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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 12-Jan-2010
12-Jan-10 News - Afghan people hope for the best

Web Log - January, 2010

12-Jan-10 News - Afghan people hope for the best

While American 'Preppers' prepare for the worst.

'Preppers' prepare for the worst

In the past, I've frequently said on this web site that you can't prevent what's coming, but you can prepare for it. You should treasure the time that you have left, and you should use the time to prepare yourself, your family, your community and your nation.

Web site reader Joel has referred me to a Newsweek article about a growing group of people, called "preppers," who are doing exactly that.

These people hope for the best, but want to be prepared for the next hurricane Katrina, the next pandemic, the next financial meltdown, the next terrorist attack or, presumably, the next war.

Referring to one of the preppers, the article concludes, "But she believes that in times of uncertainty, what she's doing is simply common sense. As for the rest of us, isn't it a little bit crazy not to prepare?"

That's damn good advice.

Poll shows Afghanistan people are more optimistic about future

Afghanistan poll <font size=-2>(Source: BBC)</font>

Afghanistan poll (Source: BBC)

The BBC reports that a major poll conducted in December finds the Afghanistan people much more optimistic about the future than in previous years. (PDF here for full poll results.)

Compared to a year ago, many more Afghans believe that the country is going in the right direction, and more of them back the presence of US troops. 71% were optimistic about the future, compared to 51% a year ago.

This is good news for the armed forces "surge" fighting in Afghanistan, and it raises hopes that the war can be won. However, as I wrote last year, comparing the Afghanistan and Iraq wars, the Iraq "surge" strategy will not work in Afghanistan.

Afghanistan's last generational crisis war as the hugely genocidal civil war that ended in 1996, almost 15 years ago. Thus, Afghanistan is in a generational Recovery era, still recovering from that ghastly war.

Thus, the optimistic results of the Afghan poll make a lot of sense. The people are on a "high," looking forward to a bright future in a country that already settled its differences.

In fact, if it were up to the Afghan people, the war would be over. Even if it were up to the Pashtuns, who make up the Taliban terrorists, the war would be over.

But there are two reasons why the war can't be won.

The first reason is that there is no war. The war was won in 2002, when the American coalition forces, in conjunction with the Afghan Northern Alliance, decisively defeated the Taliban armies. Since then, the war has collapsed into a series of terrorist attacks and a counterinsurgency strategy.

The second reason that the war can't be won is that it's not up to the Afghan people. The terrorist insurgency is being fought by Pashtun, al-Qaeda and Uzbek terrorists hiding out in the tribal areas on Pakistan's borders. The war can't be won in Afghanistan any more than it can be won in Pakistan.

As if the prove the point, the London Independent reports that Taliban terrorists have developed a new generation of roadside bombs that are made out of wood, and have no metal or electronic parts, so they can't be detected by existing methods.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 12-Jan-10 News - Afghan people hope for the best thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (12-Jan-2010) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 12-Jan-2010 12-Jan-10 News - Afghan people hope for the best

'Preppers' prepare for the worst

Poll shows Afghanistan people are more optimistic about future

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 12-Jan-2010
12-Jan-10 News - Afghan people hope for the best