Big Iran street protests greet Ahmadinejad's fiery denunciations of Israel - 19-Sep-2009 - Generational Dynamics

Iran's political crisis continues to grow, as the college year begins.

by John J. Xenakis

Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad promised his audience, "This regime (Israel) will not last long. Do not tie your fate to it ... This regime has no future. Its life has come to an end."

The occasion of the Friday speech by Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was al-Quds Day, where al-Quds is the Arabic name for Jerusalem. Ahmadinejad was speaking in support of the Palestinians, and condemning Israel. Here are some excerpts from his speech:

"The plans for the formation of the [Zionist] regime had been drawn up before the World War I to rule all material and intellectual sources of the world. ...

We do believe that if war is waged in Iraq and Afghanistan, it is because of Zionists' provocation. If Sudan is suppressed it is because of Zionists' temptations. Zionists are behind all the conspiracies of the arrogance and colonialism. They do not allow the main factor of excuses for Palestine occupation be examined and surveyed. ...

The pretext for establishing the Zionist regime is a lie - a lie which relies on an unreliable claim, a mythical claim, and the occupation of Palestine has nothing to do with the Holocaust."

These are some of the most inflammatory statements that Ahmadinejad has made in a while.

As I've written in my analysis of Iran's strategy, Iran would like to gain hegemony over the entire Mideast. To this end, they've provided money to the Palestinians, armed Hizbollah to fight Israel, supplied Shia terrorists in Iraq with materials for roadside bombs, and supplied Sunni terrorists in Afghanistan with materials for roadside bombs. In recent months, Iran has been providing support to the Shia Houthi rebels in Yemen's civil war.

Ahmadinejad is trying to mimic the success of Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution, in which the leaders united the country by referring to the United States as "The Great Satan." From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, that kind of strategy works in a generational Crisis era, such as Iran was in during the 1979 revolution and the 1980-88 Iran/Iraq war. But it can't work today, because Iran is now in a generational Awakening era. (See "Basics of Generational Dynamics.")

Thus, a speech at the same event given by hard-line cleric, Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, returns to the theme of Jerusalem and the Palestinians:

This statement is part of an incredible fantasy held by Ahmadinejad and other hard-liners in Iran's government: That Iran can create an Islamic empire encompassing the entire Mideast. Thus, the Iranians are aiding the Hamas Palestinian terrorists and the Lebanese Hizbollah terrorists to fight Israel. As unbelievable as this may seem, they actually believe that by doing things like that, they're going to be able to create an Islamic empire, centered in Tehran, that will control the entire Mideast.

This is tied into the fanatical religious belief, held by Ahmadinejad and other hardline Iranian leaders, of the coming of the Mahdi that I discussed in "Iran and Ahmadinejad are waiting for the Mahdi," something that's roughly equivalent to waiting for the second coming of Christ in the Christian religion.

They actually believe that the Arab/Sunni Muslim populations on the Arabian peninsula will allow themselves to be governed by the Persian/Shia Muslim government in Tehran. Such a belief is fanaticism to the point of insanity.

Iranian officials had feared al-Quds day demonstrations, and had forbidden them with threats of arrest. However, that didn't stop tens of thousands from protesting, according to The Times:

"In Tehran and other cities, tens of thousands of demonstrators hijacked Iran�s annual al-Quds Day rallies in support of the Palestinian cause and turned them into protests against the oppression of Iranians. The security forces hit back with teargas and baton charges. There were violent confrontations between government and opposition supporters in the squares and avenues of central Tehran and numerous reports of arrests and injuries. ...

Car drivers stuck in the gridlock sounded their horns and turned on their headlights to show support. Protests were also reported in Isfahan, Shiraz, Tabriz, Qum, Rasht and other cities. Within hours the internet was flooded with video clips showing jubilant crowds applauding, singing and holding their arms aloft to form a sea of V-for-victory signs. Witnesses said that they chanted �Rape and torture will not stop us� and �Liar, liar, where is your 63 per cent?� � a reference to Mr Ahmadinejad�s alleged share of June�s vote.

They chanted: �I will fight, I will die, but I will take back my country�, and �Supreme Leader! This is the last message � the Green Movement of Iran is prepared for the uprising�. Mocking the regime�s concern for the Palestinians, they chanted: �Neither Gaza nor Lebanon � I sacrifice my life for Iran.� Some held placards saying: �If I rise, if you rise, everyone will rise.�

One elderly woman said: �They have raped, murdered and tortured our youth after stealing the election. May God�s wrath come down on them.�

A 69-year-old merchant said: �I came to show solidarity with the youth of my country. The regime is destroying Islam and Iran.�

A young female student said: �The cheating, the raping, the killing and the torture drive you mad. I�ve come to express my hatred for Ahmadinejad and his protector, that so-called Great Leader of the Revolution.�

Of particular note was the chant, "Neither Gaza nor Lebanon � I sacrifice my life for Iran." This was a direct repudiation of Ahmadinejad's policy of supporting Hamas and Hizbollah.

Analysts at organizations like Stratfor and the BBC had predicted, earlier this summer, that the protests would be crushed. At one point, the BBC reported all day that the protests were already dead. On the very next day, there were tens of thousands of protestors.

Analysts, journalists and politicians all got it wrong because they were using the wrong historical analogy -- the massive 1989 Tiananmen Square protests in China, that died out after they were crushed by China's People's Liberation Army firing on and killing hundreds or thousands of protestors.

However, as I said from the beginning, a Generational Dynamics analysis indicates that the best historical analogy is America's protests beginning with the 1967 Summer of Love. Those protests continued for almost a decade, and resulted in the failed presidencies of Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon, as well as an American defeat in Vietnam.

It's way too early to say that "the Islamic Revolution is toast," but it's not to early to say that Iran's government faces many years of political crisis, as the generation of hardline survivors of the 1979 revolution all retire and die, and younger post-war generations grow in size. These younger generations are generally pro-American and pro-West, and they are not interested in wiping Israel off the map. When colleges open in the fall, large campus demonstrations are likely.

And it's still my expectation, as I've stated several times in the past, that when the Clash of Civilizations world war arrives, Iran will be the ally, not the enemy, of America, Israel and the West.

	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 19-Sep-2009
Big Iran street protests greet Ahmadinejad's fiery denunciations of Israel

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 19-Sep-2009 Big Iran street protests greet Ahmadinejad's fiery denunciations of Israel

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 19-Sep-2009
Big Iran street protests greet Ahmadinejad's fiery denunciations of Israel