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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-Apr-2009
Sri Lanka army ready for final assault on Tamil Tiger rebels

Web Log - April, 2009

Sri Lanka army ready for final assault on Tamil Tiger rebels

1000 Tigers are trapped in a "safe zone" with 100,000 Tamil civilians.

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I keep referring on this web site to the "explosive genocidal climax" that ends any generational crisis war, and apparently one is about to occur in the 25 year old Sri Lanka civil war. And it looks like it's going to be very ugly.

As I've described in the past, there are two ethnic groups in Sri Lanka: The minority Tamils and the majority Sinhalese. The Tamils have been demanding a separate independent state since 1976, and have been fighting a civil war since 1983. The army of Tamil fighters is called the Tamil Tigers, who are listed as terrorists by the US and Europeans.

(See "Sri Lanka government declares all out war against Tamil Tiger rebels" for a summary of the history of the two ethnic groups of Ceylon, now known as Sri Lanka.)

The civil war followed a completely typical pattern along a generational timeline. As long as survivors of the last crisis war (World War II) were still alive, fighting was sporadic, and punctuated with frequent peace agreements, sometimes lasting years.

The final peace agreement collapsed in 2005, and in 2008 the Sri Lanka government vowed to exterminate the Tamil Tigers by the end of the year.

They didn't achieve that goal, as fighting has continued into 2009. But the government forces have succeeded in defeating the Tigers on one battlefield after another, and have now trapped them within a "safe zone," along with 100,000 Tamil civilians, according to the UN.

Sri Lanka civil war <font face=Arial size=-2>(Source: BBC)</font>

Sri Lanka civil war (Source: BBC)

Because of international pressure, Sri Lanka agreed to a "humanitarian pause," during the two-day Tamil and Sinhala New Year, to allow food and medical supplies to be moved into the safe zone. The humanitarian pause ended on Wednesday, and the government says that it's ready for a final assault.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it appears that both sides are poised for a climax. The government forces are completely out of patience, and will not let the deaths of civilians stand in the way of exterminating the Tigers.

The Tigers will make a last desperate stand, and after years of fighting, will not simply lay down their arms, even if fighting means the deaths of civilians.

No outsiders know for sure what's going on in the battlefield region. The government is not permitting the BBC or other outside media into the region. So all we have are the statements of the two belligerents.

The government is claiming that the Tigers are using Tamil civilians as human shields. Through the Tamil web site, the Tigers are claiming that government forces are causing "unprecedented carnage" of civilians.

Neither side's claims can be verified. But at some point, almost certainly in the next few weeks, the war will be "over." At that time, news organizations around the world will enter the region, interview everyone in sight, and report on what happened. All the atrocities and mass slaughter on both sides will become public knowledge. The world will pass judgment on both sides.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Sri Lanka crisis civil war thread of the Generational Dynamics forum.) (16-Apr-2009) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-Apr-2009 Sri Lanka army ready for final assault on Tamil Tiger rebels

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-Apr-2009
Sri Lanka army ready for final assault on Tamil Tiger rebels