Israel conducts mock attack on Iran - 21-Jun-2008 - Generational Dynamics

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Israel conducted a large-scale military exercise in the Mediterranean earlier this month.

Israel sent 100 fighters 900 miles over the Mediterranean sea, along with refuelling planes and helicopters. In a real attack on Iran's Natanz nuclear plant, the 100 fighters would fly 900 miles in the opposite direction.

Ever since the Iraq ground invasion in 2003, there have been constant rumors that an American or Israeli attack on Iran is imminent. These rumors have often been led by Seymour Hersh, who believes that the American armed forces are like Nazis, and who has been making a career out of reporting that such-and-such an Administration official told him that there's an Iranian attack plan in the works. Over the years, I've received quite a few web site reader questions expressing concern about an imminent attack on Iran.

The concerns have never made sense. The "logic" was that President Bush got up one morning and decided to invade Iraq, and therefore he might get up one morning and decide to invade Iran. Actually the 2003 Iraq ground invasion was debated publicly for over a year, in Congress, the United Nation, and in foreign capitals. No such debate has been going on over Iran, so any comparison is vacuous.

So is it different this time? Should we take the new rumors about an Israeli bombing of Iran seriously this time?

The Pentagon says no. The exercise is "sabre-rattling," to scare Iran. "If the Israelis were serious about it, no one would know about it until after it has happened," said an official.

As I explained recently in my comparative strategy of Iran and China, and earlier in "Iran's President Ahmadinejad is facing a growing 'generation gap,'" Iran's increasingly unpopular government is using the nuclear issue to try to gain domestic support. The idea is that if Iran can provoke some kind of military action by the West against Iran, then the Iranians will be unified as they were in the 1979 Islamic revolution.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this strategy is doomed to fail. In 1979, Iran was in a generational Crisis era, and the Islamic revolution DID unify the country. Today, Iran is in a generational Awakening era, and the Iranian people, especially young Iranians, would be much more likely to blame Ahmadinejad for having provoked the attack.

Having said all that, the situation between Israel and Iran is very dangerous.

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is far too unpopular and mired in personal scandals to attempt to lead a war that would follow the bombing of Iran. And the mess he made of the 2006 war against Hizbollah in Lebanon gives him no credibility with the Israeli people. An unprovoked attack against Iran would be an act of desperation.

Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is, by contrast, a near-total madman. His fundamentalist belief in the Mahdaviat -- the belief that the Shia Mahdi is coming soon to save mankind -- combined with his determination to provoke the West, make him a potentially lethal wild card.

The possibility exists that Ahmadinejad will do something so stupid and so provocative that even Olmert will believe he has no choice but to retaliate.

However, nothing like that appears to be imminent right now.

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 21-Jun-2008
Israel conducts mock attack on Iran

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 21-Jun-2008 Israel conducts mock attack on Iran

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 21-Jun-2008
Israel conducts mock attack on Iran