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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 26-Apr-2009
New 'swine flu' virus is mild for most, but raises pandemic concerns

Web Log - April, 2009

New 'swine flu' virus is mild for most, but raises pandemic concerns

Precautions are being taken around the world.

The new swine flu virus has had its greatest impact so far on Mexico, particularly in the megacity Mexico City, where almost 100 people have died, and thousands have been infected.

It's now spread to other countries, including New Zealand and within the US, to California, Texas, Kansas and New York. There are suspected cases in Spain and France. Asian countries, with memories of the SARS epidemic a few years ago, and with constant worries about a bird flu pandemic, are moving swiftly into flu crisis mode.

As an example of how quickly it can spread, the New York infestation apparently occurred because a group of children took a trip to Cancun. The same is true in New Zealand -- a group of college students just returned from Mexico.

The current news gives no reason to believe that this will have anything like the potency of the avian flu (bird flu) epidemic that's been feared for years.

The incipient swine flu pandemic is raising concern because it's a completely new strain of flu, and combines genes from other viruses. It's called "swine flu" because it originated in pigs. It's unusual for a flu virus to jump from one species to another, but that's what happened here. However, officials are reassuring people that it's still safe to have bacon with your eggs for breakfast, although it's not a good idea to handle raw pork without gloves.

Officials are reassured by the fact that the cases that have developed in the US have been relatively mild. This is not surprising, since new virus forms often mutate to become milder as they spread.

Still, the warning is that anything can happen. The particular danger is what might happen when the new virus (low pathenogenic H1N1) reaches Asia, where it will have a chance to recombine with highly pathogenic H5N1 avian flu (bird flu). The concern is that the highly pathogenic virus will become able to spread easily from person to person.

Hardest hit so far is Mexico City, which is a "megacity" with over 20 million people. Panic has been averted so far, but all large public events have been canceled, schools are closed, and people are walking around wearing surgical face masks. It's possible that similar precautions will be adopted in New York City and elsewhere.

Officials are trying to keep the virus from spreading around the world, but that's probably impossible. They're using the phrase "pandemic potential." By slowing its spread, it's hoped that the virus will continue to become milder, even if it can't be stopped from spreading.

For the latest information on Swine Flu, including precautions that you and your family should take, check the web site for the Centers for Disease Control at http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/ or the web site for the World Health Organization at http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/en/index.html .

Here's an Associated Press video that describes the current situation:

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Swine Flu Pandemic thread of the Generational Dynamics forum.) (26-Apr-2009) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 26-Apr-2009 New 'swine flu' virus is mild for most, but raises pandemic concerns

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 26-Apr-2009
New 'swine flu' virus is mild for most, but raises pandemic concerns