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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 20-Jan-2010
20-Jan-10 News - Republican victory in Massachusetts signals political realignment.

Web Log - January, 2010

20-Jan-10 News - Republican victory in Massachusetts signals political realignment.

Hundreds die in Muslim-Christian riots in Nigeria.

Republican Scott Brown appears to have won in Massachusetts

Republican Scott Brown has won, by a substantial margin, the special election to replace the late Ted Kennedy in the Senate. That this is happening in Massachusetts, an overwhelmingly liberal Democratic state, illustrates how thoroughly the country is realigning politically.

To see what's going on, you have to understand what I've been saying for years: The great trends of any society or nation are generational, and are not determined at all by politicians. All the politicians can do is follow the generational trends.

President Bush represented the Silent and Boomer generations. The Generation-Xers, who generally speaking despise Boomers and Silents, turned to Gen-Xer Barack Obama because he was the un-Bush -- and by that I mean the un-Boomer and the un-Silent.

But now President Obama's presidency is turning out to be indistinguishable from President Bush's third term. President Obama is considered by many of his supporters to be just as much a "warmonger" as Bush was, and "change we can believe in" has been buried by loathsome corruption of the health care bill. The only difference between Bush and Obama is oratorial skill. The policies turn out to be the same.

A year ago, mainstream pundits were saying that the Republican party was close to death, and wouldn't recover for decades.

This evening, I'm hearing Republican pundits talk about this as a major political revolution, a huge victory for the Republicans that will be felt for decades. Yawn.

Other pundits are saying that Obama and the Democrats are going to move to the center. Yawn.

Actually, there is a revolution going on, but nothing that's going to make anyone happy. The Gen-Xers, who are pretty much running things now, are not going to turn back to the Republicans, nor are they going to move to the center. They're going to synthesize something new.

Who will be the new candidate who will lead the nation through this realignment? Who will be the new Abraham Lincoln or the new Franklin Roosevelt? It might be a Boomer or a Gen-Xer, but it will probably be a surprise to a lot of people.

Hundreds die in Muslim-Christian riots in Nigeria

Nigeria

Nigeria

In three days of clashes between Christians and Muslims in the city of Jos in central Nigeria, nearly 200 people have been killed, according to a report in the Times Online. The Army has been called in to restore order.

The northern part of Nigeria is mostly Muslim, because of centuries of migration from the Maghreb, the region in northern Africa that was conquered by Arab Muslims in the centuries following the death of Mohammed.

The southern part of Nigeria, especially around the Port Harcourt area, is predominantly Christian, following centuries of colonization by the Europeans, taking advantage of opportunities for mining and the slave trade.

In the middle of Nigeria is the city of Jos, heavily populated by both Muslims and Christians. There have been a number of secular confrontations in Jos over time, so the current clashes are nothing new.

However, it comes at a bad time for the Nigerian psyche. President Yar'Adua has been out of the country since November, in a hospital in Saudi Arabia receiving treatment for a heart condition.

Even worse, the perpetrator of the attempted Christmas day jetliner bombing over Detroit has been identified as a Nigerian citizen, and Nigerians have been demoralized because the US has placed Nigeria on a list of "terror-linked" countries that include Afghanistan, Cuba, Iran, Libya, Pakistan, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen.

Politicians in Nigeria are calling this violence evidence of a declining Nigerian state, according to the Nigerian newspaper The Punch.

"With the ongoing crisis, we have one more piece of evidence of decline," says one presidential candidate. "Something that repeats itself like that should by now be containable. There is a committee still working on the last riot and this one is taking place. Yet, we think the world has no right to talk about the character of the Nigerian nation, it is a shame and it is regrettable. ... In a way, the Jos crisis is an indictment. Being included on the United States‘ security risk list is a matter of perception of the character of the Nigerian state. This crisis reinforces that perception; it is acting negatively against us."

Nigeria is a country of dozens of separate tribes and ethnic groups, and I have not yet done the many hours of research necessary to completely sort out the generational timelines. But it appears that for most of the country the last generational Crisis war was the Nigerian-Biafran war of 1967-70. At that time, the southeast portion of Nigeria attemted to secede, creating a new country called the Republic of Biafra.

Based on that tentative assessment, there is no chance that the current violence will spiral into full-scale war, despite the fears of many.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 20-Jan-10 News - Republican victory in Massachusetts thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (20-Jan-2010) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 20-Jan-2010 20-Jan-10 News - Republican victory in Massachusetts signals political realignment.

Republican Scott Brown appears to have won in Massachusetts

Hundreds die in Muslim-Christian riots in Nigeria

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 20-Jan-2010
20-Jan-10 News - Republican victory in Massachusetts signals political realignment.