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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-Apr-08
Vladimir Putin finds a way to retain power in Russia.

Web Log - April, 2008

Vladimir Putin finds a way to retain power in Russia.

In a major power shift within the Russian government, Russian president Vladimir Putin will assume TWO powerful roles when he steps down as President on May 7: He'll become both Prime Minister and head of the United Russia party.

On Tuesday, in a surprise to westerners, Putin accepted the invitation to head the United Russia party, even though he isn't even a member of the party.

Vladimir Putin accepts United Russia leadership role. The sign reads, "We will win together!" <font face=Arial size=-2>(Source: kommersant.com)</font>

Vladimir Putin accepts United Russia leadership role. The sign reads, "We will win together!" (Source: kommersant.com)

There's an enormous of game-playing going on here. Putin was elected President twice and could not run for a third term, according to the Russian constitution. He arranged a deal so that his ally Dmitry Medvedev. Medvedev would win the March 2 elections and become President, and then Medvedev would appoint Putin as Prime Minister. That change is scheduled for May 7, when Medvedev will take over the President's office in the Kremlin, and Putin will move down the street to the Russian White House to take the Prime Minister's office.

Putin does not belong to any political party, since it's considered poor practice for elected officials to belong to political parties. However, the United Russia party was formed to support Putin, and on December 2, United Russia won won the Russian Parliamentary election by a landslide.

So Putin is going to head the United Russia party, even though he's not a party member. And since the United Russia party controls more than two-thirds of the Russia Duma, Putin has the votes to change the constitution. In many ways, Putin will have more power than the newly elected President Medvedev.

Putin has rock-star status in Russia. Did Putin arrange to have Alexander Litvinenko poisoned with polonium? That's fine with the Russians. Did Putin arrange to nationalize Yukos and other Russian companies by the vilest means possible? The Russians love it. Did Putin have journalists killed? Did Putin arrange for a cyber attack on Estonia? That's great, according to the Russians. Putin helped Russia recover from 1998 financial collapse, and Russians want him to continue his policies.

So it's not surprising that the Russians will tolerate any method that Putin chooses to use to keep himself in power.

But what about Dmitry Medvedev? Is he just a pawn, theoretically the head of government, but ready to do anything Putin wishes? He says that he isn't.

Russian analysts think that this is GREAT. (Remember that journalists who disagree with Putin occasionally are found full of bullet holes.) According to an analysis by a Russian TV anchor, "For the first time ever we will have a prime minister who will be the head of a party. The mechanism of political power is becoming something new. As president Putin said this will allow better co-operation between the executive and legislative powers."

Western analysts aren't so sure. So far, Medvedev is not saying anything that disagrees with Putin's policies. But what happens when the two men disagree? Will President Medvedev get his way, as Putin used to do when Putin was President? Or will Putin smash him down. My bet's on the latter.

Western analysts point out that Russia is not the kind of country where the leaders compromise with one another. Russia has a long tradition of having one leader -- a Tsar, a dictator, or Putin. There is no national culture in support of a two-leader government.

In the weeks and months to come, we may see a major constitutional crisis in Russia, as the two leaders clash. But barring some threat to his physical survival, it's pretty clear that Putin will the the one to lead Russia into the Clash of Civilizations world war.

But enough about politics. It's time for the evening's entertainment.

You may recall that last month when I wrote about French President Nicolas Sarkozy's political situation, I concluded with a little something about his whirlwind romance and sudden marriage to singer and supermodel Carla Bruni.

Alina Kabaeva relaxes after a tough day at rhythmical gymnastics <font face=Arial size=-2>(Source: pravda.ru)</font>

Alina Kabaeva relaxes after a tough day at rhythmical gymnastics (Source: pravda.ru)

Well, no self-respecting Russian leader is going to allow himself to be outdone by a mere French leader.

Pravda is reporting rumors that Putin has divorced his wife and will marry rhythmical gymnast Alina Kabaeva, a superstar and gold medal winner at the 2004 Olympics in Athens. According to the rumors, Putin divorced his wife in February, and will marry Alina on June 15.

Pravda is also providing a Photo gallery: Alina Kabaeva, the most flexible body of Russia.

And so, who won - Sarkozy or Putin? Who's sexier -- Carla Bruni or Alina Kabaeva?

We'll let you decide. To help you, here's a video of Alina's 2004 award-winning performance. This video is absolutely breathtaking.

(18-Apr-08) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-Apr-08 Vladimir Putin finds a way to retain power in Russia.

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-Apr-08
Vladimir Putin finds a way to retain power in Russia.