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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 9-Apr-2009
Unrest in Moldova may have international repercussions

Web Log - April, 2009

Unrest in Moldova may have international repercussions

A new confrontation between Russia and the West may be coming.

Few people west of Vienna know anything at all about the country of Moldova, but Moldova may be the next country to prove Ambrose Bierce's aphorism: "War is God's way of teaching Americans geography."

Moldova

Moldova

Here's a brief news video of what's been going on:

Moldova has a large Romanian population, and was actually part of Romania between WW I and WW II.

However, in 1939, when Hitler's Germany and Stalin's Soviet Union signed an unholy mutual non-aggression agreement known as the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact, Moldova was split off from Romania and made part of the Soviet Union.

Moldova remained part of the Soviet Union after WW II. As was Stalin's usual practice, never hesitating to create a situation leading to future bloodshed, Stalin moved thousands of Russians into Moldova, in order to "Russify" the Romanian population. And Stalin set up a large military installation in Transdniestria, a region within Moldova. (See the strip of land at the right side of Moldova on the map to the right.)

Moldova did not participate in the Romanian Revolution of 1989, but when the Soviet Union split up in 1991, Moldova became an independent country.

There's a comparison here to the situation in East and West Germany. When the Berlin Wall came down, Germany was reunited, but the extreme poverty in East Germany has hurt Germany's economy dramatically since then.

But when Moldova became "available" in 1991, the Romanians didn't want to reunite because of the same kind of poverty issue.

So Moldova became an independent country, still with a large Romanian population. And Transdniestria, with its large military installation and sizeable Russian and Ukrainian population, is apparently still under the direct control of Russia.

Today, Moldova is an economic basket case, and is one of the poorest countries in the world. It's even possible that the world's financial crisis will be triggered by Moldova, as much as by any other country.

But even more important, nationalist feelings are being aroused all around.

Moldova's government is still a "Communist" government, with close ties to Russia. Last Sunday's election left that government in control.

The re-election triggered large demonstrations and riots by people carrying Romanian and EU flags.

This is not surprising. Romania is part of the European Union (and also part of NATO). For several years, Romania has been lobbying to get Moldova into the EU, as a solution to the problem of Moldova's poverty. This is also favored by the Moldovans, who are dissatisfied with the failure of the Russian-backed government to improve the economy.

However, this has all led the Communist government in Moldova to accuse Romania of staging an "attempted coup." The Romanian ambassador has been expelled, and the border with Romania may be closed.

For the Russian government, this appears to be another instance of failed Russian policy in its former Soviet states. The Russians would not be pleased with talk of Moldova joining the EU, and there are warnings of repercussions unless things settle down.

This situation might fizzle into nothing, or it might escalate into a full-fledged international crisis. We'll be watching it.

One humorous sidelight is worth mentioning. There have been various "color revolutions" in other former Soviet republics -- the "Orange Revolution" in Ukraine, the "Rose Revolution" in Georgia, and the "Tulip or Pink Revolution" in Kyrgyzstan.

When the demonstrations started, the Moldovan government ran soap operas on television and shut down the phone system. But the young demonstrators reacted by using Twitter to spread the news. As a result, the demonstrators are calling this the "Twitter Revolution."

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, as well as more frequent updates on this subject, see the Moldova thread of the Generational Dynamics forum.) (9-Apr-2009) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 9-Apr-2009 Unrest in Moldova may have international repercussions

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 9-Apr-2009
Unrest in Moldova may have international repercussions