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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 6-Jul-2008
France/EU President Sarkozy is turning the screws on Ireland

Web Log - July, 2008

France/EU President Sarkozy is turning the screws on Ireland

It's beginning to look like a bad situation comedy.

French president Nicolas Sarkozy will not be deterred in getting the "European project" completed.

Eiffel Tower with blue and gold stars, symbolizing the EU colors

Eiffel Tower with blue and gold stars, symbolizing the EU colors

Last week, when he became EU President for six months, he signified his determination by flaunting a dazzling "new" Eiffel Tower with blue and gold stars, symbolizing the EU colors.

He's not going to let a little thing like the Irish people's rejection of the Lisbon Treaty stop him.

So Sarkozy is starting to "isolate" Ireland, to "pressure" Ireland, or, as the London Times puts it, to turn the screws on Ireland.

Sarkozy will try to force Ireland to have a new referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. This has a precedent: When Ireland rejected the Nice Treaty in 2001, they held a new referendum in 2002 and it was ratified.

But as we've said many times, it's the generations of World War II survivors that generally favor European integration, because they believe it will prevent another European war, and it's the post-war generations that generally oppose European integration, because they believe that it will harm them economically. Today there are far fewer WW II survivors than there were in 2002, so the chances of a new referendum leading to a ratification are slim indeed.

But that won't slow Sarkozy's determination. "If the perspective of a second vote in Ireland has been raised it is because it has happened before," he says, referring to the Treaty of Nice. "We need some kind of vote to get out of the situation – in parliament or in a referendum, I don’t know. But when democratic society says ‘no’, you need a democratic solution."

All this is going to come to a head next weekend at an EU summit meeting and on July 21 when Sarkozy visits Dublin. It's expected that Sarkozy will be applying a great deal of pressure to Brian Cowen, the Taoiseach (the Irish word for Prime Minister). And you can just imagine how much the Irish people are going to love that.

Today, 18 of the 27 European Union member states have ratified the Lisbon treaty. Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, Belgium and the Netherlands are expected to ratify it in their respective Parliaments without a problem. Poland and the Czech Republic have indicated that they may not ratify it.

This means that Ireland isn't Sarkozy's only headache.

There's a real feeling of comedy about this, with Sarkozy running around, demanding that everyone sign on, or else. Does Sarkozy believe that that kind of threat will convince the Irish people to ratify the treaty? He'll be lucky to get as many votes as last time.

Recent polls in many countries, including Britain and France, show that support for the treaty is decreasing, and that's not surprising. One web site reader from Paris wrote to me as follows:

"I was born in 1963, from the son of an Armenian immigrant and a German mother. I am French and I had voted "no" at the referendum [in 2005] about the European constitution. But I had voted "no" because I really believe that it was not democratic: the Commission being able to take decision without control, and the list of sectors where this would have been possible not clearly defined + an economic system described in the constitution hence which could have been changed only by revolution.

However if there was a new referendum with a simple question about how to take decisions in the EU, I would vote "yes". I would favor decisions to be taken by a 2/3 majority of the state members, without ponderation by population size. But weeks after the Irish referendum, our politicians only try to organize a new referendum over there. Up to now I have only seen my idea in an academic article.

Our politicians are not worth their wages/advantages."

This writer captures much of reason for opposition among the EU people. The Lisbon Treaty is not an elegant document. Instead, it's a patchwork quilt of rules and regulations, and it's practically impossible to read.

Right now, many EU decisions require unanimous consent by all members. Perhaps replacing this with a simple 2/3 requirement, as the writer suggests, would be better than the current system, but since that would give more political power to the small countries, the large countries would undoubtedly find it unacceptable.

The "European project" is pretty much dead for now. After the Clash of Civilizations world war it will be revived, and it will be successful then. But today there's no chance.

It's not hard to see that this going to end badly. Sarkozy appears to be getting crankier and crankier, and his opponents will become more and more intransigent. The only real question is: How much bitterness and acrimony will surface in next week's EU summit and in EU summits to come. (6-Jul-2008) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 6-Jul-2008 France/EU President Sarkozy is turning the screws on Ireland

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 6-Jul-2008
France/EU President Sarkozy is turning the screws on Ireland