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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 26-Oct-2009
Iran plays a grand game in international nuclear weapons talks

Web Log - October, 2009

Iran plays a grand game in international nuclear weapons talks

Will she or won't she?

Whenever politicians say something, I like to apply a simple test: What would the politicians be saying if the thing they're denying is true? Usually, they'd be saying exactly the same thing. This doesn't prove that what they're denying is true, but it does prove that you can't believe anything that the politicians say.

Applying this test to the hardline Iranian politicians, we ask ourselves, what would the politicians say under these assumptions:

They have every intention of developing nuclear weapons.
They don't want to be bombed by Israel or the U.S.
They don't want any further U.N. or European sanctions.

Under those assumptions, the Iranians would say that they have no desire for nuclear weapons, and that they want to fully cooperate with the international community. And they would would stall and raise a lot of extraneous issues.

And of course, that's exactly what they've been doing. That doesn't prove that they're developing nuclear weapons, but it does prove that you can't believe anything they say.

The current drama began in mid-September when President Obama and the leaders of France and Britain disclosed that Iran had been constructing a secret nuclear processing plant in Fordo, a village about 115 miles south of Tehran. The disclosure was extremely embarrassing to Iran, and appeared to have infuriated two of Iran's main supporters, Russia and China, who felt betrayed by Iran's lying.

This was followed a few days later by a test-firing of new missiles capable of striking Israel.

Taken together, the two incidents raised many international alarm bells. American and Europe began considering new sanctions, and Russia and China indicated that they might not veto the sanctions in the U.N. Security Council. Some people feared that an air strike by Israel could be coming soon.

So Iran's politicians moved quickly into obfuscation mode.

On October 4, an ebullient Mohamed ElBaradei, head of the U.N.'s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced that Iran was moving away from confrontation with the West, and was agreeing to allow inspections of the Fordo plant by October 25 -- allowing itself plenty of time to remove anything incrminating.

ElBaradei also announced that Iran would return to the negotiating table with the West. Strangely enough, Iran said nothing about these announcements. Nonetheless, ElBaradei's announcements were enough to defuse talk of sanctions, at least for a while.

The negotiations have yielded a complex plan: Iran would ship most of its existing low-grade enriched uranium to Russia and France, where it would be processed into fuel rods with enriched uranium of a purity of 20 percent. This plan would guarantee that Iran would not develop uranium-processing facilities that could also provide weapons-grade material, but would still provide them with the enriched uranium for energy and medical needs.

Once again, it was ElBaradei who announced this plan on Monday, with Iran saying nothing. Iran was asked to approve the plan by Friday, but they keep asking for more time. If the assumptions that I listed above are correct, then they will find a way not to approve this plan.

While this discussion is going on, IAEA inspectors are now arriving at the Fordu nuclear plant to begin their inspection.

Iran's politicians are well aware that it was Saddam Hussein's refusal to allow IAEA inspections that caused the Clinton administration to bomb Iraq almost on a daily basis, starting in 1998, and the Bush administration to launch the 2003 ground offensive. They believe that by allowing inspections, they'll defuse the West's desire to bomb Iran's nuclear installations or impose sanctions.

However, if we're to judge what Iran's Persian-language newspapers are saying, they have no intention whatsoever of agreeing to ElBaradei's enriched uranium plan. While ElBaradei and western media have been have been bubbling with enthusiasm over the supposed success of this plan, sometimes calling it a victory for President Obama's accommodating, non-confrontational approach to Iran, analysis by MEMRI of Iranian media produces these statements:

"One thing is clear, namely that Iran will not lose its strategic reserves."

"The West - which a week or two ago thought with enthusiasm that Iran would be willing to hand over all its strategic reserves at once, [namely all] its [uranium] enriched to a low level, in return for a handful of promises - is now gradually learning that Iran has no intention whatsoever to do so. In fact, to put it as briefly as possible, Iran's strategic choice in the Vienna talks is not to hand over its nuclear material and to receive it [back in the form of] nuclear fuel, because in principle, [Iran] cannot place the least bit of trust in the Western side to remain committed to its promises on this issue... Iran will never give up its strategic reserves."

"[Iran's] strategic options are either to purchase nuclear fuel or to enrich [uranium] to 20% inside Iran - and the West must choose between the two."

High level Iranian politician Ali Larijani said that the West was "obliged to provide Iran with enriched uranium for the research reactor in Tehran. Moreover, there is no guarantee that if a deal is struck, the West will [actually] provide Iran with the nuclear fuel [after it receives Iran's nuclear material]."

One editorial said that the plan was an American trap personally designed by President Obama. An Iranian consent to this deal, the paper continued, would eliminate Iran's achievements in the field of nuclear enrichment, and this in return for nothing more than "false promises and illusions."

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, one cannot simply stop here and conclude that Iran will reject the plan with 100% certainty. Iran is in a generational Awakening era, a time of enormous political turmoil, as could be seen with this summer's student street protests, which are still continuing.

There are conflicting pressures in Iran, as follows:

The Iranian people strongly support the development of nuclear technology, but it's not clear that they support the development of nuclear weapons. The protestors are angry at the government for allowing this to turn into an international conflict, and this may force a compromise.

On the other side, the hand of the hardliners who want to develop nuclear weapons has been greatly strengthened this week by the humiliating terrorist attack on the Revolutionary Guards by the al-Qaeda linked Jundullah terrorist group, whose base is in Pakistan. (See "Furious Iran blames Pakistan, US and Britain for Sunday's terrorist attacks.") The Iranians are well aware that Pakistan has an arsenal of nuclear weapons, and they foresee the possibility of a future war between the two countries.

The political turmoil gives rise to the possibility that Iran may agree to ElBaradei's plan. But on balance, I estimate the chances to be vanishingly small. We can thus expect Iran to continue playing its grand game, and continue to tie the Western community into political knots.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Iran thread of the Generational Dynamics forum.) (26-Oct-2009) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 26-Oct-2009 Iran plays a grand game in international nuclear weapons talks

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 26-Oct-2009
Iran plays a grand game in international nuclear weapons talks