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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 11-Jan-2010
"The Diplomat" Magazine: Top events and flashpoints for Asia-Pacific region

Web Log - January, 2010

"The Diplomat" Magazine: Top events and flashpoints for Asia-Pacific region

Understanding where the world is going in the 2010s.

As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that we're headed for a new "Clash of Civilizations" world war, pitting China and Sunni Islam forces against the West. As usual, Generational Dynamics tells you the final destination, but doesn't tell you the scenario that will get you there. (See "Generational Dynamics forecasting methodology.")

The new issue of The Diplomat Magazine presents an "end of decade" series of articles on the major events of the last decade and the major flash points of the next decade. The magazine doesn't mention anything about a world war, of course, but it does provide an overview of the major trends and major points of conflict, at least for the Asia-Pacific region.

Flashpoints in Asia-Pacific region

The Diplomat Magazine now describes the major flashpoints, any of which could trigger a major war in the Asia-Pacific region.

Taiwan. As the article points out, relations between China and Taiwan have been improving lately, largely because the pro-China Nationalist Party (KMT) came to power in 2008. However, the political winds could change quickly, and there are still many Taiwanese who want complete independence from China.
There are 1500 missiles on China's soil pointing directly at Taiwan, and that number continues to increase. Few people doubt that China intends, sooner or later, to forcibly make Taiwan part of China again. Any political move in Taiwan that even smells of "independence" might trigger such a move by the paranoid Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leaders, and the US would immediately counterattack, leading to war.

The Spratly Islands.

The Spratly Islands (Source: The Diplomat)

The Beijing government claims sovereignty over all islands in the South China sea, including the Spratly Islands, but those claims are disputed by Brunei, the Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Vietnam. (See "China continues massive military expansion as it announces 18% budget increases.")
This is part of a much larger naval strategy -- a plan to gain hegemony over the entire Pacific and Indian ocean regions. China is developing a "String of Pearls" -- a collection of ports that link China with the Mideast and Africa.

North Korea. In 2009, the North Koreans launched a multi-stage satellite launch vehicle and detonated a second nuclear device. The level of hatred between the North Koreans and the Japanese is enormous, and the amount of tension between North and South Korea is also enormous.

Kashmir. Kashmir has been a continuing source of military conflict between Pakistan and India since the two countries were formed in 1947 by Partition.

China-India-Burma . This is the magazine's placeholder for China's increasing military and economic investment throughout central Asia. The countries in China's "String of Pearls" include Myanmar (Burma), Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Mauritius, Seychelles and Pakistan.
Completion of this "String of Pearls" strategy will bring China into direct confrontation with both India and the US.

Arunachal Pradesh. Arunachal Pradesh is a region in northeast India on the border with Tibet in China. The Chinese claim that the region is historically part of China, and they even took military action in 1959 to reclaim it, though they retreated in 1961. Just as China plans, sooner or later, to forcibly make Taiwan part of China, it's quite likely that the China has similar plans for Arunachal Pradesh, creating a new trigger point for war between China and India.

This list of flashpoints will be very useful for sorting out which news events are significant and which are not. One of these flashpoints could well be the trigger that leads to war.

Outside of the Asia-Pacific region, other flashpoints include the Mideast and the Caucasus regions, as can be seen on the conflict risk graphic on the home page of this web site.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 11-Jan-10 News - US threatens Israeli / Top Asian Events and Flashpoints thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (11-Jan-2010) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 11-Jan-2010
"The Diplomat" Magazine: Top events and flashpoints for Asia-Pacific region