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As Americans withdraw from cities, Brookings admits there's no civil war.
In December 2006, I quoted Brookings Institution analyst Ken Pollack as saying, "Iraq is in a dangerous state, and it's headed for a Bosnia or Lebanon state of all-out civil war."
I commented on this quote as follows:
This is why journalists, pundits and politicians keep getting their predictions wrong. You'd think that Ken Pollack was some sort of expert, but he has NO IDEA what's going on. He simply made that "fact" up, because he and all these other journalists and pundits make ideological predictions, and they have as much chance of getting them right as if they flipped a coin. As I wrote a few days ago, Thomas Friedman and other pundits have gotten one prediction wrong after another. Generational Dynamics is the only methodology which has produced correct predictions, and this is the only web site in the world that tells you what's going on in the world, and what's going to happen."
Now, 2½ years later, US soldiers are withdrawing from Iraqi cities, and security duties are being taken over by Iraqi forces. It's still my expectation that US forces will be in Iraq for years to come, but there will not be a civil war in Iraq's generational Awakening era.
Now, Brookings appears finally to agree. Michael E. O'Hanlon of Brookings writes the following:
This is a grudging admission by O'Hanlon, who attempts to hedge by saying that there is "no longer" a civil war, as if there ever was.
Brookings Institution does a full reversal on Iraq war:
As Americans withdraw from cities, Brookings admits there's no civil war....
(1-Jul-2009)
On "60 Minutes," Bob Woodward makes ridiculous claims about Iraq.:
He says the surge succeeded because of some magic new military technique....
(7-Sep-2008)
Iraq's Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr turns from arms to "culture":
This follows several Sunni "Tribal Awakenings" to expel al-Qaeda....
(10-Aug-2008)
Obama continues to damage his candidacy with his Iraq policy.:
Obama is hurting himself by bobbing and weaving on the success of the "surge."...
(27-Jul-2008)
The Iraq war may be related to the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.:
On the first anniversary of the successful "surge" strategy,...
(17-Feb-08)
Casualties are down sharply in Iraq.:
This issue has been a spectacular validation of Generational Dynamics theory....
(31-Oct-07)
Washington Post says that al-Qaeda in Iraq is "crippled":
Meanwhile, Iraqi citizens' political opposition to America is growing....
(16-Oct-07)
Iraq: Suicide bombers interrupt celebrations in Baghdad over soccer win:
Iraq's stunning 4-3 soccer victory over South Korea in the Asia Cup semi-final...
(26-Jul-07)
The al-Askariya Shrine in Samarra, Iraq, is bombed again:
Last year's bombing triggered months of vicious sectarian violence in Baghdad,...
(14-Jun-07)
Iraq's Moqtada al-Sadr tells followers to attack Americans, not each other:
This could be good news....
(9-Apr-07)
Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq :
This is exactly the kind of thing that generational theory predicts.
(1-Apr-2007)
Robert Gates on "civil war" in Iraq.:
Following the release of the Iraq National Intelligence Estimate on Friday,...
(2-Feb-07)
News as theatre: NBC announces it will call Iraq war a "civil war":
On Monday morning on the "Today Show,"...
(29-Nov-06)
Debate over civil war in Iraq rages over semantics:
An actual crisis civil war in Iraq is impossible, but it's now embroiled in the November elections,...
(23-Aug-06)
Washington becomes hysterical again over an Iraqi 'civil war' :
A civil war in Iraq is impossible, as I've said many times, because only one generation has passed since the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s. Here's some additional historical information.
(7-Aug-2006)
Bombing of 1200 year old Shi'ite mosque inflames Iraq to the verge of massive civil war rhetoric:
Shi'ites conducted over 90 revenge attacks on Sunni shrines on Wednesday,...
(23-Feb-06)
Iraqi Sunni and Shi'ite clerics call for restraint:
Analysts, pundits and journalists are still predicting civil war, and they're still getting it wrong....
(23-May-05)
Brent Scowcroft predicts an "incipient civil war" for Iraq:
Pundits are returning to wishful thinking as the January 30 election approaches...
(09-Jan-05)
Al-Sadr's Shi'ite militia fighters turn in their weapons:
The war in Iraq took a significant turn this week when the Shi'ite militias agreed to disarm,...
(13-Oct-04)
The press is talking about another "uprising" in Iraq. Yawn.:
Nothing shows more how clueless the press is about what's going on in Iraq than this constant talk about civil war and uprisings....
(7-Aug-04)
Iraq Today vs 1960s America (Revised):
They have much in common: Bombings, assassinations, student demonstrations, violent riots, calls for insurrection and civil war and harsh rhetoric. That's much more than a coincidence.
(8-May-2004)
What Iraqi Civil War?: Early in 2003, I predicted that there would be no popular uprising against the Americans, and that there would be no civil war. After the overthrow of Saddam, I said that an Iraqi civil war was impossible. Despite the constant near-hysteria of the politicians, journalists and high-priced analysts, I've been right so far. Here's why. (09-Apr-04) Terrorist suicide bombings in Iraq may backfire against terrorists: During an awakening period, terrorist acts cause masses of people to shrink from more violence. (19-Aug-03) |
But the above graph from a new report (PDF) on Iraq from Brookings gives the lie to this hedging. The graph shows the number of civilian casualties each month since 2003.
Ken Pollack made his original prediction, that Iraq was headed for a major civil war like the ones in Lebanon and Bosnia, in December 2006, at the height of the casualties. As you can see from the graph, Pollack's prediction was almost a cue to Iraq, as the number of casualties collapsed immediately after his prediction, at the time when President Bush's "surge" took hold. And now, finally, US forces are withdrawing from Iraqi cities.
It must be a bitter pill for Brookings' O'Hanlon now to have to admit that there's no civil war, as politicians, journalists and analysts on the left were predicting.
It was at this time that NBC "news" put on a huge dog-and-pony show, declaring that the Iraq war was a civil war, and that the US would lose.
Organizations like NBC News and the New York Times were swimming in the sewer, allying themselves with the terrorists in Iraq, with the purpose of defeating and humiliating the US in Iraq. Their actions were shameful beyond belief, and were close to treason.
At least the Brookings Institution has been able to bite the bullet and make at least a half-hearted admission that they were wrong. But not NBC News or the New York Times, who are still suffering from what one pundit has called "Bush Derangement Syndrome," where their hatred of President Bush is so great and so vitriolic that they almost can't think of anything else.
The people at the New York Times are certainly still suffering from Bush Derangement Syndrome, if we're to judge from an article on the US withdrawal, containing the following bizarre paragraph:
The first bizarre thing is the reference to "Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia." This phrase was uniquely adopted by the NYT to avoid admitting that al-Qaeda was in Iraq. The organization was actually called "Al-Qaeda in Iraq," and it was not homegrown at all. It was led by Jordanian terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, who imported suicide bombers from Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries. I wrote about all this in my April 2007 analysis, "Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq," which was a much better analysis that anything that came out of NBC News, the New York Times, or the Brookings Insitution.
It was in August, 2003, that I nervously wrote my first major prediction about Iraq in, "Terrorist suicide bombings in Iraq may backfire against terrorists." The predictions that I posted in that article, and repeated many times since then about Iraq and many other countries, have all turned out to be true, or are trending true. Not a single Generational Dynamics prediction has turned out to be wrong.
Once again, as has happened many times since I set up this web site almost seven years ago, Generational Dynamics has been proven to be correct, while the analysts have been proven wrong. (See "List of major Generational Dynamics predictions," and "Generational Dynamics forecasting methodology.") This is not because I have any psychic capability or political skills (I have none of either), but because the Generational Dynamics methodology works consistently.
One thing that hasn't changed is that, Generational Dynamics is still
the only methodology which has produced correct predictions and,
after almost seven years, this is still the only web site in the world
that tells you what's going on in the world, and what's going to
happen. In fact, there is no other web site in the world like this
one.
(1-Jul-2009)
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