Typhoon Morakot triggers a Dalai Lama visit to Taiwan - 28-Aug-2009 - Generational Dynamics

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 28-Aug-2009

Typhoon Morakot triggers a Dalai Lama visit to Taiwan

Beijing "resolutely opposes" the proposed visit of the Dalai Lama to Taiwan "in whatever form and capacity," according to an official statement from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). It adds:

"The Dalai Lama is not a pure religious figure. Under the pretext of religion, he has all along been engaged in separatist activities.

When people from all sectors on the mainland are lending a hand to help Taiwan reconstruct and overcome the typhoon disaster quickly, some DPP members have taken the chance to plot the Dalai Lama's visit to Taiwan.

Obviously this is not for the sake of disaster relief. It's an attempt to sabotage the hard-earned good situation in cross-Strait relations."

The bitter CCP statement is in response to a planned 5-day visit by the Dalai Lama to Taiwan next week.

The visit was triggered by the unbelievably slow response of Taiwan's current government to the devastating Morakot typhoon (hurricane) that struck Taiwan a couple of weeks ago.

Take a look at the following extremely dramatic video:

You won't see anything like that too often.

But the KMT government of president Ma Ying-jeou responded very slowly and insensitively to the disaster.

Ma's stiff, delayed response is in contrast to the tirelessly comforting actions of China's Premier Wen Jiabao during last year's devastating earthquake in Sichuan province.

Ma's approval rating had been falling precipitously in recent months, but his response to Morakot has been politically disastrous.

In order to understand what's going on, it will be helpful to briefly summarize the history that got us here:

Ma Ying-jeou is president of the KMT (Kuomintang) party. This party was formed by Mao Zedong's mortal enemy, Chiang Kai-shek in the 1920s. After China's bloody civil war (1934-49), Chiang's troops fled to Formosa (Taiwan).

The KMT party governed Taiwan into the 1990s. It was always the policy of the CCP and the KMT that Taiwan was part of China, and that they would be reunited. (This is the so-called "One China policy.")

After the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, the Wild Lily rebellion began in Taiwan. This was a student-led separatist movement whose objective was that Taiwan would be a separate country, and would not reunite with China. The rebellion grew and took the form of a new political party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), that won elections in 2000 and 2004, much to Beijing's disgust.

The Chinese HATE the DPP, even more than Nancy Pelosi hates Sarah Palin. The CCP has frequently spewed bitter invectives at DPP members.

Thus, the Chinese were relieved when the KMT came back into power in 2008. However, Ma's approval ratings have been falling, and typhoon Morakot has been a political disaster.

When members of the DPP invited the Dalai Lama to visit Taiwan to give comfort to the typhoon victims, the Ma was forced to allow the visit, or risk even further loss of his approval ratings.

The Dalai Lama is, of course, the spiritual leader of the Tibetans. Tibet is part of China, but many Tibetans seek an independent nation of Tibet.

This visit is a nightmare to Beijing, because it brings together two separatist movements -- the Tibetan separatist movement and the Taiwan separatist movement. This is very threatening to the CCP.

But some of the current CCP invectives are posturing. They know that Ma had no choice, but they're making their displeasure known anyway.

Things to watch for are the following:

Will Ma meet with the Dalai Lama?

Will the Dalai Lama make inflammatory statements in his speeches and news conferences, or will he stick to a conciliatory script?

How will Ma's approval rating be affected?

Will this lead to a new round of Beijing paranoia?

It's possible that this visit by the Dalai Lama will end up changing nothing, and it's possible that it will spiral into a major international incident.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the China thread of the Generational Dynamics forum.) (28-Aug-2009) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 28-Aug-2009 Typhoon Morakot triggers a Dalai Lama visit to Taiwan

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 28-Aug-2009
Typhoon Morakot triggers a Dalai Lama visit to Taiwan