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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 22-Apr-2009
Tens of thousands of Tamil civilians flee fighting, in last days of Sri Lanka war

Web Log - April, 2009

Tens of thousands of Tamil civilians flee fighting, in last days of Sri Lanka war

A "human avalanche" of refugees threatens to overwhelm internment camps.

Sri Lanka army destroys an earthen barrier, allowing tens of thousands of civilian refugees to escape <font face=Arial size=-2>(Source: BBC and The Hindu)</font>

Sri Lanka army destroys an earthen barrier, allowing tens of thousands of civilian refugees to escape (Source: BBC and The Hindu)

The Sri Lanka army announced last week that it was ready for its final assault, and that's going on right now. In a situation described by the International Red Cross as "catastrophic," some 50,000 Tamil civilians are trapped in the "safe zone," a small strip of land, along with the remainder of the Tamil Tiger rebel force.

Tens of thousands more are wading across a lagoon to flee the safe zone, now that the government forces have breached a large earthen wall that was holding them in. However, there is a shortage of food, water and sanitation, and there's a danger of communicable disease.

There are pro-Tamil demonstrations going on around the world. Thousands of pro-Tamil demonstrators are in London, demanding that Prime Minister Gordon Brown take steps to end the fighting. In fact, Brown did call Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa, requesting a cease fire, but the latter refused.

This is not at all surprising. As we've said many times on this web site, the climax of a generational crisis war is an irresistable force. The Tamil Tigers have announced that they're rather die than surrender, and the government will not permit the deaths of civilians keep them from exterminating the last of the Tiger rebels. After 25 years of escalating war, no one is in the mood for any sort of compromise.

Each side in the war is accusing the other side of genocidal acts and civilian slaughter. Since there are no independent reporters in the the war region, neither side's claims can be verified. My guess is that accusations on both sides are true.

However, even if both sides are equally guilty, there's a good chance that the world will consider only one side to be guilty, once the war ends. As the saying goes, "History is written by the victors."

I heard a pro-Tamil spokesman being interviewed on the BBC today. He was arguing for a "political solution," and he said that "military action will not settle anything."

Wrong! It's true that non-crisis wars rarely settle anything, but generational crisis wars do settle things -- at least for three or four generations.

That's what's happening now, right before the eyes of the world.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Sri Lanka crisis civil war thread of the Generational Dynamics forum.) (22-Apr-2009) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 22-Apr-2009 Tens of thousands of Tamil civilians flee fighting, in last days of Sri Lanka war

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 22-Apr-2009
Tens of thousands of Tamil civilians flee fighting, in last days of Sri Lanka war