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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 7-Jan-2009
India's Prime Minister Singh formally accuses Pakistan re Mumbai terrorist attacks

Web Log - January, 2009

India's Prime Minister Singh formally accuses Pakistan re Mumbai terrorist attacks

It's one thing when a low-level official makes an accusation, and it's quite another when the head of one government accuses another government of complicity in a terrorist attack.

But that's exactly what happened on Tuesday when India's Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh referred to the horrendous November 26 terrorist attack on Mumbai and said:

"There is enough evidence to show that, given the sophistication and military precision of the attack it must have had the support of some official agencies in Pakistan."

He added that Pakistan uses terrorism as an "instrument of state policy."

Here's a brief video of Singh making his statement:

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it's surprising to see Singh being so explicitly accusatory, since he's a survivor of the country's last crisis war, the bloody, genocidal war that followed Partition in 1947, creating the nations of India and Pakistan.

Typically, the survivors of a crisis war, who are in the "Artist" generational archetype (like our Silent Generation), are much more conciliatory. Singh is no young kid who would simply shoot off his mouth. Singh must believe that this announcement was politically necessary to satisfy the Indian populace, especially with elections coming up soon.

By contrast, Pakistan's president, Asif Ali Zardari, is a "young kid," born in 1955, in the generation born after the 1947 war ended. He was thrust into the presidency when his wife, Benazir Bhutto, was assassinated, and is clearly in over his head, as he tries to deal with a recalcitrant army, with terrorist acts by Islamists around his own country, and with the new accusations by the Indian Prime Minister.

When Pervez Musharraf was President, the two leaders were able to work together to produce a détente that lasted for several years. Both leaders were in the generations that survived the 1947 war; Musharraf fled from the Delhi region to what is now Pakistan, and Singh fled from the Punjab region of Pakistan to India. Their shared memories allowed them to negotiate their détente, and their experience gave them the credibility to get their people to accept the détente. Nothing like that is true with Singh and Zardari.

If we look at the situation ethnically, it appears even more dangerous. Zardari is Sindh, with the Shia Muslim religion, and Shia Muslims have historically been allied with Indians of Hindu religion. On the other hand, the "élite" of Pakistan is Punjab, with the Sunni Muslim religion. And so it's quite possible that the "official agencies in Pakistan" that Singh referred to are controlled by Punjabs with little respect for Zardari, and Singh's accusations open the speculation that these agencies went around Zardari and aided in the Mumbai terrorism without Zardari even knowing.

Well, whatever the truth and speculation are, what is undeniable is that Prime Minister Singh's direct accusation of Pakistan significantly raises the level of confrontation between India and Pakistan, and things are being said that can't easily be taken back.

What we're seeing is similar to the situations in Gaza and Sri Lanka that I described recently. Those regions are already deep into a war, while the India/Pakistan situation is earlier on the crisis war timeline. But what is true of all three is that each side in each of the conflicts is becoming increasingly aggressive and confrontational, evoking greater confrontation in response.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, a re-fighting of the massively genocidal war following the 1947 Partition is coming with absolute certainty. Both India and Pakistan are becoming increasingly polarized between moderate and extremist groups, and this polarization extends to Afghanistan, where Nato and American forces are slowly but surely being drawn deeper into the conflict.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, as well as more frequent updates on this subject, see the Afghanistan, Pakistan and India thread of the Generational Dynamics forum.) (7-Jan-2009) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 7-Jan-2009 India's Prime Minister Singh formally accuses Pakistan re Mumbai terrorist attacks

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 7-Jan-2009
India's Prime Minister Singh formally accuses Pakistan re Mumbai terrorist attacks