Pakistan is paralyzed as Tehrik-e-Taliban advances in NorthWest - 29-Jun-2008 - Generational Dynamics

Pakistan army abandons negotiations for war to prevent imminent takeover of Peshawar

Pakistan

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After Mumbai's "26/11" nightmare finally ends, India - Pakistan relations face crisis: Enraged Mumbaikers are demanding action and change today,... (30-Nov-2008)

Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba suspected in terrorist attack on Mumbai (Bombay), India: It's a "War on Mumbai" by an attack from the sea.... (27-Nov-2008)

Pakistan nears bankruptcy, as China refuses aid: Pakistan will forced to seek unpleasant help from the IMF,... (20-Oct-2008)

Islamabad Pakistan: Massive Taliban/al-Qaeda terrorist bombing: "Pakistan's 9/11" has left the country in a state of shock,... (22-Sep-2008)

Asif Ali Zardari, widower of Benazir Bhutto, wins Pakistan presidency: The backdrop is Pakistan's fury over US armed forces assault into Pakistan's tribal areas... (8-Sep-2008)

Pakistan's government coalition dissolves following dispute over Taliban: As fighting rages in Pakistan's tribal areas,... (26-Aug-2008)

Pakistan government crisis deepens, following Musharraf's resignation: The government is completely rudderless as suicide bombers shock the country.... (23-Aug-2008)

"The deal is done" for Pakistan's President Musharraf to resign: Pakistan looks into the abyss.... (15-Aug-2008)

Pakistan government combines chaos with paralysis as Musharraf is threatened with impeachment.: The army may have to step in.... (8-Aug-2008)

CIA accuses Pakistan's ISI of aiding in Indian embassy bombing in Kabul: The level of Afghanistan - Pakistan - India tension has substantially increased... (3-Aug-2008)

Pakistan is paralyzed as Tehrik-e-Taliban advances in NorthWest: Pakistan army abandons negotiations for war to prevent imminent takeover of Peshawar... (29-Jun-2008)

Pakistan's tribal areas have become the world nerve center for al-Qaeda terrorism: Al-Qaeda now has "free reign" and "safe haven" in this region.... (6-Apr-08)

Review of recent international stories: Pakistan, Kosovo and Cuba in the news... (20-Feb-08)

Pakistanis are increasingly joining forces with al-Qaeda: The contrast with the Iraq war and al-Qaeda in Iraq is instructive.... (30-Dec-07)

Benazir Bhutto killed by suicide bomber after election rally in Rawalpindi: Here's what to watch for in the next few hours and days.... (27-Dec-07)

Pakistan on high alert after massive terrorist bomb kills 50 worshippers: Al-Qaeda and Taliban terrorists from Pakistan's Tribal Regions... (23-Dec-07)

Pakistan is suspended from the British Commonwealth of Nations: Once upon a time, long, long ago, there was a British Empire.... (24-Nov-07)

Sunni/Shia violence increasing in Pakistan tribal areas as Taliban gains strength: The Pakistan army is massing for an assault against Taliban in Northwest... (19-Nov-07)

Tense Pakistani president Musharaff calls for elections by January 9: After the embarassingly small turnout by Benazir Bhutto supporters on Friday,... (12-Nov-07)

Risk of Pakistan meltdown increases as Musharaff clamps down: We're raising the "conflict risk index" for Kashmir from 2 (medium risk) to 3 (high risk).... (6-Nov-07)

Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf declares martial law and a state of emergency.: In a highly dramatic televised speech to the nation and the world,... (3-Nov-07)

Benazir Bhutto narrowly escapes death from suicide bombers: Pakistan is adrift and at a crossroads today, as its people wonder where to go next.... (21-Oct-07)

Level of conflict growing between Americans and Pakistanis: Foreign minister Khurshid Kasuri says that Pakistanis are getting "angry" and "upset,"... (23-Jul-07)

Pakistan's High Court hands President Musharraf a humiliating defeat: Musharraf's government is in question at a time when al-Qaeda violence in surging in Pakistan.... (21-Jul-07)

Pakistan violence from al-Qaeda and Taliban is increasing: Al-Qaeda and Taliban militants on Afghan border are seeking revenge for Red Mosque attack.... (16-Jul-07)

Pakistan: Over 106 dead in spectacular assault on radical mosque in Islamabad: Radical students hoped to spark an Islamic revolution against Musharraf.... (12-Jul-07)

Riots in Karachi, Pakistan, threaten Musharraf's presidency: Thirty people were killed and hundreds were injured on Saturday... (13-May-07)

Pakistan's President Musharraf faces major crisis : The remarkable détente between India and Pakistan may go down with Musharraf. ... (18-Mar-07)

Al-Qaeda resurging in Afghanistan and Pakistan: Al-Qaeda's greatest threat is to Britain and Europe.... (19-Feb-07)

India claims Pakistan government agency perpetrated the Mumbai railroad bombings: India has promised to show potentially explosive evidence to Pakistan.... (1-Oct-06)

Tensions build as Pakistan cracks down on extremists after London bombings: In Kashmir, a car bomb that kills and wounds dozens, including children,... (21-Jul-05)

"Koran in toilet" rumor is uniting Muslims around the world: From Gaza to Indonesia, Muslims are shouting "Death to America."... (15-May-05)

Pakistan "Black Day" protests fail: Continuing a worldwide trend of increased militarization and police power, President Pervez Musharraf... (02-Jan-05)

China's "sacred responsibility" is to stop Taiwan independence by force: A national defense white paper issued Monday by China threatens... (28-Dec-04)

An eerie parallel between Pakistan and Israel: Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf has proposed a Kashmir peace plan which, like the Mideast "Roadmap to Peace," has no chance of succeeding.... (29-Oct-04)

Massive terrorist bombings yesterday in Pakistan, Iraq and Egypt cause hundreds of casualties across the Mideast in a single day: The Pakistan government has ordered a ban on all public gatherings,... (8-Oct-04)

New Islamic terrorist group claims credit for Bangladesh bombing leading to massive unrest and further violence: Like Pakistan, Bangladesh is overwhelmingly Muslim but still has excellent relations with the U.S.... (25-Aug-04)

Beheadings part of increasing conflict level throughout Mideast: The level of conflict is increasing throughout the Mideast, from Gaza to Pakistan, from Saudi Arabia to Uzbekistan. (23-Jun-2004)

Anti-Shi'ite Terror Attacks in Iraq, Pakistan: So far, Sunni and Shi'ite leaders in Iraq aren't taking the bait. (2-Mar-04)

Pakistan has become increasingly paralyzed in the months since Pakistan's president Pervez Musharraf was forced to give up much of his power last fall, leading to elections in January that ended his monolithic leadership. In its place is a fragmented government with multiple power centers. Leadership has been replaced by incessant bickering, just as it has in the United States Congress and in many countries around the world.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is precisely what was to be expected. In America, the post-WW II Baby Boomer generation never learned any leadership or governing skills, having spent the 60s and 70s protesting and rioting against their parents. Today they're the senior management in political, business and educational institutions across the country, and are unable now to develop the new skills necessary to lead. The middle managers in Generation-X, frustrated by the lack of Boomer leadership, are taking matters into their own hands. But they lack the experience and wisdom of the Boomers, and are much more likely to handle complex situations with simple solutions that backfire, sometimes leading to disaster.

In Pakistan, since Musharaff was forced to resign his role as commander in chief of Pakistan's armed forces, the military and the intelligence services (ISI) have become essentially independent units within Pakistan, pursuing their own policies, often maintaining secrecy from civilian government officials.

Official map of Pakistan, with the addition of the FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas), highlighting Swat Valley (Source: pakistan.gov.pk)

This became apparent last week when it was revealed that in February the military and the ISI had negotiated a secret peace agreement with Sunni militants in Pakistan's tribal regions that border Afghanistan.

This foolish policy has backfired. A terrorist group, Tehrik-e-Taliban (Taliban in Pakistan), led by Baitullah Mehsud, has used the time to gain strength in the region surrounding Peshawar, threatening complete takeover of the city.

This could lead to complete control of the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP), and to an ethnic civil war between the Pashtuns, centered in NWFP, and the Punjabis, centered in Punjab province.

For the United States and NATO forces fighting in Afghanistan, the increasing strength of the Taliban poses significant problems. The resurgence of Taliban strength in Afghanistan means that much of the country is no longer under control of the government, headed by President Hamid Karzai.

Furthermore, since Afghanistan is land-locked, the assault on Peshawar threatens the major route for resupplying the NATO forces. This supply route runs from the port of Karachi to the outskirts of Peshawar and through the Khyber Pass to the battlefields of Afghanistan.

The strategy pursued by the military and ISI has now changed. The peace agreement with the Taliban has ended, and on Saturday Pakistan's army began attacking the militants around Peshawar. That battle is ongoing.

In a separate but possibly related story, thousands of Muslim separatists in Indian Kashmir have been protesting since Monday against India's plan to transfer some land to a Hindu shrine. These protests have led to violence and clashes with police.

Kashmir is an predominantly Muslim area, but has been disputed by both Pakistan and India since the UN partitioned it in 1947 into Pakistani and Indian regions. Pakistan claims the entire region, and points out the partition was supposed to be temporary, and that the UN Security Council mandated an election in 1951 to permit Kashmiri self-determination. That election has never been held, and there have been constant clashes between Indian forces and Kashmiri separatists who want the entire province to be part of Pakistan.

So Pakistan is in a continually deteriorating situation. The government is split into factions and paralyzed, while significant external problems with militants are growing. Pakistan may be close to civil war, and that would inevitably lead to war (and then nuclear war) with India.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, a re-fighting of the massive, bloody genocidal war that followed Partition in 1947 is coming with absolute certainty. Exactly what will trigger this war cannot be predicted, but the increasingly militancy that's facing a paralyzed Pakistani government illuminates a number of different scenarios. (29-Jun-2008) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 29-Jun-2008
Pakistan is paralyzed as Tehrik-e-Taliban advances in NorthWest

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 29-Jun-2008 Pakistan is paralyzed as Tehrik-e-Taliban advances in NorthWest

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 29-Jun-2008
Pakistan is paralyzed as Tehrik-e-Taliban advances in NorthWest