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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 30-Aug-2009
U.N. commander claims that the Darfur war is over

Web Log - August, 2009

U.N. commander claims that the Darfur war is over

The war has turned into "very low intensity" clashes and banditry, according to General Martin Luther Agwai, the outgoing commander of the combined United Nations / African Union peacekeeping force (UNAMID). He made the following very Zen statement:

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"You see, the causes of the conflict in Darfur have changed completely. If war is a conflict whereby today you attack and then go back home and stay until three, four, five months and come back... If that is a definition of war then there is a war in Darfur.

But if that is not the definition then there is no war as of now in Darfur."

I wonder if Agwai can also describe to us the sound of one hand clapping.

It's interesting to note that UNAMID itself apparently doesn't agree with Agwai's assessment. If you read the farewell UNAMID press release on Agwai's departure, it makes no reference to the end of the war. It contains only two quotes from Agwai: "We have made significant progress on the ground and the end of deployment is at last in sight" and "I believe we have made remarkable progress, but still need to do more."

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this cannot be the end of the war, because there's hasn't been a climax. This is a generational crisis war, and crisis wars end with a bang, not a whimper. A non-crisis war can end with a whimper, but not a crisis war. (See "Basics of Generational Dynamics.")

I'v discussed the concept of the "explosive crisis" several times with respect to the recently ended crisis civil war in Sri Lanka. (See, for example, "Tamil Tigers surrender, ending the Sri Lanka crisis civil war.") The explosive crisis is always some sort of massacre or genocide, something so horrible that both the victors and losers vow that nothing like it can ever be permitted to happen again.

That hasn't happened in Darfur. There are three million refugees living in huge tent farms in the middle of the desert, with food, water and other needs supplied by international care agencies. There are still many rapes and murders and small massacres (these are the "very low intensity" clashes and banditry that Agwai referred to), but full-scale war with Janjaweed militias and other pro-government militias is being held off only because of a small cadre of African Union and United Nations forces.

How are these three million refugees going to return to their homes? Many of their villages have been taken over by the pro-government militias, and most of the others have been burnt to the ground. Whatever visceral emotions launched the full-scale genocide in the first place still exist, and will exist until the cathartic explosive climax occurs.

There have been numerous news stories this week on Agwai's statement, and they all say that the Darfur war began in 2003. This is totally absurd.

The war began in the 1970s as a classic war between farmers and camel herders. These conflicts have occurred in every country throughout history. The farmers plant crops. The herds of animals trample the crops. The farmers put up fences. The herders break through the fences. Tempers flare.

In Darfur, the herders and farmers are different ethnic groups, with the herders allied with the government in Khartoum. The conflicts were settled locally in the 1970s, but they escalated throughout the 1980s and 1990s. Finally in 2002 and 2003 there were several "regeneracy events," turning the low-level war into a crisis war. (For a detailed history of the Darfur war, see "Ban Ki Moon blames Darfur genocide on global warming.")

By 2004, the genocidal events were apparent, and the international community began committing resources to stop the fight. But as I wrote in 2004 in "Darfur genocide: The UN is completely irrelevant," crisis wars are not political wars, and cannot be prevented, started or stopped by politicians. Generational crisis wars come from the masses of people, driven by an entire constellation of generations. They start off slowly, and gather momentum until an explosive climax is reached. Then the people on all sides say to one another, "Omigod, what have we done?" and they vow that it will never happen again. It happens again when the survivors of the crisis war retire and die.

Darfur has not yet reached that explosive climax. The climax has been postponed by huge international commitments of resources to separate the two sides, and to support 3 million refugees in camps. One way or another, those refugee camps are going to disappear and the international aid groups will disappear. Then the militias will have the chance they've been waiting for, and the REAL explosive climax will occur.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Darfur / Sudan crisis war thread of the Generational Dynamics forum.) (30-Aug-2009) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 30-Aug-2009 U.N. commander claims that the Darfur war is over

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 30-Aug-2009
U.N. commander claims that the Darfur war is over