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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Apr-08
The new Iraqi "civil war" fizzles out, as expected

Web Log - April, 2008

The new Iraqi "civil war" fizzles out, as expected

Radical Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr called for a cease-fire on Sunday, bringing calm to most of the streets of Basra in southern Iraq.

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The new Iraqi "civil war" fizzles out, as expected: Radical Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr called for a cease-fire on Sunday,... (1-Apr-08)

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The BBC really played up the violence last week, with frequent comments about the danger of increasing violence, a new "explosion" into a return to sectarian violence and possible civil war.

As I've been saying since 2003, Iraq is in a generational Awakening era, just one generation past the genocidal Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, and so a civil war at this time is impossible or, if one begins, then it fizzles quickly. That's what happened again last week.

Pundits are really puzzled about what happened. The violence has been portrayed as pitting the Iraqi army, with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki at its head, versus the Shia al-Mahdi army, with radical Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr at its head.

According to the pundits, al-Sadr's army was beating the Iraqi army hands down. It was a totally uneven battle. And yet, al-Sadr is the one who sued for peace. The pundits are wondering, "What's going on?"

This gets to the heart of what an Awakening era is. A year ago, in "Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq," I explained at length, quoting numerous sources, that Iraqis did not want to fight, and that Sunni Iraqis were turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq, which was essentially an invading force of terrorists. Of course, we now know that the Sunni Iraqis have thrown out al-Qaeda in Iraq in the "Anbar Awakening" that accompanied the "surge" in American forces.

So it shouldn't be very strange that we're now seeing the same thing on the Shia side. What you have are young 20-25 year old kids, unemployed and living in slums, joining the Shia militias because they can hardly wait to go out there and kill someone. But then you have their 40 year old mothers. Their mothers lived through the horrors of the Iran/Iraq war, and they're absolutely sick of war. They're telling their sons, "Look, your father was tortured and killed in that war. My brother, your uncle, was burned to death. I don't want you getting tortured and killed. Stay out of it."

That's the kind of thing that happens during an Awakening era, and it's why there are so few serious wars fought during those eras.

As if to prove my point, here's an article on the ceasefire:

"Basra fight turns political, Published: March 31, 2008 at 3:34 PM

BAGHDAD, March 31 (UPI) -- A Sadrist lawmaker said the Iraqi curfew enacted to quell recent violence created a humanitarian disaster amid inter-political wrangling over the shaky truce.

Falah Shinishel with the Sadrist Movement said residents in Basra and Baghdad under the curfew suffered from a "dire shortage" of food and medicine and blamed the Iraqi government for continuing the curfew "for unrealistic reasons," Voices of Iraq said Monday.

The spokesman for the Iraqi government, Ali al-Dabbagh, said intelligence suggesting militants were planning a large-scale operation against residential areas prompted a decision to impose an extended curfew on vehicle traffic, though the government lifted the general curfew.

"Terrorist groups are trying to exploit the current situation, and target the residential (areas)," Dabbagh told VOI. ...

Do you get it? Al-Sadr's militias might have won. Instead, the Iraqi government won the war by enforcing a curfew!! Why fight a war, when all you have to do is declare a curfew? That's what happens in an Awakening era. Question: Why don't they just call a curfew in Darfur? Answer: Because it couldn't possibly work there, because that's a Crisis war.

I said there would be no civil war in Iraq, and there was no civil war in Iraq. I said that the Darfur civil war was unstoppable, and the Darfur civil war has been unstoppable. In country after country, and region after region -- Iraq, Iran, Sudan (Darfur), Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, Japan, Burma, Kenya, China / Tibet, etc. -- I've made predictions that have come true or are trending true - none has been shown to be false. In the past five years, I've written two books and posted 981 articles on this web site, all of which can still be read by anyone who wants to go back and check what I've said. No pundit would ever challenge people to do that, but I do.

You know, Dear Reader, the sheer absurdity of what's going on is never lost on me. I sit here obsessively, alone in my apartment, in front of my computer, usually late in the evening, and use this apparently god-like power to decide what's going to happen in finances and in countries around the world -- Kenya, Lebanon, Iraq, etc. -- and everything I predict comes true, and I'm the only person in the world doing this. (A couple of years ago, someone in a forum suggested that I was actually CONTROLLING world events. I had a good laugh over that.)

Government officials, high-paid analysts, highly respected journalists, politicians and pundits have no idea what's going on in the world -- or at least when they make predictions, their predictions turn out to be wrong half the time. They don't seem to have a god-like power like I have.

There's no god-like power, of course. It's a good thing I'm not a religious person, because if I were I'd really be confused about what's going on. But I know that it's all generational analysis that I'm always explaining on this web site. Once I do a thorough generational analysis of a country, I know a great deal about what's going to happen there. And it's getting so easy for me, now after my two books and 981 articles. Iraq, Iran, Kenya, Burma, whatever -- at this point I can read a news story or intelligence report about what's happening in any country that I've analyzed, and I immediately can tell whether the news story is significant or not, and what it's probably going to lead to. Other people have to guess or scratch their heads, but I seem to know right away.

If I could get a sponsor interested, within a year I could create a computerized "world model" that would have highly predictive capabilities about any country or region in the world. This product would have plenty of applications in commerce and government, but whenever I propose it to anyone I just get blown off.

This latest Iraq situation has really affected me. When the Basra violence broke out last week, I immediately knew that the mainstream media would play it up, that the mainstream media would be wrong, and that the violence would fizzle before too long. That's what happened. It's gotten so easy for me. Everything I predict comes true, and I'm the only person in the world doing this. There's barely a moment that goes by when I don't just shake my head and ask myself, what the hell is going on? How the hell is this happening? It's absurd and scary.

The traffic to this web site has been growing recently, and based on the web logs, I estimate that I now have well over 5,000 regular readers.

I know from the e-mail messages that I get that many of you are anxious and scared about what's going on in the world, and you come to this web site because it's the only one that tells you what's actually going on, so that you can prepare for it. Nobody in 2003 would have told you that we're headed for a new Great Depression, but I did on this web site. Nobody in 2003 would have told you that the Mideast peace plan would fail, and that a new genocidal war between Arabs and Jews is certain, but I did on this web site. Over and over again, people who want to prepare for what's coming have turned to this web site to get some guidance.

(See "List of major Generational Dynamics predictions" for more information.)

As I always like to say, you can't stop what's coming, any more than you can stop a tsunami. You can't stop it, but you can prepare for it. Treasure the time that you have left, and use it to prepare yourself, your family, your community and your nation.

I want you to know, Dear Reader, that when I first began this web site in 2002, it was an interesting experiment, but today I take my responsibility to this web site very seriously. Mainstream journalists, analysts and politicians have massive conflicts of interest, and often will lose their jobs unless they always say that things will be better or unless they support some political position.

I have no conflicts of interest whatsoever, except to maintain my own credibility. And that's why I always adhere strictly to the Generational Dynamics forecasting methodology that I've developed, and which has never failed me yet.

However, one reason I went into all of this is because I want to make a point to those of you who are scared to death about what's coming: I'm just as scared as you are, probably more scared. It's just that I handle being scared differently from you. I handle it by obsessively posting Generational Dynamics predictions on my web site, which is not something that other people do.

As always, I thank the ever growing readership of this web site. I'm still keeping up with answering e-mail comments and questions, though it sometimes takes me a few days to get back. If you have any questions or comments, you can use e-mail or one of the little "Comment" forms. Also, it's not hard to find my phone number on my web site if you look for it. I'm not inviting a million calls, and I don't have anything to offer but an ear and a little counsel, but that resource is available to you if you want it. We're really all in this together. (1-Apr-08) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Apr-08 The new Iraqi "civil war" fizzles out, as expected

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Apr-08
The new Iraqi "civil war" fizzles out, as expected