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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 20-Oct-2009
After a week of terrorist carnage across Pakistan, the army declares war on militants

Web Log - October, 2009

After a week of terrorist carnage across Pakistan, the army declares war on militants

Al-Qaeda, the Taliban, and Punjabi terrorists appear to be linking up.

Official map of Pakistan, with the addition of the FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas), highlighting Swat Valley <font face=Arial size=-2>(Source: pakistan.gov.pk)</font>

Official map of Pakistan, with the addition of the FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas), highlighting Swat Valley (Source: pakistan.gov.pk)

For two weeks there have been almost daily suicide bombing attacks in cities across Pakistan, including Peshawar in the northwest, Rawalpindi, which is adjacent to Islamabad, the nation's capital, and Lahore, in the east. The widespread attacks appear to be coordinated, and appear to be targeting Pakistan's security forces. Over 150 people have been killed.

According to Taliban leaders, these have been revenge attacks for last spring's army operations in Swat valley, which the army claims were successful in driving in the Taliban from the region, and for the planned new army operations now beginning in South Waziristan in the FATA.

The widespread nature of the recent terrorist attacks, and the fact that they appear to be coordinated, indicate that terrorist Islamists from different ethnic groups, all Sunni Muslim, are coordinating their activities:

The ethnic Pashtuns occupy the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP), throughout the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), and into the heartland of Afghanistan. That Taliban are Pashtuns who have adopted terrorist Islamist views and behaviors.

Members of al-Qaeda are ethnically Arabs. Al-Qaeda provides the ideological leadership that's followed by the Taliban and other Islamist terrorist. The Taliban and al-Qaeda has been linked since the 1980s, when the Pashtuns were fighting the Soviets in Afghanistan, and the Pashtuns were receiving military assistance for that war.

Another large group is Uzbek militants from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. This Sunni terrorist group also fought against the Soviets in Afghanistan in the 1980s.

The new development is that ethnic Punjabi terrorists are apparently now coordinating with al-Qaeda and the Taliban. This is an important development, since the Punjabis are the largest population group in Pakistan, and are considered the "élite." Furthermore, ordinary Punjabis have been opposing army actions in FATA and Swat Valley, since they blame the Americans for terrorist acts in Pakistan.

A new and as yet unconfirmed development is that terrorists from the Baluchi (or Balochi) ethnic group may also be linking with the Taliban and al-Qaeda. Among the Baluchis, the name "Jundullah" ("Soldiers of God") is adopted by Baluchi Islamist terrorists, just as "Taliban" is Pashtun terrorists and "al-Qaeda" is Arab terrorists, all Sunni Muslim. Although Jundullah connections to al-Qaeda have been doubted till now, there's a suspicion that this may be changing.
This suspicion became apparent on Sunday when Jundullah conducted an al-Qaeda-like suicide bombing in southeastern Iran, in the Sistan-Baluchistan province. This was an extremely significant attack in Iran, because it targeted Iran's hallowed Revolutionary Guard, killing 11, in addition to more than 20 civilians. The Revolution

All of these groups have a great deal in common. They're all Sunni Muslim extremists. They're all funded by the drug trade in Afghanistan. They're all anti-American, anti-Western, and anti-Shia.

And with al-Qaeda in the ideological lead, their primary objective is to take control of some country. They're ideal model is the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran which, ironically, is a Shia state. They tried to create a similar revolution in Iraq, and failed, and now they're trying in Somalia and Pakistan, with potential future targets in Saudi Arabia and Palestine.

On the other side are Shia groups -- the Persians in Iran, the Sindhis in Pakistan -- and their historic allies, the Hindus in India.

More and more, we can see the growing trend leading towards the major war between Sunni and Shia Muslims that will encompass the entire region. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this war is coming with absolute certainty.

The war in South Waziristan

Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) form a safe haven for Taliban and al-Qaeda terrorists striking Afghanistan. <font face=Arial size=-2>(Source: cfr.org)</font>

Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) form a safe haven for Taliban and al-Qaeda terrorists striking Afghanistan. (Source: cfr.org)

On Saturday, Pakistan launched a massive air and ground attack on Taliban strongholds in South Waziristan, hoping to score a victory within a few weeks.

Communication with South Waziristan is difficult in the best of times, but now there's none at all. However, hundreds of thousands of refugees are pouring out of the region to escape the fighting, and the fighting is believed to be particularly bloody, often at the level of hand to hand street fighting.

Here's an al-Jazeera video on the fighting:

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this war is the next step in the path to a totally genocidal crisis war. As I explained several months ago in "Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Gaza are all following the same path," these wars, occurring in a generational Crisis era, become increasingly bloody as time goes on. Thus, previous army battles in the FATA region ended in stalemate, while last spring's army battle in the Swat Valley was more violent, and the current war will be move violent still.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, as well as more frequent updates on this subject, see the Afghanistan, Pakistan and India thread of the Generational Dynamics forum.) (20-Oct-2009) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 20-Oct-2009 After a week of terrorist carnage across Pakistan, the army declares war on militants

The war in South Waziristan

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 20-Oct-2009
After a week of terrorist carnage across Pakistan, the army declares war on militants