in the Palestinian territories. The poll was conducted by Shikaki's Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research.

Shikaki told the NY Times that he was shocked because the survey showed greater support for violence than ever before, and that, for the first time, a majority favored an end to negotiations and the shooting of rockets at Israel. According to Shikaki,

"There is real reason to be concerned. The anger that this poll is registering is about equal to that at the very height of the second intifada. I am very worried about what is coming."

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Here's are the main findings from the poll:

"Findings indicate that a major shift, in Hamas�s favor, had occurred during the last three months with about 10% of the population shifting their attitudes and perceptions. The change included increased popularity of Hamas and its leadership, increased support for its positions and legitimacy, and greater satisfaction with its performance. These changes might have been the result of several political developments

starting with the breaching of the Rafah border with Egypt during the last week of January and first week of February,
followed by the Israeli military incursion into the Gaza Strip
leading to a large number of Palestinian causalities and
an increase in the number of rockets launched from the Gaza Strip against Israeli towns such as Sderot and Ashkelon,
the two suicide attacks in Dimona and Jerusalem leading to the death of nine Israelis, and
ending with the failure of the Annapolis process in positively affecting daily life of Palestinians in the West Bank, in stopping Israeli settlement activities, or in producing progress in final status negotiations.

These developments managed to present Hamas as successful in breaking the siege and as a victim of Israeli attacks. These also presented Palestinian President Abbas and his Fateh faction as impotent, unable to change the bitter reality in the West Bank or ending Israeli occupation through diplomacy."

As regular readers of this web site know, this is the kind of attitude change that I've been watching for, for several years.

In 2003, when I wrote "Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace?" I said that the Roadmap would fail, and that the death of Yasser Arafat, when it occurs, would be part of a major generational change that would lead to a new genocidal war between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the war between Jews and Arabs that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel in the late 1940s.

Arafat died in November, 2004, and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon went into a coma in January, 2006. These two men cooperated (consciously or unconsciously) in prevent a new genocidal war between Jews and Arabs, but now, with both of them gone, generational forces are taking over, and there is no way to prevent a new war.

Still, I've never yet seen the requisite fury and hatred from the Palestinians toward the Jews that would signal that such a war is getting close. (Nor have I seen it on the Jewish side, either.)

This is only one poll, of course. It indicates not a massive change in attitude, but an incremental change in attitude. But it's a significant change and, even more important, it represents a trend that may well be unstoppable. (24-Mar-08) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 24-Mar-08 Palestinian opinion shifts toward greater confrontation with Israel

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 24-Mar-08
Palestinian opinion shifts toward greater confrontation with Israel