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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 6-Apr-08
Pakistan's tribal areas have become the world nerve center for al-Qaeda terrorism

Web Log - April, 2008

Pakistan's tribal areas have become the world nerve center for al-Qaeda terrorism

Al-Qaeda now has "free reign" and "safe haven" in this region.

Official map of Pakistan, with the addition of the FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas), highlighting Swat Valley <font face=Arial size=-2>(Source: pakistan.gov.pk)</font>

Official map of Pakistan, with the addition of the FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas), highlighting Swat Valley (Source: pakistan.gov.pk)

Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA) has played an increasingly important role in the spread of al-Qaeda's terrorism throughout the world.

FATA is now the location of al-Qaeda's leadership, including Osama bin Laden.

Terrorist attacks in Pakistan's Swat Valley, as well as other terrorist acts, probably including the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, are being launched from FATA. The same is true of terrorist attacks on coalition forces in Afghanistan. It's the FATA region that makes Pakistan the most dangerous country in the world.

Terrorist attacks among the Muslim ethnic group, the Uighurs, in China's Xinjiang province, are also being launched from FATA.

Terrorist attacks in Algiers and Casablanca, in other North African sites, and in numerous European cities, are being coordinated through FATA.

As has become apparent since the 2005 London subway bombings, the UK is flooded with Islamic terrorists and sympathizers. Many of them are British-born third generation Pakistanis who have developed a generational "Hero/Prophet" relationship with Islamist clerics in al-Qaeda, communicating over the internet.

According to CIA director General Michael Hayden, appearing on Meet the Press on Sunday, March 30:

"But it's very clear to us that al-Qaeda has been able, over the past 18 months or so, to establish a safe haven along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border area that they have not enjoyed before, that they are bringing operatives into that region for training, operatives that, a phrase I would use, Tim, wouldn't attract your attention if they were going through the customs line at Dulles [airport] with you when you're coming back from overseas."

The following is the portion of the interview dealing with the Pakistan question:

Al-Qaeda's goal has been, and continues to be, to trigger a war in some nation, creating an Islamic state, as happened in Iran in 1979. They've failed to do so in Iraq and Saudi Arabia, and they're still actively trying in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Their control of Pakistan's FATA is a major stepping stone in the achievement of that goal.

The FATA region is administered by Pakistan, but is not controlled by Pakistan. In 2006, Pakistan's president Pervez Musharraf made a deal with the FATA tribal lords, where Pakistan's regular armed forces would withdraw, leaving the FATA groups to police themselves. Hayden was asked whether this agreement was a mistake for Musharraf:

"Absolutely disastrous. All right? And then, and then, and, look, to be fair to President Musharraf, in different times and in different circumstances, all of us would think that what he had, what he had decided to do was wise, was patient, was, was what you need to do over the long term. The problem was what was happening over the short term. He, he was, in fact, pulling forces and the writ of the Pakistani government back from the tribal region, and al-Qaeda and the Taliban were having more and more free reign there. And so, again, the overall objective, you know, in the easier military hand--more economic, cultural, political integration, investment, worked for the long term, it's inarguable. But what it turned into since September of '06, when Governor Aurakzai signed that peace agreement in north Waziristan is what I referred to a minute ago. It created that safe haven."

This answer is interesting from the point of view of Generational Dynamics he says that "in different times," the agreement might have worked. Those "different times" would be a different generational era, not the generational Crisis era of present day Pakistan.

This is another example, among several that I've noted on this web site, where politicians have made substantial policy errors that they would not have made if they understood generational theory. (6-Apr-08) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 6-Apr-08 Pakistan's tribal areas have become the world nerve center for al-Qaeda terrorism

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 6-Apr-08
Pakistan's tribal areas have become the world nerve center for al-Qaeda terrorism