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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 6-May-2009
Hundreds of thousands of refugees flee as Pakistan's civil war expands

Web Log - May, 2009

Hundreds of thousands of refugees flee as Pakistan's civil war expands

The army is massing for a bloody battle in Swat Valley.

Government forces have urged civilians to leave Swat Valley for camps set up for 500,000 refugees. February's so-called "peace agreement" that the Pakistan government signed with the Taliban February, giving the Taliban almost complete control of Swat, has collapsed.

The fighting in Swat Valley was bad enough before the February agreement, but it's expected to be much worse now, as the Taliban have had an opportunity to consolidate and rearm.

In Generational Dynamics, a "regeneracy event" is something that polarizes the civilians, and unifies each for war against the other, thus "regenerating" civic unity for the first time since the end of the previous crisis war.

The Pakistanis have been living in a state of pollyanish denial about the threat from the Taliban for a long time, but two recent "regeneracy events" have shaken them to the point where they're increasingly prepared for war:

Early in April, a 17 year old girl in Swat was publicly flogged for having had an affair. The flogging was captured on a cell phone video:

This video caused national revulsion among Pakistani people, who began to turn against the Taliban.

Instead of honoring the "peace agreement," the Taliban militants expanded their region of control, moving toward Pakistan's capital, Islamabad.

Northwest Pakistan (Source: BBC)

Previously, the people in Islamabad, and throughout the populous Punjab province, had considered the war with the Taliban to be a distant war being fought between Muslims and Americans in Afghanistan. Suddenly, they realized that their own lives were in danger from the Taliban militants.

I've been writing a new article about Pakistan every week or two for the last few months, and each week, Pakistan seems to be closer and closer to complete dissolution.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, a re-fighting of the massively genocidal war following the 1947 Partition that created India and Pakistan is coming with absolute certainty. Both India and Pakistan are becoming increasingly polarized between moderate and extremist groups, and this polarization extends to Afghanistan, where American forces are slowly but surely being drawn deeper into the conflict.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, as well as more frequent updates on this subject, see the Afghanistan, Pakistan and India thread of the Generational Dynamics forum.) (6-May-2009) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 6-May-2009 Hundreds of thousands of refugees flee as Pakistan's civil war expands

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 6-May-2009
Hundreds of thousands of refugees flee as Pakistan's civil war expands