Sudan's Darfur war expands as Khartoum comes under attack by rebels - 14-May-2008 - Generational Dynamics

Sudan and neighboring countries. Sudan has three major regions: Northern Sudan, Southern Sudan, and Darfur (Western Sudan)

Last week, a long convoy of "rebels" from the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) traveled in pickup trucks from Darfur towards Sudan's capital, Khartoum. Sudan's army received some intelligence about the convoy on Thursday, but were still caught completely by surprise on Saturday, May 10, when the rebels attacked Omdurman, an élite suburb of Khartoum. In the ensuing battle, 400 rebels were killed, according to Sudanese sources, and so were 100 members of the Sudanese security forces. In addition, there were numerous deaths among civilians.

Darfur Genocide

U.N. commander claims that the Darfur war is over: The war has turned into "very low intensity" clashes and banditry,... (30-Aug-2009)

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Chad and Sudan may be close to a declaration of war: The peace agreement signed in March seems to be falling apart.... (18-Jun-2008)

Sudan's Darfur war expands as Khartoum comes under attack by rebels: What were they thinking? everyone's asking. But it DOES make sense.... (14-May-2008)

China walks Olympics / Darfur tightrope after Steven Spielberg resigns: Steven Spielberg's resignation earlier this week as artistic adviser to the 2008 Olympics... (23-Feb-08)

The BBC zings America for not sending troops to Darfur: Which do they want - intervention or non-intervention?... (23-Feb-08)

Post-election massacre in Kenya raises concerns of tribal war: Hundreds of people have been killed in ethnic violence since Monday,... (2-Jan-08)

President Jimmy Carter has near-altercation in Darfur: Generationally, Darfur is ten years ahead of Burma.... (5-Oct-07)

Still tilting at windmills, the UN will send "peacekeepers" to Darfur: What "peace" is there to keep in this massive crisis civil war?... (3-Aug-07)

Ban Ki Moon blames Darfur genocide on global warming: Damn! He's blaming the Darfur crisis civil war on America!!... (19-Jun-07)

Senator Joe Biden wants to move troops from Iraq to Darfur civil war: Saying on Meet the Press that we should remove troops from Iraqi "civil war,"... (29-Apr-07)

President Bush gives Sudan "one last chance" to end Darfur genocide: But is Steven Spielberg aiding the genocide?... (19-Apr-07)

U.N. Court blames Serbian people, but not country of Serbia, for 1995 Srebrenica genocide: This is the essence of a generational "crisis war."... (27-Feb-07)

Women's groups protest rape as a weapon of war in Darfur: As the civil war in Darfur continues to grow more violent,... (11-Dec-06)

Kofi Annan makes strongest statement yet on Darfur: The current world's only generational crisis war may be close to an explosive climax.... (12-Sep-06)

UN: Darfur became much worse "while we were watching Lebanon and Israel": Amnesty International reports that Sudan's new military buildup is precursor to a "catastrophe"... (29-Aug-06)

Fighting in Darfur has increased since a peace deal was signed in May.: Palestinians and Israelis will soon go the way of the people of Sudan and Darfur.... (7-Jul-06)

Survivors commemorate the genocidal 1995 Srebrenica massacre: After Rwanda, Srebrenica and Darfur, United Nations says "Never again" - again.... (12-Jul-05)

UN declares that Darfur war was "not genocide," in the most sickeningly cynical story of the year: If mass murders and rapes and forced relocation of millions of people isn't genocide, then what is?... (01-Feb-05)

Explosive conflict seems imminent in Darfur, Sudan: Large quantities of arms and ammunition have poured into Darfur in the last two weeks... (17-Dec-04)

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United Nations: Darfur falling into anarchy: The Sudan government is losing control of areas of Darfur,... (4-Nov-04)

Five African nations oppose intervention in Darfur: Many months ago, I said that the United Nations would never stop the Darfur genocide, which is a force of nature.... (19-Oct-04)

Today's slow-motion genocide in Darfur recalls the lightning quick genocide in Rwanda in 1994: Why do these things always seem to happen in Africa? Understanding Africa's geography explains why. (22-Aug-2004)

Jesse Jackson calls for sending American troops to Darfur: You see how it works? Everyone has a war they like.... (27-Jul-04)

Darfur saga like depraved game of musical chairs: As I've said before, I've gotten good at turning off my own feelings of horror... (19-Jul-04)

"We want to create a light-skinned baby.": That's what a raped black woman told Congressman Frank Wolf when he visited Darfur.... (8-Jul-04)

Darfur genocide: The UN is completely irrelevant: It was just three months ago that Kofi Annan said "never again," referring to the 1994 Rwanda genocide.... (28-Jun-04)

Sudan blamed the attack on neighboring Chad, and has ended diplomatic relations with Chad. Chad denied the claim, and responded by closing its border with Sudan, and suspending economic ties.

Sudan and Chad had signed a mutual non-agression treaty on March 13, in a ceremony that brought smiles of relief from attending officials from the U.N. and other countries. Unfortunately, the treaty has turned out to be a worthless piece of paper.

The JEM attack has brought a "what were they thinking?" attitude from observers and journalists, with the the NY Times calling it a "quixotic attack."

The article quotes one analyst as asking, "What was JEM trying to do? It’s hard to imagine they thought they could capture the capital with 50 to 100 cars." Another analyst referred to the attack as "suicidal."

But from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the attacks makes plenty of sense, because it brings Khartoum and northern Sudan into play in the Darfur war. JEM would view the "Arabs" as having been sitting fat and happy in Khartoum, directing the war from afar, but not paying any consequences, and making Khartoum suffer some consequences will have a significant effect.

Generational Dynamics concerns itself with the attitudes and behaviors of large masses of people, entire generations people. Saturday's attack is panicking many people in Khartoum, and this cannot help but have a significant effect. One report says that the capitals "false sense of safety" has been burst, and quotes a resident as saying, "So if they [the Sudanese army] already knew that rebels were advancing why did they not stop them? They were willing to put our lives at risk? This could have been a blood bath."

Brief generational history of Sudan

Sudan's name in Arabic means "land of the blacks," which gives an idea of the Arab view of the nature of Sudan.

For the purposes of Generational Dynamics, it's easiest to view Sudan as three separate regions, on three separate generational timelines:

I've discussed the generational history of the Darfur war several times on this web site. It's worth reviewing because the media is totally oblivious to this history:

Aftermath of the attack on Khartoum

We cannot read the mind of the JEM leaders who took perpetrated the attack, but looking at the generational history that we've presented, it's clear that the attack was anything but "quixotic."

We've seen the concept of "regeneracy" applied in two different places: the arrest of the Darfur Africans (farmers) by the Janjaweed militia in April 2002, and the Africans' attack on the police station on February 26, 2003. The first of these two events served to cause a regeneracy of civic unity among the "Africans," while the second did the same among the "Arabs" (the Janjaweed militia).

Although not enough time has passed to be certain, it seems likely that the May 10 attack on Khartoum will serve to trigger a regeneracy of civic unity among the residents of Khartoum and Northern Sudan. If this happens, and we probably will know in a few weeks, it would be a highly significant change to the war.

Generational Dynamics examines the attitudes and behaviors of large masses of people, entire generations of people, and a regeneracy in Khartoum would have an enormous effect, probably including some of the following:

It may or may not have been the objective of the JEM leaders to bring about this kind of outcome, but since we seem to have no idea what other outcome they were intending, something like this was probably their intention.

What makes this situation particularly significant is that it changes the nature of the Darfur war itself with respect to the rest of the world.

Up until now, the Darfur war was isolated within the African continent, in particular black Africa (also called sub-Saharan Africa). The involvement of Khartoum and Northern Sudan in the Darfur war is certainly bound to be noticed by the Egyptians.

Egypt's government is being challenged by the Muslim Brotherhood, a 70-year-old radical Islamist group that spawned Hamas and Osama bin Laden. A conflict between rebels and the Sudan government in Khartoum could provoke a similar conflict within Egypt, and the two conflicts could become linked.

This is only a possibility, of course, far from a certainty. But it's the kind of thing that happens to countries in generational Crisis eras, as we approach the Clash of Civilizations world war. At any rate, after the May 10 attack, we can no longer be absolutely certain that the Darfur civil war is an isolated conflict that will never spread to the Mideast. As far as the Mideast is concerned, Darfur and Khartoum are now in play. (14-May-2008) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-May-2008
Sudan's Darfur war expands as Khartoum comes under attack by rebels

Brief generational history of Sudan

Aftermath of the attack on Khartoum

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-May-2008 Sudan's Darfur war expands as Khartoum comes under attack by rebels

Brief generational history of Sudan

Aftermath of the attack on Khartoum

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-May-2008
Sudan's Darfur war expands as Khartoum comes under attack by rebels