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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 8-May-2008
Cyclone Nargis could trigger violence in Burma (Myanmar)

Web Log - May, 2008

Cyclone Nargis could trigger violence in Burma (Myanmar)

Burmese generals are placing obstacles in the way of international aid.

Burma - Satellite photo before (April 15) and after (May 5) Cyclone Nargis <font face=Arial size=-2>(Source: BBC)</font>

Burma - Satellite photo before (April 15) and after (May 5) Cyclone Nargis (Source: BBC)

The statistics from last week's Cyclone Nargis are staggering: Over 100,000 deaths, and a further 70,000 people missing, up to 40% of them children. These figures challenge the 2004 tsunami that killed 220,000 people in Southeast Asia.

The cyclone itself cause less damage than the storm surge it generated. The 120 mile per hour winds created a 12-ft high tidal wave that that swept away entire villages, often killing everyone, up to 20-25 miles inland.

Burma

Burma

The satellite photos above show Burma below and after the cyclone. The tidal waves washed over the low-lying rice paddies in southern Burma.

Much of the rice crop, which was due shortly to be harvested, was lost. This is a disaster all by itself. The price of rice has already more than doubled in the last year, increasing 50% just since January. The loss of much of Burma's rice crop has caused worldwide rice prices to increase every day since the cyclone, up 2.4%.

The United States, Europe, Australia and other countries are trying to launch a massive aid program, such as the one that occurred after the 2004 tsunami.

Unfortunately, Burma's military junta is placing roadblocks in the way of aid, by preventing humanitarian organizations from reaching the people who are starving.

People in helicopters over the affected region "saw the dead bodies from the helicopters, so it's quite overwhelming. The impact of the disaster could be worse than the tsunami because it is compounded by the limited availability of resources on top of the transport constraints."

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This situation has the potential for allowing mass starvation, as well as water-borne infectious disease from wells polluted by the tidal wave.

This comes after Burma was warned 48 hours in advance of the coming cyclone, and did nothing to prepare the people for it.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this disaster, as horrific as it is, has little chance of causing any fundamental changes in Burma's repressive, dictatorial society.

Last year, when the massive protests broke out in Burma, I wrote in "Burma: Growing demonstrations by the '88 Generation' raise fears of new slaughter" that any protests and demonstrations would fizzle quickly, because Burma is in a generational Unraveling era. And that's exactly what happened, as was apparent within a few weeks.

One could hope that this disaster might bring a change to the violently repressive regime, but that's extremely unlikely until around 2018-2020, because of Burma's current position on its generational timeline.

The only way that something could change is if the cyclone caused some kind of generational catastrophe. For example, imagine that it was mostly people 45 years and older who were killed, and younger, stronger people were able to escape. Since it's the survivors of the previous crisis war that inhibit the next crisis war, the disappearance of those people in a catastrophe could cause unexpected violence.

However, that kind of thing is very unlikely. However much further suffering Burma's military junta inflicts on the people, they'll continue to tolerate it for another decade or so. (8-May-2008) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 8-May-2008 Cyclone Nargis could trigger violence in Burma (Myanmar)

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 8-May-2008
Cyclone Nargis could trigger violence in Burma (Myanmar)