Tamil Tigers surrender, ending the Sri Lanka crisis civil war - 17-May-2009 - Generational Dynamics

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 17-May-2009

Tamil Tigers surrender, ending the Sri Lanka crisis civil war

"We have decided to silence our guns. Our only regrets are for the lives lost and that we could not hold out for longer. We can no longer bear to see the innocent blood of our people being spilled."

With this dramatic statement from Tamil Tiger PR chief Selvarasa Pathmanathan, appearing on the TamilNet web site, the Sri Lanka civil war is coming to an end.

The Tamil Tigers, formally known as the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), have been fighting a civil war for a Tamil homeland ("Tamil Eelam") for 26 years. The war turned into a generational Crisis civil war early in 2008. (See "Sri Lanka government declares all out war against Tamil Tiger rebels.")

(Please download and read the new article (PDF file), "International business forecasting using System Dynamics with generational flows."

This paper brings several articles together in one place and updates many other materials from this web site, including the application of Systems Dynamics and Chaos Theory, and the history and basics of generational theory. It shows how Generational Dynamics can be used by commercial and government organizations to forecast developments in foreign countries.)

Related Articles

Sri Lanka
14-Mar-10 News - Sri Lanka Tamils reject homeland: A German college student validates Generational Dynamics... (14-Mar-2010)

27-Jan-10 News - Sri Lanka elections, and Turkey returns to its roots: Higher tensions between North and South Korea.... (27-Jan-2010)

Tamil Tigers renounce violence, to join Sri Lanka political process: New photos show "genocidal fury" at climax of civil war.... (25-May-2009)

Jubilant Sri Lanka celebrates, as President reaches out to the Tamils: But President Rajapaksa will need to follow words with actions.... (20-May-2009)

Tamil Tigers surrender, ending the Sri Lanka crisis civil war: "We have decided to silence our guns. Our only regrets are... (17-May-2009)

Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Gaza are all following the same path.: But the end is in sight for Sri Lanka.... (11-May-2009)

Tens of thousands of Tamil civilians flee fighting, in last days of Sri Lanka war: A "human avalanche" of refugees threatens to overwhelm internment camps.... (22-Apr-2009)

Sri Lanka army ready for final assault on Tamil Tiger rebels: 1000 Tigers are trapped in a "safe zone" with 100,000 Tamil civilians.... (16-Apr-2009)

Cricketing world in shock after attack on Sri Lanka team in Pakistan: Lashkar-e-Taiba is suspected in the brutal attack in Lahore,... (4-Mar-2009)

International community asks Tamil Tigers to surrender in Sri Lanka civil war: In "nightmarish situation," hundreds of thousands of civilians are trapped in battle.... (3-Feb-2009)

Sri Lanka crisis civil war nears climax, as army captures Mullaittivu: An explosive battle among 300,000 civilians is feared.... (28-Jan-2009)

Gaza war heads toward cease-fire, while violence surges in Sri Lanka: Thousands of civilians' lives are at risk by army attacking terrorists responsible for suicide bombings.... (19-Jan-2009)

In Gaza and Sri Lanka, war slides into genocide.: Both wars are getting increasingly meaner and nastier.... (6-Jan-2009)

Sri Lanka crisis war appears close to a genocidal climax.: There are two crisis wars in the world today: Darfur and Sri Lanka.... (27-Dec-2008)

Sri Lanka government declares all out war against Tamil Tiger rebels: Sri Lanka has said it is formally withdrawing from a 2002 ceasefire agreement... (4-Jan-08)

Tamil Tiger rebel aircraft bomb government airfields, escalating Sri Lanka civil war: Sri Lanka may soon join Darfur as another generational crisis war.... (26-Mar-07)

Bird flu spreading rapidly in Asia during New Year's celebrations: This is the most dangerous time of the year for possible pandemic mutation.... (17-Feb-07)

Australian Govt. warns citizens to avoid Sri Lanka: The war between Tamil Tiger rebels and Sri Lanka government continues to escalate,... (20-Oct-06)

While world watches Lebanon, Sri Lanka goes to war: Tamil Tiger rebels have engaged Sri Lanka government forces in heavy fighting... (3-Aug-06)

Massacre of civilians in Sri Lanka leading the way to a crisis war: From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the gratuitous murder of civilians in a war... (18-Jun-06)

Violence leading to Sri Lanka war is increasing: Tamil Tiger rebels are being blamed for a mine attack on a bus, killing 60 people including children.... (16-Jun-06)

Sri Lanka appears close to war: A naval attack by Tamil Tiger rebels and government retaliation by air may spiral into full-scale war.... (12-May-06)

Indian MP says that bird flu is a 'scam' to sell 'Tamil-flu': This sounds like a joke, but unfortunately it isn't.... (3-Dec-05)

The surrender, which brought cheers and celebrations in Colombo, the nation's capital, came after the Sri Lankan army announced that it had freed all of the 50,000 Tamil civilians that the UN estimated were trapped within the LTTE militants in the so-called "safe zone," which has been the scene of massive slaughter in recent weeks. Government forces had encircled the rebels and cut them off from the sea yesterday, taking control of the entire island’s coast for the first time, cutting off the militants' last escape route. The remaining militants are are holed up in a small patch of jungle, according to government sources.

As I wrote last week in, "Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Gaza are all following the same path," this surrender is nothing like the numerous failed "peace agreements" that have been signed over the years.

This is the climax of a generational Crisis war, and so this surrender is comparable to the surrender of the Germans and Japanese in 1945, ending World War II, or the surrender of the Confederacy, ending the American Civil War in 1865.

The next few days and weeks are very critical to the future of Sri Lanka as a nation. (See discussion of "Pólya's Urn" in "Generational Dynamics forecasting methodology.") What the government does in the next few days will affect every aspect of Sri Lankan society for decades to come.

Here are some things to watch for in the coming weeks:

What will happen to the tens of thousands of refugees currently in refugee camps, including thousands who are sick and wounded? The government's attitude toward the displaced Tamils, and to the Tamil population in general, will greatly affect how the Tamils view the government and the Sinhalese majority in the future.

What will Sri Lanka's president Mahinda Rajapaksa say when he delivers his victory speech to the nation in a day or two?

What is the fate of Vellupillai Prabhakaran, the original LTTE founder and leader, who has been leading the militant forces for decades? His location is unknown, and it's been reported that he's ordered his bodyguards to kill him and burn his body if he is near capture. (This would be reminiscent of Hitler's suicide in his Berlin bunker in 1945.)

Will the government announce a reconstruction plan, something like the "Marshall Plan" for Europe that followed WW II, or the Reconstruction era that followed America's Civil War?

Pro-Tamil groups and foundations around the world have been funding the LTTE war efforts. How will they react to the LTTE surrender, and will they make a commitment to the peace?

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is a very special time for Sri Lanka. With the end of this Crisis civil war, it's almost literally the birth of a new society and a new nation. In the next few days and weeks, we'll see what kind of society and nation is formed.

The following is the full statement of surrender appearing on the TamilNet web site:

Dignity and respect for our people is all we ask – Pathmanathan

[TamilNet, Sunday, 17 May 2009, 08:22 GMT]

“Despite our plea to the world to save the thousands of people in Vanni from the clutches of death, the silence of the international community has only encouraged the Sri Lankan military to execute the war to its bitter end. In the past 24 hours, over 3000 civilians lie dead on the streets while another 25,000 are critically injured with no medical attention. To save the lives of our people is the need of the hour. Mindful of this, we have already announced to the world our position to silence our guns to save our people," Selvarasa Pathmanathan, the head of LTTE’s International Diplomatic Relations has said in an urgent statement issued Sunday.

"This we have appealed to the countries of the world and called on them to halt the unrelenting massacre of our people by the Sri Lankan armed machinery. We are extremely saddened that this plea has fallen on deaf ears”, Mr Pathmanathan further said as he desperately called on the International Community to take immediate actions to save the Tamil people caught in the war zone and take necessary actions to protect the cadres and people giving themselves up to the military.

“This battle has reached its bitter end. Against all odds, we have held back the advancing Sinhalese forces without help or support, except for the unending support of our people. It is our people who are dying now from bombs, shells, illness and hunger. We cannot permit any more harm to befall them. We remain with one last choice – to remove the last weak excuse of the enemy for killing our people. We have decided to silence our guns. Our only regrets are for the lives lost and that we could not hold out for longer. We can no longer bear to see the innocent blood of our people being spilled," Mr. Pathmanathan said.

The LTTE had for almost three decades fought the Sri Lankan military and defended its right to carry arms as a means of protecting the Tamil people living in the island. After unilaterally walking away from the Peace Process that began in 2002 with Norwegian facilitation, The Sri Lankan Government had opted for a military solution to end the crisis. Since the war intensified in 2007, several thousand Tamil civilians have died. The recent thrust by the military into the Northern strong holds of the Tamils have seen an escalation in the deaths and has resulted in untold misery with people succumbing to starvation and lack of medical supplies.

“We need to do everything within our means to stop this carnage. If this means silencing our arms and entering a peace process, that is something that we have already agreed to,” said Mr Pathamanathan. “This is the need of the hour. These are historically unprecedented times and require historically prudent decisions. If this means saving the lives of thousands of people, it needs to be done” he stated.

Mr Pathamanathan further stated that, “There is not a person who can doubt the LTTEs fearless and unending commitment to this cause with which we have been entrusted by our people. Know that the Tamils are a people deeply rooted in culture and history. No force can prevent the attainment of justice for our people. Our sons and daughters have taken up this call without question and without hesitation or fear of death. None have hesitated to make the supreme sacrifice for the cause of liberating their motherland. We have not forgotten that it is for our people that we fight. In the face of the current conditions, we will no longer permit this battle to be used as a justification by the forces of the Sinhala state to kill our people. We willingly stand up with courage and silence our guns. We have no other option other than to continue our plea to the international community to save our people”.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Sri Lanka crisis civil war thread of the Generational Dynamics forum.) (17-May-2009) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

\| HOME \| WEB LOG \| COUNTRY WIKI \| COMMENT \| FORUM \| DOWNLOADS \| ABOUT \|

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 17-May-2009 Tamil Tigers surrender, ending the Sri Lanka crisis civil war

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 17-May-2009
Tamil Tigers surrender, ending the Sri Lanka crisis civil war