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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 28-Dec-2009
In Iran's largest and most violent protests yet, nephew of opposition leader is killed

Web Log - December, 2009

In Iran's largest and most violent protests yet, nephew of opposition leader is killed

Iranian police fired on protesters on Sunday, killing ten people, including the 35-year-old nephew of the opposition leader Mir-Hussein Moussavi. Moussavi was the principal opponent of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the June 12 presidential elections that many analysts have claimed were conducted fraudulently. Moussavi claims to have won the election.

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The hardline government's threats of violence against protesters may have reduced the volume of protests during the last few months but, as would be expected during a generational Awakening era, the protests have come back stronger than ever during the last week. Hundreds of thousands of protesters took over the streets of Tehran on Sunday, and similar protests occurred in cities across the country.

However, two events have occurred recently that have given the protesters an "excuse" to come out in force and demonstrate:

Grand Ayatollah Hoseyn Ali Montazeri died two weeks ago. Montazeri was one of the heroes of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, but he has been a leading critic of the hardline policies of the current regime. I quote Montazeri in an earlier article (see "Theological split in Iran widens as opposition protests continue") last month. His funeral ceremonly last Sunday provided an opportunity for protesters to come out.

This Sunday was the Ashura holiday, the holiest day in the Shia Islam calendar, commemorating the death in 680 of Imam Hussein at the Battle of Karbala. This was the climax of the first crisis war between followers of Mohammed after his death. This war created the division between the Sunni and Shia branches of the Islam faith. The Ashura holiday, commemorating the death of Imam Hussein, is roughly equivalent in importance to the Easter holiday in Christianity, commemorating the death and resurrection of Christ. The Ashura holiday provided the opportunity for the nationwide anti-government protests.

Iran's government is panicking over these demonstrations because they seem very similar to the the demonstrations that led to the massive violence Islamic Revolution in 1979. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, a repeat of the 1979 revolution is completely impossible at this time. In 1979, Iran was in a generational Crisis era, so a crisis civil war was quite plausible. Today, Iran is in a generational Awakening era, and a crisis civil war is literally impossible. (See "A generational explanation of Iran's political crisis.")

I heard one commentator on television say something like, "I don't know where these protests are going. They seem to have no leader and no objective." That's exactly right. The riots and demonstrations are just like those by the Boomer generation in America in the 1960s, and the '68er demonstrations in Europe at the same time. That was the time of the West's generational Awakening era. When tens of thousands of young people went to San Francisco to take part in the 1967 Summer of Love, they had no leader and no objective either. They were mainly demonstrating against their own parents, and the austere rules imposed by the generations that survived World War II. Today's demonstrators in Iran are really demonstrating against the austere rules imposed by the generations that survived the Islamic revolution and the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s.

The death of Moussavi's nephew is certain to be considered a major event by the young demonstrations, infuriating them and causing enormous outrage. The hardline government is hoping that the demonstrations will fizzle, and they're using violence to try to stop them, but without success.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Iran's riots and demonstrations can be expected to continue for years, and will only end when some sort of climactic event occurs, equivalent to America's resignation of President Richard Nixon in 1974.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Iran thread of the Generational Dynamics forum.) (28-Dec-2009) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 28-Dec-2009 In Iran's largest and most violent protests yet, nephew of opposition leader is killed

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 28-Dec-2009
In Iran's largest and most violent protests yet, nephew of opposition leader is killed