	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

\| HOME \| WEB LOG \| COUNTRY WIKI \| COMMENT \| FORUM \| DOWNLOADS \| ABOUT \|

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-May-2009
With over a million refugees, Pakistan is close to full-scale civil war.

Web Log - May, 2009

With over a million refugees, Pakistan is close to full-scale civil war.

A BBC study has found extensive Taliban control of Northwest Frontier Province.

Pakistan's FATA and Northwest Frontier Province - government vs Taliban controlled districts <font face=Arial size=-2>(Source: BBC)</font>

Pakistan's FATA and Northwest Frontier Province - government vs Taliban controlled districts (Source: BBC)

The adjoining map is the result of a BBC study that shows that only 40% of NWFP is still under government control, while the Taliban has partial or full control of the other 60%.

The portion of the map on the left (from Bajaur district on the top down to South Waziristan district at the bottom) is Pakistan's FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas).

Up until a year or two ago, the Taliban presence was only being felt in the FATA, but in the last couple of years, the Taliban have extended their control throughout the NWFP, as shown on the map.

It's hard to believe that Swat Valley was, until a couple of years ago, a posh ski resort that vacationers visited from around the world. Today it's been practically destroyed by the Taliban.

In February, the Pakistan government essentially capitulated to the Taliban, by signing a "peace agreement" giving the Taliban control of Swat Valley, in return for the Taliban laying down their arms. Of course, the Taliban did not lay down their arms, but instead used the "peace" as an opportunity to take control of Lower Dir and Buner districts, the latter very close to Islamabad.

Early this month, the Pakistan army opened an offensive to drive the Taliban out of Lower Dir and Buner.

In the last few days, this offensive has extended far into Swat. The fighting has caused 1 to 1.5 million refugees to flee their homes, running to government-supplied refugee camps.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, when you have a civil war with over a million refugees, then the war is very close to crossing a line to a full-scale crisis war.

The "optimistic view," being promoted by the Pakistan government, is that the Taliban will be defeated quickly, allowing people to return to their homes. I'll believe that when I see it.

What appears to be happening is that the civil war is escalating quickly. Things could blow up very quickly in scenarios that can't currently be predicted.

The most dangerous scenarios involve intervention by either India or the US. This might happen if, for example, it is feared that Taliban might gain control of Pakistan's nuclear materials or weapons.

Official map of Pakistan, with the addition of the FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas), highlighting Swat Valley <font face=Arial size=-2>(Source: pakistan.gov.pk)</font>

Official map of Pakistan, with the addition of the FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas), highlighting Swat Valley (Source: pakistan.gov.pk)

The civil war brings two ethnic groups into conflict. The army is largely Punjabi, while the Taliban are Pashtuns who have adopted Islamist terror tactics. Most of the refugees are also Pashtuns. The Punjabis make up 45% of Pakistan's population, while the Pashtuns make up 15%. Both of these groups are Sunni Muslim.

If India or the US intervened on Pakistani soil, it's quite likely that the Punjabis and the Pashtuns would stop fighting each other, and would unite to fight the invaders.

The Sindhis make up 14% of Pakistan's population, and they're Shia Muslim, historically aligned in wars with the Hindus against the Sunni Muslims.

We can't predict what scenario this increasingly dangerous civil war will follow, but we can see many possibilities involving these different ethnic groups.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, a re-fighting of the massively genocidal war following the 1947 Partition that created India and Pakistan is coming with absolute certainty. The rapid escalation of the Pakistani civil war appears to bring re-fighting of the 1947 war much closer.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, as well as more frequent updates on this subject, see the Afghanistan, Pakistan and India thread of the Generational Dynamics forum.) (16-May-2009) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Web Log Pages

Current Web Log

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-May-2009 With over a million refugees, Pakistan is close to full-scale civil war.

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-May-2009
With over a million refugees, Pakistan is close to full-scale civil war.