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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-Jun-2009
WHO declares a worldwide H1N1 "mild" swine flu pandemic

Web Log - June, 2009

WHO declares a worldwide H1N1 "mild" swine flu pandemic

The big question is: What's going to happen in the fall?

Saying that "We are in the earliest days of the pandemic," Dr Margaret Chan, Director-General of the World Health Organization, announced that "the level of influenza pandemic alert [has been raised] from phase 5 to phase 6. Here are some excerpts from her statement:

"World now at the start of 2009 influenza pandemic

In late April, WHO announced the emergence of a novel influenza A virus.

This particular H1N1 strain has not circulated previously in humans. The virus is entirely new.

The virus is contagious, spreading easily from one person to another, and from one country to another. As of today, nearly 30,000 confirmed cases have been reported in 74 countries.

This is only part of the picture. With few exceptions, countries with large numbers of cases are those with good surveillance and testing procedures in place.

Spread in several countries can no longer be traced to clearly-defined chains of human-to-human transmission. Further spread is considered inevitable.

I have conferred with leading influenza experts, virologists, and public health officials. In line with procedures set out in the International Health Regulations, I have sought guidance and advice from an Emergency Committee established for this purpose.

On the basis of available evidence, and these expert assessments of the evidence, the scientific criteria for an influenza pandemic have been met.

I have therefore decided to raise the level of influenza pandemic alert from phase 5 to phase 6.

The world is now at the start of the 2009 influenza pandemic.

We are in the earliest days of the pandemic. The virus is spreading under a close and careful watch."

Chan pointed out that so far the virus has been mild, relative to other flu viruses, but that the most severe infections have been in young people.

Concerns for the fall

As we discussed last month in "Rapid worldwide H1N1 swine flu spread is raising big concerns for the Fall," young people are particularly vulnerable because they have the strongest immune systems, and H1N1 deaths are most often caused by an overreaction of the immune system.

Timeline: Three waves of 1918 Spanish flu pandemic <font face=Arial size=-2>(Source: CDC)</font>

Timeline: Three waves of 1918 Spanish flu pandemic (Source: CDC)

There's a great deal of concern that we may be facing a repeat of the 1918-1919 Spanish Flu pandemic that killed tens of millions of people.

The graph on the right shows the three waves of the 1918 pandemic, and so far we seem to be following the same path, and this time it would kill hundreds of millions of people.

Chan indicated the same thing when she said, "We are in the earliest days of the pandemic." Here are some more excerpts:

"Although the pandemic appears to have moderate severity in comparatively well-off countries, it is prudent to anticipate a bleaker picture as the virus spreads to areas with limited resources, poor health care, and a high prevalence of underlying medical problems. ...

A characteristic feature of pandemics is their rapid spread to all parts of the world. In the previous century, this spread has typically taken around 6 to 9 months, even during times when most international travel was by ship or rail.

Countries should prepare to see cases, or the further spread of cases, in the near future. Countries where outbreaks appear to have peaked should prepare for a second wave of infection."

As I wrote last month, it's difficult of impossible to quantify this. The best I can come up with is this: There appears to be a non-trivial probability that an extremely virulent swine flu pandemic will occur in the fall. But whether "non-trivial probability" is 1%, 5%, 10% or 15%, I really don't know.

We may get some further indication in the next couple of months from Australia and the Southern Hemisphere, where it's winter, and the height of the flu season.

Preparation

One thing that this web site is all about is preparation. Even if the flu virus remains mild, we can almost certainly expect to see more schools, restaurants and other businesses closed on a temporary basis, and public events canceled.

What will you do when that happens? What will you do if the stores in your neighborhood or town are closed? What will you do if the kids have to stay home from school? What will you do if you and your family are quarantined in your home?

These are things you can prepare for today -- while you're well, while stores and schools are still open. You can stock up on canned food. You can buy a couple of board games to pass the time. You can be prepared with medicines. Something as simple as a couple of boxes of tissues can make a difference. You might also want to think of ways to "put your affairs in order." Regardless of the flu or anything else, everyone should have an up to date will at all times.

You don't have to spend a lot of money, so that if this whole flu scare fizzles, then you haven't lost anything. But this is the time to keep your head and prepare, making some specific plans for how you and your family will survive if the worst happens.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Swine Flu Pandemic - Preparation thread of the Generational Dynamics forum.) (13-Jun-2009) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-Jun-2009 WHO declares a worldwide H1N1 "mild" swine flu pandemic

Concerns for the fall

Preparation

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-Jun-2009
WHO declares a worldwide H1N1 "mild" swine flu pandemic