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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Feb-2009
International community asks Tamil Tigers to surrender in Sri Lanka civil war

Web Log - February, 2009

International community asks Tamil Tigers to surrender in Sri Lanka civil war

In "nightmarish situation," hundreds of thousands of civilians are trapped in battle.

(See "Sri Lanka crisis civil war nears climax, as army captures Mullaittivu" for recent history of Sri Lanka war, and discussion of "explosive climax" concept in Generational Dynamics.)

Sri Lanka 'safe zone' attacked <font face=Arial size=-2>(Source: csmonitor.com)</font>

Sri Lanka 'safe zone' attacked (Source: csmonitor.com)

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The Tamil Tiger rebels have been fighting for 25 years, and have vowed to fight to the death. What would have to happen to cause them to surrender now that the international community has asked them to do so, to avoid more civilian casualties? That's a very interesting question.

The crisis war surrenders that we're most familiar with occurred at the end of World War II.

Hitler vowed that he would never surrender. The Allies firebombed the city of Dresden, flattening and burning the city, killing tens of thousands of civilians. Germany surrendered three months later.

Japan's generals vowed that Japan would never surrender. The Americans dropped nuclear weapons on Nagasaki and Hiroshima. Several days later, Emperor Hirohito ordered the generals to surrender. Some Japanese forces, especially those on isolated Pacific islands, refused to surrender for decades.

So history tells us the Tamil rebels will not surrender and the Sri Lanka forces will not be victorious until many more civilian deaths occur. Will this be an exception? We'll see pretty soon.

Meanwhile, the number of civilian deaths is increasing rapidly. In what is described as a "nightmarish situation," several hundred civilians have been killed or injured in the crossfire in the last three days alone, and hundreds of thousands more are trapped in the small region where the battles are taking place.

In one incident, during a battle where army and rebels were bombarding each other, several artillery shells hit the children's ward of a hospital, killing 9 and injuring 20.

In human terms, what's happening in Sri Lanka is sad and hellish. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it's absolutely fascinating, and will add to the theoretical development of how crisis wars reach a climax.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Sri Lanka crisis civil war thread of the Generational Dynamics forum.

Also, on the financial side, check out the spirited discussion in the thread Blog Post: Can a country default on its debts? Can the US?) (3-Feb-2009) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Feb-2009 International community asks Tamil Tigers to surrender in Sri Lanka civil war

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Feb-2009
International community asks Tamil Tigers to surrender in Sri Lanka civil war