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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 11-Aug-2008
Georgia capitulates in South Ossetia as Russia expands war

Web Log - August, 2008

Georgia capitulates in South Ossetia as Russia expands war

Russia's overreaction may lead to wider war.

Georgia evidently capitulated in South Ossetia, withdrawing its troops after four days of fighting.

The Black Sea, Caucasus, Caspian Sea region

The Black Sea, Caucasus, Caspian Sea region

However, Russian soldiers and tanks continue to pour into South Ossetia. Russian bombers continued to attack military targets throughout Georgia, including an airport south of the capital, Tblisi.

The city of Tskhinvali, the capital of South Ossetia, is being described as a humanitarian disaster, with a shortage of food and water, and thousands of bodies littering the streets. Each side blames the other, and accuses the other of genocide and ethnic cleansing.

Russia appears to be taking total control of South Ossetia. It is not known whether Russia will claim that South Ossetia is now Russian territory.

Russia also is moving tanks and soldiers into another secessionist Georgia province, Abkhazia. It is not known whether Russia will also claim that Abkhazia is now Russian territory.

Russia has blockaded Georgia's Black Sea ports by moving its Black Sea fleet into Georgia's ports. The Russian fleet is normally stationed in Sevastopol, which is in the Crimea, which is part of Ukraine.

As Georgia seems to be pretty much militarily defeated, and western nations are refusing Georgia's request for military support, it seems unlikely right now that the war will spread into a major regional war.

However, Ukraine is taking Georgia's side in the fight, which is not unexpected since leaders of both countries have said they wish to join the European Union and NATO.

On Sunday, Ukraine warned Russia that it might bar Russian navy ships from returning to their base in Sevastopol, because of their deployment to Georgia's coast. Right now, this seems to be the only significant possibility of a lead to a wider conflict.

However, it's really probably up to Russia right now, as Russia is continuing to expand the war.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the Caucasus mountain region, which controls many valuable land routes connecting the Caspian Sea to the Black Sea, has been the battlefield for many crisis wars between the Orthodox Christian and Muslim civilizations, and between different ethnic groups of the same or different religions for many centuries. A new genocidal crisis war in the Caucasus is coming with absolute certainty. (11-Aug-2008) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 11-Aug-2008 Georgia capitulates in South Ossetia as Russia expands war

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 11-Aug-2008
Georgia capitulates in South Ossetia as Russia expands war