Israel's rocket attack on Gaza opens continues a week of sharp escalation - 27-Dec-2008 - Generational Dynamics

Hundreds of Palestinians were killed or injured Saturday, when Israel launched a series of air strikes against Hamas targets in Gaza City and elsewhere in the Gaza strip.

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A Hamas spokesman, speaking on a Gaza radio station, vowed revenge, and to "continue the resistance until the last drop of blood."

This attack followed a week of rapid escalation on both sides of the conflict.

Up until a week ago, both sides were showing restraint, thanks to a six-month truce. But when the truce expired on December 19, Hamas said it would not renew it, citing the Israeli blockade that Israel imposed when Hamas seized power 18 months ago. (See "Hamas' stunning Gaza victory shocks entire Mideast.")

At first, Israeli leaders said that they would continue to show restraint, but once the truce ended, hundreds of rockets from Gaza targeted Israeli towns near the Gaza border.

Israel's warnings became increasingly ominous each day, and by Friday an impending attack, including a ground invasion, had been clearly signaled. Thus, Saturday's attack was expected, although its intensity was not.

The Mideast situation is following a familiar pattern that's existed for years, especially since the death of Yasser Arafat: First, there's a surge in violence, not only between Israelis and Palestinians, but also within the Palestinian community between Hamas and Fatah.

Then, both sides step back from the brink, and calm returns for a while.

This, for example, is what happened in Sri Lanka, when both sides signed a cease-fire in 2002. The cease-fire was broken with low-level violence several times, but both sides always pulled back. Then, in January 2008, the Sri Lanka government announced that it would go for all-out victory against the Tamil rebels, and as I wrote yesterday, the Sri Lanka crisis war now appears close to a full-scale genocidal climax.

Of course, the Sri Lanka crisis war isn't on a lot of people's radars, since that war is not likely to spread into a world war. But a war in the Mideast may indeed spread into a world war.

So, in watching the Mideast situation in the next few days and weeks, the main thing to watch for is signs of either continuing escalation versus attempts at conciliation. It could literally go either way, and in fact is certain to escalate into a full-scale crisis war at some point, whether now or in the future.

We can expect efforts at mediation by several countries -- the US, UK and Europe in the west, and Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia in the Mideast.

We can expect Iran to attempt to further destabilize the situation. Iran has already sold (or given) advanced weaponry to Hamas, in order to provoke a full-scale war, just as Iran provided thousands of rockets to Hizbollah for the 2006 war with Israel.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, a new all-out war between Arabs and Jews is an absolute certainty, refighting the bloody war of 1949 that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. Whether the current situation escalates into all out war, or ends in a new temporary truce, the end result is certain.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Mideast thread of the Generational Dynamics forum.)

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 27-Dec-2008
Israel's rocket attack on Gaza opens continues a week of sharp escalation

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 27-Dec-2008 Israel's rocket attack on Gaza opens continues a week of sharp escalation

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 27-Dec-2008
Israel's rocket attack on Gaza opens continues a week of sharp escalation