	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

\| HOME \| WEB LOG \| COUNTRY WIKI \| COMMENT \| FORUM \| DOWNLOADS \| ABOUT \|

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Aug-2008
CIA accuses Pakistan's ISI of aiding in Indian embassy bombing in Kabul

Web Log - August, 2008

CIA accuses Pakistan's ISI of aiding in Indian embassy bombing in Kabul

The level of Afghanistan - Pakistan - India tension has substantially increased in just the last few days since I wrote my lengthy analysis of these three countries.

India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh (R) and Pakistan's Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani shake hands at SAARC meeting. <font face=Arial size=-2>(Source: VOA)</font>

India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh (R) and Pakistan's Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani shake hands at SAARC meeting. (Source: VOA)

The principal new development is that the US is now publicly accusing Pakistan and its intelligence services of assisting in the bombing of the Indian embassy in Kabul last month, based on evidence uncovered by the CIA.

US officials say that they've intercepted communications linking Taliban militants with agents from Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) directorate and with the bombing.

On Saturday, there was a previously scheduled summit meeting of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). The meeting was closely watched because the heads of government from India, Pakistan and Afghanistan would all be present.

Afghan President Hamid Karzai attacked Pakistan harshly for providing safe sanctuary to terrorists. "It is because of the safe havens and sanctuary which terrorists are getting in Pakistan, the country lost their great leader Benazir Bhutto. Terrorism is a result of narrow minded politics and institutional support."

India made similar accusations through its foreign minister, but India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Pakistan's Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani shook hands at the SAARC meeting. The two Prime Ministers agreed to push ahead with the peace process.

Nonetheless, relations with Pakistan have taken a sharp downturn in recent days, even just since my recent analysis, for several reasons:

Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) form a safe haven for Taliban and al-Qaeda terrorists. <font face=Arial size=-2>(Source: cfr.org)</font>

Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) form a safe haven for Taliban and al-Qaeda terrorists. (Source: cfr.org)

The CIA evidence of ISI involvement in the bombing of Kabul's India embassy gives relations a particularly nasty turn. Even worse: There are rumors that the CIA has evidence of ISI involvement in the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. Such evidence, if it materializes, would be explosive. (The charge is plausible, because Bhutto was a well-known Shia, and the ISI is mostly populated by Sunni Punjabis.)

The past few days have seen a serious escalation in Pakistan-India fighting across the Line of Control in Kashmir.

There has also been a serious escalation in fighting between the Taliban and Pakistan's security forces around Peshawar in the NorthWest Frontier Province. It's now thought possible that the Taliban could soon take complete control of the NWFP and turn it into a Sunni Sharia state.

The Bush administration has been demanding that Pakistan do much more to control the FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas), but the Pakistan government can't control either Kashmir or NWFP, let alone the FATA.

Now that al-Qaeda has been driven out of Iraq, young foreign fighters from the Arabian peninsula and northern Africa have been going to the FATA instead, substantially strengthening the terrorist group. The "al-Qaeda" name has become a world-renowned terrorist brand name for young al-Qaeda terrorists around the world from southeast Asia through the Mideast to northern Africa.

Al-Qaeda and Taliban have been increasingly successful in killing NATO/American forces in Afghanistan using roadside bombs.

Violence in Afghanistan has reached its worst level since 2001 with more than 260 civilians killed in July alone.

NATO/American forces in Afghanistan are increasingly using missile attacks to target Taliban/al-Qaeda in the FATA. This is infuriating the Pakistanis.

Pakistanis are watching as anti-Pakistan rhetoric has entered the US Presidential campaign. Barack Obama's so-called "antiwar" stance in Iraq has forced him to compensate by becoming increasingly threatening and militaristic towards Pakistan. In response, John McCain has also increased his militaristic rhetoric.

All this occurs in the context of economies in the region close to crisis. Thanks to global doubling of food prices in the last year, as well as sharp increases in energy prices. These have pushed millions of people into poverty, and created double-digit inflation rates in Pakistan, India, and most other countries in Asia. Those who worry about hyperinflation in America should understand that hyperinflation is much more likely in other countries.

The Pakistan region is certainly the most dangerous and unstable in the world right now. An ethnic or sectarian civil war within Pakistan is very much a possibility, and this would quickly spread to India. This would draw in the US, India and Russia fighting against Pakistan, Bangladesh and China. The war could then spread to the Mideast and the Caucasus. (3-Aug-2008) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Web Log Pages

Current Web Log

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Aug-2008 CIA accuses Pakistan's ISI of aiding in Indian embassy bombing in Kabul

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Aug-2008
CIA accuses Pakistan's ISI of aiding in Indian embassy bombing in Kabul