	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 20-May-2009
Jubilant Sri Lanka celebrates, as President reaches out to the Tamils

Web Log - May, 2009

Jubilant Sri Lanka celebrates, as President reaches out to the Tamils

But President Rajapaksa will need to follow words with actions.

This is a very exciting moment for Generational Dynamics, for a couple of reasons.

The main reason is that, right before our eyes, we're seeing a country make the transition from a Crisis war and Crisis era (fourth turning) into a Recovery era (first turning). These moments are quite rare. There were a couple of them in the 1990s, but I wasn't paying attention. I'm certainly paying attention this time.

As I've written several times, the end of the Sri Lanka crisis civil war is no ordinary peace agreement. It's the climax of a generational crisis civil war and, as such, it's equivalent to the surrender of Germany or Japan in WW II, or the surrender of the South in America's Civil War. There may still be occasional "renegade" acts of violence, but there's no question that the war is over.

We're now seeing Sri Lanka move quickly in a new direction -- from being a divided nation with two warring ethnic groups (majority Sinhalese and minority Tamils) into a country healing itself, reconstructing itself, bringing the two ethnic groups together.

The most important component is that the victors (the Sinhalese) must be "generous in victory." The first step was the victory speech to Parliament, given by President Mahinda Rajapaksa. He began the speech as follows:

"I address this session of Parliament at the historic occasion when the hopes and expectations of the Sinhala, Tamil, Muslim, Burgher, Malay and all people of our country for several decades, to see a Sri Lanka that is free of murderous terrorism, have been realized."

He then spoke in the Tamil language:

"Friends,

This is our country.

This is our mother land.

We should live in this country as children of one mother.

No differences of race, caste and religion should prevail here.

Over the last thirty years, the LTTE has killed many people Sinhalese, Tamil and Muslims - many have been killed.

The war against the LTTE is not a war against Tamil people.

Our aim was to liberate our Tamil people from the clutches of the LTTE.

Our heroic forces have sacrificed their lives to protect Tamil civilians.

The victory we have gained by defeating LTTE is the victory of this nation, and the victory of all people living in this country.

Protecting the Tamil speaking people of this country is my responsibility.

That is my duty.

All the people of this country should live in safety without fear and suspicion.

All should live with equal rights.

That is my aim.

Let us all get together and build up this nation."

The full speech is loaded with references to Tamil history and Sri Lankan history, and is well worth reading in its entirely for those who are interested in such things.

Speaking in Tamil has great symbolism, but what's needed now is to go beyond words. Rajapaksa will have to show that the Tamils will share government with the Sinhalese, that the Tamils will be treated equally, that the tens of thousands of Tamils living in refugee camps will be quickly given homes.

Right now, every day, every hour, every minute counts. If several days go by with no action, then the Tamils will conclude that they'll continue to be an oppressed minority. On the other hand, quick action right now can convince Tamils that they have a chance for equal opportunity in a Sinhalese-dominated Sri Lanka.

This is nothing new -- it's happened at the climax of every crisis civil war in every society in history. In each of those wars, the survivors, both the winners and the losers, decide that the war was so horrible that they must never let it happen again. Their children, however, feel no such horror, and so when the survivors are finally gone, their children and grandchildren have another horrible war, usually 80 or so years later. That's how the generational cycle repeats itself.

I mentioned that there are two reasons why this is an exciting moment for Generational Dynamics. The second reason is that this is good news. Almost all the Generational Dynamics predictions that I write about on this web site are horrible news -- a new Great Depression and a new world war. (Incidentally, those of you who have been lured back into the stock market by the surges in the last day or two are going to lose a lot of money.)

But this is really good news, for a change. Sri Lanka is, in a real sense, a brand new country. Just as a newborn baby can bring joy to its parents, at least for a while, the world can enjoy the birth of a new country at peace, at least for a while.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Sri Lanka crisis civil war thread of the Generational Dynamics forum.) (20-May-2009) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 20-May-2009 Jubilant Sri Lanka celebrates, as President reaches out to the Tamils

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 20-May-2009
Jubilant Sri Lanka celebrates, as President reaches out to the Tamils