Yemen wars escalate rapidly, as US provides military support - 27-Dec-2009 - Generational Dynamics

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 27-Dec-2009

Yemen wars escalate rapidly, as US provides military support

The Yemen connection to the attempted airplane bombing has thrust Yemen into the news.

The 23-year-old would-be bomber is from a prominent Nigerian family, but apparently received terrorist training and the bomb ingredients from Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), headquartered in Yemen. This has caused various news anchors, bloggers and politicians to have to learn how to spell "Yemen" and to realize the growing al-Qaeda presence there.

Yemen. Shia Houthi rebels are fighting the Saudi army in northern Yemen, while al-Qaeda is gaining control in southern Yemen. <font size=-2>(Source: CIA Fact Book / Economist)</font>

Yemen. Shia Houthi rebels are fighting the Saudi army in northern Yemen, while al-Qaeda is gaining control in southern Yemen. (Source: CIA Fact Book / Economist)

However, there's far more important news coming from Yemen, and it's about two wars that have been escalating rapidly since I first wrote about them in September. (See "Escalating civil war in Yemen threatens to pull in Iran, Saudi Arabia and U.S.")

In northern Yemen, the war was originally a rebellion by the Houthi ethnic group against the Yemen government. Since September, it's spilled over into a border war between Houthis and Saudi Arabia. Analysts were shocked this week when Saudi Arabia disclosed that it has lost 73 of its soldiers in its clashes with Yemen’s Houthi rebels.

Saudi Arabia's air force has been crossing the border into Yemen, with the Yemenis' consent, and striking at Houthi rebel bases. A Saudi air strike last Sunday on a north Yemen town reportedly killed dozens of people, including civilians. The US is thought to be providing intelligence information for the strikes.

In southern Yemen, the war is against al-Qaeda terrorists. Yemen's government in Sana'a is increasingly losing control of the country, and al-Qaeda groups are using Yemen as headquarters for AQAP, with a stronghold in the south. AQAP has been staging terrorist attacks throughout the country in order to destabilize the government.

Yemen has been conducting air strikes against al-Qaeda bases. The NY Times reports that the "United States provided firepower, intelligence and other support to the government of Yemen." The "other support" is thought to include American special forces soldiers and attacks by American cruise missiles.

According to a statement by General David Petraeus statement in April:

"Yemen stands out from its neighbors on the Arab Peninsula. The inability of the Yemeni government to secure and exercise control over all of its territory offers terrorist and insurgent groups in the region, particularly Al Qaeda, a safe haven in which to plan, organize, and support terrorist operations. It is important that this problem be addressed, and CENTCOM is working to do that. Were extremist cells in Yemen to grow, Yemen’s strategic location would facilitate terrorist freedom of movement in the region and allow terrorist organizations to threaten Yemen’s neighbors, especially Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf States. In view of this, we are expanding our security cooperation efforts with Yemen to help build the nation’s security, counter-insurgency, and counter-terror capabilities."

As I've described many times, al-Qaeda's aim is to duplicate the success of Iran's 1979 (Shia) Islamic Revolution in a Sunni Muslim country. They've attempted this in Iraq, Somalia, Algeria, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan and elsewhere, and now Yemen. So far they've been unsuccessful, but they'll keep trying in different countries until they're successful.

The growing American military presence in Yemen means that there is one more country, in addition to Iraq, Afghanistan, and Somalia, where American forces and al-Qaeda-linked Islamist forces are fighting one another. The potential for a major escalation is substantial.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the world is headed for a "clash of civilizations" world war, pitting China and Sunni Islam forces against the West.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Yemen thread of the Generational Dynamics forum.) (27-Dec-2009) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 27-Dec-2009 Yemen wars escalate rapidly, as US provides military support

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 27-Dec-2009
Yemen wars escalate rapidly, as US provides military support