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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 8-May-2008
Georgia: "Very close" to war with Russia

Web Log - May, 2008

Georgia: "Very close" to war with Russia

EU and American officials are expressing alarm at the escalating tensions in the Caucasus region.

The Caucasus Mountains run from the Black Sea to the Caspian Sea

The Caucasus Mountains run from the Black Sea to the Caspian Sea

Russia is deploying several hundred toops into Abkhazia, the recessionist province of Georgia. These troops are in addition to the 1500 or so already deployed.

Georgia has several thousand troops deployed on the border of Abkhazia.

Both sides claim that they are not preparing for war, but there are many possible miscalculations on either side that could trigger a military confrontation.

The Abkhazians form a distinct ethnic group that differs from the Georgians, and the Abkhazians take pride in the Kingdom of Abkhazia that existed from roughly 830 to 1020 AD. In the millennium since then, power and control was passed around -- sometimes the Abkhazians controlled the region, sometimes the Georgians, sometimes the Russians. So it's not surprising that the Abkhazians today don't easily accept domination by the Georgians. In fact, the Abkhazians were opposed to the breakup of the Soviet Union, while the Georgians favored it.

On the other hand, Georgia insists that Abkhazia is part of Georgia, not part of Russia.

Two other provinces, South Ossetia and Ajaria, have also indicated that they want to secede from Georgia. The secession of Abkhazia would set a precedent for the secession of other other two provinces as well.

Russia points out that a precedent has already been set: It was set in February of this year, when the Europe and the West supported the secession of Kosovo from Russian-backed Serbia in the Balkans.

The following 3-minute video from Russia Today presents mostly the Russian view of the situation, but also contains statements from Georgian officials:

The Caucasus mountain region is one of the most dangerous regions in the world, and has been the site of many genocidal crisis wars.

Eastern Europe / Western Asia, showing major Orthodox/Muslim fault line regions: Balkans, Crimea, and Caucasus (mountains). Not shown: Muslim Bosnia, east of Serbia in Balkans.

Eastern Europe / Western Asia, showing major Orthodox/Muslim fault line regions: Balkans, Crimea, and Caucasus (mountains). Not shown: Muslim Bosnia, east of Serbia in Balkans.

There are many ethnic groups in this region, but possibly even more important than that is that the Caucasus is one of the major fault line borders between the Orthodox and Muslim civilizations.

People who are new to this web site may be unaware that Eastern Europe is very different from Western Europe, and is (generally speaking) on a completely different generational timeline. World War I was a crisis war for Eastern Europe (but not Western Europe), while World War II was a crisis war for Western Europe (but not Eastern Europe).

Second, Western Christianity is very different from Orthodox Christianity, which is centered in Greece and Russia. Most important is that the greatest and bloodiest wars fought over the last millennium have been between the Orthodox and Muslim civilizations.

The map above shows the three major regions on the Orthodox/Muslim fault line: The Balkans, the Crimea, and the Caucasus.

The Caucasus has enormous strategic importance for many reasons, not the least of which is that oil pipelines run through it from Russia to the Black Sea.

Other trouble spots in this region include the following: Russia's ten year old war with Chechnya, which has spilled over into Ingushetia and Dagestan; Georgia's conflicts with three separatist provinces, South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Ajaria; and Armenia's claim to the Nagorno-Karabakh region of Azerbaijan.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the Caucasus is one of the most dangerous regions on earth, and Generational Dynamics predicts that the Clash of Civilizations World War will have a major component in the Caucasus region. (8-May-2008) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 8-May-2008 Georgia: "Very close" to war with Russia

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 8-May-2008
Georgia: "Very close" to war with Russia