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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 27-Aug-2008
Moscow Times: "Russia Adds 2 New Countries to Its Map"

Web Log - August, 2008

Moscow Times: "Russia Adds 2 New Countries to Its Map"

Relations between Russia and the West became colder on Tuesday, when Russian President Dmitry Medvedev announced that he had signed a decree recognizing the breakaway Georgian regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, announcing that he had signed the decree <font face=Arial size=-2>(Source: Moscow Times)</font>

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, announcing that he had signed the decree (Source: Moscow Times)

Medvedev said that it was necessary to protect the indigenous Ossetians and Abkhazians from "genocide" by the Georgians. "This is not an easy decision, but this is the only chance to save people's lives," Medvedev said.

President George W. Bush demanded that Russia reverse its "irresponsible decision." Similar statements came from several European leaders.

It's startling how quickly relations between Russia and the West have deteriorated, in just three weeks.

What's become clear in these three weeks is that there isn't much visceral hatred between Georgians and Russians. The Georgians are furious that the Russians are occupying Georgian territory, but there's no genocidal fury between these two ethnic groups.

What's also become clear, however, is that there is plenty of genocidal fury between Georgians and Ossetians. These two ethnic groups really hate each other, and either of them would gladly exterminate the other.

The Russians see their role as keeping the Georgians and Ossetians from killing each other, causing a war that would ignite the entire Caucasus. The Russians still have a collective memory of the massive civil wars of the 1920 that slaughtered tens of millions of people. To the Russians, the Georgians and Ossetians are beginning to replay those events. Thus the Russians see the need to play peacekeeper, keeping their troops within Georgia proper, and now declaring South Ossetia (and Abkhazia) to be separate nations.

For the West, the collective memory is very different -- of Hitler, World War II, and Stalin. To the West, Russia is replaying those events.

These collective memories don't come from politicians. They come from hundreds of millions of people in the Russia and the West. It's these collective memories from hundreds of millions of people that are driving events in the Caucasus. That's why it makes no difference how much political pressure the Russians and the West put on each other; it's like trying to close a gate to stop a tsunami.

Troubled areas in Caucasus region - including Dagestan, North Ossetia and Chechnya in Russia, and breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia

Troubled areas in Caucasus region - including Dagestan, North Ossetia and Chechnya in Russia, and breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia

If you enjoy ridiculous political machinations, then you'll love the current debate of so-called "international law" on this issue.

In February, the West allowed Kosovo to secede from Serbia. The Russians were strongly opposed, citing "territorial integrity" of Serbia, while the West called it a "special case."

Now the positions are reversed. It's the West that's citing "territorial integrity" of Georgia, while the Russians are calling this a "special case." So-called "international law" is just about the silliest stuff around.

But this business of secessionist provinces is extremely serious stuff. Remember that the American Civil War, an extremely bloody and genocidal war, began when the South moved to secede from the United States in 1861.

There are several regions shown in the Caucasus map above that are secessionist problems. Chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan have Muslim separatist movements that would like to see those provinces secede from Russia. Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan is an Armenian enclave that the Armenians would like to see secede.

In India, you have Kashmir, where there is a strong independence movement among the Muslims. There's Tibet in China, there's Xinjiang in China, and let's not forget possibly the most explosive one of all -- Taiwan wants to secede from China.

Any of these situations could ignite a larger war, just as the secession of the South launched the American Civil War.

This is the stuff of generational Crisis wars. As long as there were people around who remembered the horrors of WW II, the populations were willing to live happily, and avoid making trouble by trying to secede. But now, with most of the world entering a generational Crisis era, and with few WW II survivors still around, it's time for people to learn their lessons again, as the world lurches toward the Clash of Civilizations world war. (27-Aug-2008) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 27-Aug-2008 Moscow Times: "Russia Adds 2 New Countries to Its Map"

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 27-Aug-2008
Moscow Times: "Russia Adds 2 New Countries to Its Map"