	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

\| HOME \| WEB LOG \| COUNTRY WIKI \| COMMENT \| FORUM \| DOWNLOADS \| ABOUT \|

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-Apr-08
Chinese call for a "people's army" to protect Olympics torch in Australia

Web Log - April, 2008

Chinese call for a "people's army" to protect Olympics torch in Australia

Call is to protect torch from "splittists", "scum" and "running dogs"

Xenophobic and angry rhetoric between China and the West continued to increase this week, as security plans took shape for the Asian leg of the Olympics torch relay.

Thousands of "patriotic Chinese" are expected to rally in Canberra on April 24 when the Olympic torch arrives. The mass campaign is being organized by student leaders in Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra, with the cooperation of the Chinese embassy. The organizers promise peaceful, non-violent actions.

On its face, there's nothing particularly alarming about this situation.

The problem is that a pattern of overreaction is developing on both sides, especially the Chinese side, and this leads to concerns the rally will turn violent.

As I wrote several days ago in "Chinese embarrassment and anger grows over Tibet and Olympics," the Chinese have plenty of reason to be angry. When the torch was in London and Paris, Chinese security guards were called "horrible Chinese thugs" by London's Daily Mail, and China's beloved fencing star, Jin Jing, was approached and threatened by a Tibetan separatist. There's an enormous amount of anti-Chinese bigotry in the West.

However, the problem is that the attitudes of many Chinese have exceeded mere anger, and are crossing the line into paranoia, blaming the Western media and Western governments for PURPOSELY attacking China, just at a time that should be their greatest triumph, the summer Olympics. Thus, the planned rally could indeed break out into violence.

The feelings of xenophobia and paranoia are not all one-sided. A new Harris poll has found that Europeans increasingly see China as the greatest threat to world stability and security. Those crazy Europeans used to say that the United States was the greatest threat, but that's changed now. The number of respondents saying that China was the biggest threat has been increasing; it's at 35% now, it was 19% in 2007, and only 12% in 2006.

Actually this poll is very interesting for another reason. Naming the US as the world's greatest threat was never anything more than fatuous political nonsense, but the selection of China represents real anxieties and fears, and indicates a substantial change in behaviors and attitudes by the Europeans.

So what we see growing quickly is increased paranoia and nationalism on all sides -- exactly the emotions likely to lead to miscalculation and a surprise confrontation that escalates quickly into full-scale war.

Here's the schedule of the torch relays in Asia:

    April 16 - Islamabad, Pakistan
    April 17 - New Delhi, India
    April 19 - Bangkok, Thailand
    April 21 - Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
    April 22 - Jakarta, Indonesia
    April 24 - Canberra, Australia
    April 26 - Nagano, Japan
    April 27 - Seoul, South Korea
    April 28 - Pyongyang, North Korea
    April 29 - Ho Chi Minh City (Saigon), Vietnam
    May 2 : May 8 - China
    May 8 - Beijing Olympics opening ceremony

Already, Pakistan and India have announced altered routes for their legs of the relay, in order to keep demonstrators at bay, and Japan has canceled a big torch-related event. Such things infuriate the Chinese, because they see it as intentional efforts by the Western press and Western governments to humiliate the Chinese.

The situation is this: Tibetan separatists are trying to provoke a confrontation. Paranoic, nationalistic Chinese officials are inclined to overreact. Anger and nationalism are increasing on all sides. The situation is ripe for a major international incident. How major will depend on how much the Chinese overreact to the Tibetan separatists and other human rights accusers.

The most critical time, in my opinion, will be the weeks and months following the end of the Olympics. It seems quite likely that (a) some incident will occur that raises Chinese nationalist feelings; (b) the Chinese will overreact, creating an even larger incident, provoking nationalistic feelings in the West; and (c) the Chinese will view the whole thing as an intentional act by the West for ruining the Olympics for China.

Thus, it's possible that the Olympics will end with the furiously angry Chinese blaming the West for some perceived intentional wrong.

If this were a generational Awakening or Unraveling era, then those feelings of anger, paranoia and nationalism would die down and fizzle out. But in fact we're in a generational Crisis era, 63 years after the end of WW II, and that makes all the difference.

The feelings of anger, paranoia and nationalism will not die down. They will continue to increase. Whether those feelings lead to violent confrontation right away, or whether they have to build for a while first, there is no doubt that China and the West are headed for a major crisis war. The exact timing cannot be predicted, but from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the end result is 100% certain. (16-Apr-08) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Web Log Pages

Current Web Log

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-Apr-08 Chinese call for a "people's army" to protect Olympics torch in Australia

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-Apr-08
Chinese call for a "people's army" to protect Olympics torch in Australia