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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 5-May-08
Bird flu spreading rapidly through birds in South Korea

Web Log - May, 2008

Bird flu spreading rapidly through birds in South Korea

Despite the culling (killing) of over 5 million birds last month, highly pathenogenic (HP) H5N1 bird flu continues to spread in South Korea, and has reached six of the nine provinces. At the beginning of April, reported outbreaks had reached record levels.

Although not widespread, HP H5N1 bird flu has also been found in Japan, and also in the far eastern region of Russia. What's significant about these findings is their proximity to Alaska.

H5N1 has been confirmed in South Korea in three of the last five seasons. What's different this year is that H5N1 is being found for the first time in late spring, when birds are migrating to the north. This raises the possibility that H5N1 will migrate across into Alaska, from where it can spread south into Canada and the United States.

It was the 2005-2006 season that bird flu spread like wildfire across Asia, into the Europe, the Mideast and Africa. It was expected that it would soon spread to North America via the Atlantic flyways, but miraculously that apparently hasn't happened.

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service isn't taking any chances though, and ten Alaskan villages are taking part in an effort to collect 3,000 swab samples from birds, in order to identify any HP H5N1 before it has a chance to spread.

Taking swab samples in this way, and culling birds from regions where bird flu might spread, is the best method available for preventing the further spread of bird flu.

However, this is not what's happened in eastern India. In January, I posted and article saying that bird flu was spreading rapidly through birds in West Bengal in eastern India.

Now, three months later, West Bengal is still plagued with spreading of bird flu.

Although almost 5 million birds have been culled, the U.N.'s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) is criticizing West Bengal for not taking appropriate precautionary measures.

It seems that a large section of the rural population of West Bengal is dependent on poultry farming to earn their livelihood, and so they resist culling or cooperating with the government. This is a particular problem at a time when global food prices are skyrocketing. The same is true in the neighboring country of Bangladesh.

This permits the virus to continue spreading, and it's now been found in in another Indian province, Tripura.

This kind of uncontrolled spread among birds is the kind of environment that's most likely to give rise to a genetic change that allows H5N1 to pass easily from human to human. That would give rise to a worldwide bird flu pandemic.

As I always have in the past, I once again remind the reader that it's impossible to predict when a particular mutation will permit easy human-to-human transmission, which would result in a worldwide pandemic. This could happen next week, next month, next year, or thereafter.

Once again, as I always say, you and your family should prepare immediately for a possible pandemic. If human to human transmission became public next week on Monday, then by Tuesday all the shelves in grocery stores would be bare. If you stock up on food now, then you'll be sure to have what you need. Even if you think that you can beat the crowds to the grocery store, you should still stock up in advance. If you get your canned food after the panic begins, then you're depriving somebody else of food. But if you stock up in advance, then the shelves will be restocked, and you won't deprive someone else of food.

I once again strongly urge my readers to prepare for an H5N1 pandemic or for any kind of emergency (think of hurricane Katrina) by stocking up on food and water and currency and batteries for the entire household to live on for 2-3 months. This may cost a thousand dollars per person, but it's not wasted money since you can always eat the food later if no emergency occurs. Get canned or dried food that can last a long time in storage, and get a large container for storing water. Keep in mind that stored water becomes impure with time, so you'll also need some purifying tablets or bleach to kill bacteria in the water when the time comes. Finally, get whatever medicines you'll need to take care of yourself and your family for a long period of time. (5-May-08) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 5-May-08 Bird flu spreading rapidly through birds in South Korea

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 5-May-08
Bird flu spreading rapidly through birds in South Korea