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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 7-Feb-2010
7-Feb-10 News - Iran threatens violence against Greens as Feb 11 protests approach

Web Log - February, 2010

7-Feb-10 News - Iran threatens violence against Greens as Feb 11 protests approach

International tension grows over Iran's nuclear weapons development.

US and Germany scoff at Iran's nuclear claim

For years, the West has been looking for ways to convince Iran not to develop the technology for highly enriched weapons-grade uranium. Iran says that they need to develop enriched uranium to be used for medical isotopes and for generation of electricity in a nuclear-powered plant, and that they have no intention of using it for nuclear weapons.

Under a proposal made last year by Russia, France and the West, Iran would ship its low-enriched uranium to France. France would enrich it and return it to Iran a few months later. Iran rejected this proposal last year, but on Friday, Iran’s foreign minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, said that Iran might agree to the deal.

US Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates scoffed at Iran's statement, according to the NY Times. According to Gates, Iran has done nothing to back up their words with action. "Based on the information that I have, I don’t have the sense we are close to an agreement," he said. Germany's foreign minister added that his discussions with the Iranian delegation had "not made me change my mind" about Iran’s intentions.

As I've described many times, Iran is a schizophrenic nation, with a government that virulently anti-American and anti-West, but with a young population that's pro-West, and generally with nothing against even Israel.

But one thing that Iran's government and young people agree on is Iran's nuclear development program.

During the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, Iran faced an enemy that used WMDs (weapons of mass destruction), and carried on various WMD development programs for many years. Furthermore, Iran is surrounded by countries, especially Pakistan and Israel, that have nuclear weapons. The Iranian people, young and old, feel that they need nuclear weapons to defend themselves. That's why, whatever else happens in the anti-government riots and demonstrations, Iran is going to continue its nuclear development program.

Tories would back war with Iran

As Iran's nuclear program continues, there's the possibility that some Western power will take military action. The Telegraph reports that Britain's opposition Conservative Party (the Tories) would support military action if Iran developed nuclear weapons.

According to the article, such an attack would like consist of a missile attack on nuclear and uranium enrichment sites, rather a ground invasion.

The Tories are out of power, and with an election approaching, we can be sure that this is just campaign rhetoric. Still, the statement highlights the fact that Israel or some other Western country might panic and make a military attack on Iran's nuclear sites.

Iran threatens arrests and violence on February 11

On December 27, hundreds people were arrested, and eight people were killed in violence perpetrated by Iran's security forces, after peaceful anti-government "Green movement" protests and demonstrations by young people in Iran.

Now new demonstrations are planned for Thursday, February 11, the 31st anniversary of the start of Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Iran's police are quoted as saying that they will show no tolerance whatsoever to anti-government demonstrators on Thursday, according to Reuters.

A police spokesman warned against using e-mail and text messages to spread word of protests, since police were monitoring those communications. "The new technologies allow us to identify conspirators and those who are violating the law, without having to control all people individually," he said.

Iran today is at the height of its generational Awakening era, 22 years after the end of its last crisis war, the Iran/Iraq war. The protests are similar to those in America's Awakening era in the 1960s and 1970s. (See my 2004 article, "Iraq Today vs 1960s America" for more information on Awakening eras.)

Additional Links

Russia's security forces are accusing Georgia of aiding al-Qaeda terrorists in Russia's Caucasus provinces (Chechnya, Dagestan, Ingushetia), according to a Jamestown Foundation analysis. Terrorist violence has been increasing in the Caucasus region, which historically has been the site of many wars between Muslims and Orthodox Christians, and Generational Dynamics predicts that a new war is approaching.

Most Chinese people believe that America and China are headed for a "cold war," while China's military is preparing for a military war within the ten years, according to a poll commissioned by the Times Online, and conducted by Global Times, a Chinese state-run newspaper.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 7-Feb-10 News - Iran threatens violence against Greens thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (7-Feb-2010) Permanent Link
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