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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 21-Jan-2010
21-Jan-10 News - Gates: Danger of India-Pakistan war

Web Log - January, 2010

21-Jan-10 News - Gates: Danger of India-Pakistan war

Stimulus spending on lending slows in China.

Defense Sec'y Gates: Al-Qaeda 'syndicate' trying to provoke India-Pakistan war

Speaking at a press conference in India, America's Secretary of Defense Robert Gates says that there is a "syndicate of terrorist operators," operating under the al-Qaeda umbrella, attempting to destabilize the entire region.

These include the Taliban in Afghanistan, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, which is focused on Pakistan, and Lashkar-e-Taiba, which is focused on both Pakistan and India, and which is responsible for the 2008 terrorist attack in Mumbai. (See "After Mumbai's '26/11' nightmare finally ends, India - Pakistan relations face crisis.")

Their objective is to cause a collapse of the Pakistan government through terrorist acts, or to provoke an India-Pakistan conflict through provocative or terrorist acts.

"And what we see is that the success of any one of these groups leads to new capabilities and new reputation for all," according to Gates. "A victory for one is a victory for all."

Gates' remarks reflect the increasing danger presented by Sunni Muslim terrorist groups in Afghanistan, Pakistan and India.

As I've said many times, these groups have been trying for years to repeat the success of the 1979 (Shia) Islamic Revolution in Iran, to create a Sunni Islamic nation. They've tried it in Iraq, Somalia, Yemen, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, and Pakistan. They haven't succeeded yet, but they're committed to continuing, until they succeed.

India and Pakistan almost went to war in 2008, when India threatened to invade Pakistan to go after Lashkar-e-Toiba, following the Mumbai terrorist attack. This was nipped in the bud by hard intervention from Condoleezza Rice, but if a war does break out between the two nuclear powers India and Pakistan, then China will side with Pakistan and Russia and the US will side with India, spreading within a few months to world war.

China puts the brakes on business lending

Prices for oil and other commodities are likely to fall sharply if China keeps its word that it will slow lending to businesses, according to CNN Money. Oil prices could return to $40 per barrel, close to their lows in 2008.

As we've said in the past, China is experiencing a huge real estate and investment bubble, fueled by China's huge stimulus program, to the extent that even the Beijing government is concerned. (See "Skyrocketing real estate prices in China alarm officials.")

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, a cutback in China's stimulus program could do more than just cause commodity prices to call. There is still a major worldwide panic and crisis predicted, and it's possible that Chinese cutbacks could serve as the trigger causing a chain reaction.

Financial crisis continues in Greece

Greece's debt problems are causing the euro currency to fall sharply against the yen and the dollar, according to Bloomberg. The possibility of a bailout for Greece is putting pressure on other countries in euroland, and on the other hand, there is fear that if there's no bailout, and Greece defaults, then the defaults will spread to other countries.

Greece's government is proposing to put Greece on a three-year austerity program, but the program is facing facing substantial opposition, according to the WSJ's Athens Bureau Chief. Already, Greek farmers are blockading roads, and next month the civil servants union is planning a strike.

If there's any way out of this for Greece, I sure don't see it.

More on blondes getting their own way

A couple of days ago I posted an item about a University of California study that says that blondes get their own way with men, and that their sense of entitlement makes them "more warlike they are than their peers on campus."

Professor Aaron Sell, the author of the study, has written to tell me that the news reports I quoted are in error. Here's his message:

"I'm afraid you, and thousands of others for that matter, have been badly misinformed. I have never done any research that shows blondes are more aggressive, entitled, angry or "warlike" than brunette or redheads. This error was the result of a piece in the London Sunday Times.

If you'd like to see my actual research, which shows that attractive women are more prone to anger, feel more entitled, and believe they win more conflicts of interest then you can see the actual article and the press release here: http://www.psych.ucsb.edu/research/cep/topics/anger.htm

Note that the words “blonde” or even “hair” never appear there.

The writer Ryan Sager has reported accurately on the story here: http://trueslant.com/ryansager/2010/01/18/science-reporting-gone-wild/

I apologize to Professor Sell for propagating the error.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 21-Jan-10 News - Gates: Danger of India-Pakistan war thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (21-Jan-2010) Permanent Link
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