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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 4-Sep-2008
Japanese government paralysis continues as Yasuo Fukuda steps down

Web Log - September, 2008

Japanese government paralysis continues as Yasuo Fukuda steps down

This was the third Prime Minister to step down in three years.

Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda resigned on Monday in an effort to break a political deadlock.

"If we are to prioritize the people's livelihoods, there cannot be a political vacuum from political bargaining, or a lapse in policies. We need a new team to carry out policies," Fukuda said. "I thought it would be better for someone else to do the job than me."

Fukuda's unpopularity stems mostly from a worsening economy, but his administration has been largely overshadowed by Japan's relations with China and Korea.

The same was true of Fukuda's predecessors. Junichiro Koizumi's relations with China were constantly strained by his annual visits to the Yasukuni shrine. The shrine honors 2.3 million war dead, including some who have been declared as World War II war criminals.

When Koizumi stepped down in September, 2006, the new Prime Minister was Shinzo Abe. Abe was the first PM to be elected from the generation born after World War II (like America's Boomer generation), and he was considered to be young and hawkish.

Abe's government was brought to collapse within a year, mainly because of highly visible scandals in national health and pension systems.

Abe's replacement was a surprise choice -- Yasuo Fukuda reverted to the older generation of survivors of World War II. Kids who grow up during a crisis war (like America's Silent Generation) are distinguished by their willingness to bring about compromise.

Fukuda was particularly skillful at compromise, and even developed a good relationship with China, thanks to a four-day "feel-good" trip to Beijing in January of this year. However, that wasn't enough to save him, as problems with the economy continued.

Still, Fukuda's resignation came as a surprise, especially since he had reorganized his cabinet only a month ago. His new cabinet members were particularly stunned.

The most likely candidate to replace Fukuda is Taro Aso, the secretary-general of Fukuda's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Aso is also from an older WW II survivor generation, but he's thought to be more hawkish than Fukuda. South Koreans particularly expect Korea-Japan relations to become tenser, with Aso as PM. However, Aso's ascension to PM is not yet certain.

A constant theme of this web site is that one country after another, among those who fought in WW II as a crisis war, is becoming paralyzed. We've seen in Japan before, and we've also seen Pakistan disintegrating before our eyes, as well as paralysis in Israel, Europe, France, and even, to some extent, in the United States.

Speaking of paralysis, Thailand's government has become frozen, thanks to massive political protests in Bangkok by groups determined to bring down the government -- for the second time in two years.

This governmental paralysis comes about because the generations born after the previous crisis war (WW II) do not know how to govern; in fact, they can do little else besides bicker and argue.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is what will lead to a Clash of Civilizations world war. The initial crisis might occur in the Mideast, the Caucasus, the Indian subcontinent, or in the Pacific, but governments in all of these regions will be increasingly paralyzed until some major event forces them to react. (4-Sep-2008) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 4-Sep-2008 Japanese government paralysis continues as Yasuo Fukuda steps down

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 4-Sep-2008
Japanese government paralysis continues as Yasuo Fukuda steps down