	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 8-Feb-2010
8-Feb-10 News - There are more self-identified independents

Web Log - February, 2010

8-Feb-10 News - There are more self-identified independents

Will the 'Tea Party' become a real party?

Party affiliation decreases dramatically

All the talk on the Sunday morning news shows was about Sarah Palin and the Tea Party convention, and whether the Democrats or the Republicans are better off.

Party affiliation, 2004-2010. <font face=Arial size=-2>(Source: Rasmussen)</font>

Party affiliation, 2004-2010. (Source: Rasmussen)

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this kind of discussion is not the most important point. What's is important is that in this generational Crisis era, there's going to be a major political realignment of some kind.

According to a poll by Rasmussen, self-identified party affiliation has changed rapidly in the last year. Republicans have fallen slightly and Democrats have fallen sharply, while "Other" has risen sharply.

Other polls have identified a sharp increase in people saying that they belong to the "Tea Party," even though that party doesn't exist except as an informal movement. And those people have been drawn from both Republicans and Democrats.

However, the point is that the "Tea Party" is not the Republican party by any means, and it does not represent the views of Sarah Palin, despite her popularity. What the "Tea Party" represents is something new, even though it's not understood.

Approval of Congress by Party ID, Jan 2009 - Feb 2010 <font face=Arial size=-2>(Source: Gallup)</font>

Approval of Congress by Party ID, Jan 2009 - Feb 2010 (Source: Gallup)

Another sign is the dramatic fall in approval by Congress in 2009, according to Gallup.

My personal belief is that the obvious and loathsome corruption in Congress in pursuing the health care bill last year is the most important factor in driving both Democrats and Republicans to look for something new, something different from the debauched corruption that's filled Washington in the last year.

No one can predict what kind of realignment will occur, except that we can be sure that the realignment will be dramatic, and will not be pleasing to either party.

Here's a question for readers:

You'll recall that the "underwear bomber" failed to detonate his bomb in the airliner over Detroit on Christmas day. How would the political climate be different today if the bomb had detonated and the plane had crashed?

Would Scott Brown have still won in Massachusetts? Would the Republicans, Democrats and Tea Partiers be more or less popular today?

Readers are invited to post their thoughts in the "Comments" section.

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On Sunday, Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ordered his country's atomic agency to begin production of higher enriched uranium, according to the NY Times. As the February 11 anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution approaches, Ahmadinejad seems to do something every day to provoke international controversy.

Frank Sinatra's song "My Way" seems to be provoking fights and killings in the Philippines, according to the NY Times, causing speculation that there's something sinister about the song.

North Korea is becoming desperate, as the price of rice has risen many times in the last month, triggering fears of famine, according to reporting by the Asian Times. This has resulted in "an explosion of casualties" from anti-government demonstrations. As a result, South Korean officials are "tightening the screws" on North Korea, to take advantage of their desperation.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 8-Feb-10 News - There are more self-identified independents thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (8-Feb-2010) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 8-Feb-2010 8-Feb-10 News - There are more self-identified independents

Party affiliation decreases dramatically

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 8-Feb-2010
8-Feb-10 News - There are more self-identified independents