10-Feb-10 News - Iran prepares for riots, as Obama calls for harsh sanctions - 10-Feb-2010 - Generational Dynamics

On Tuesday, Iran confirmed that it has begun to manufacture high-grade uranium at its nuclear plant in Natanz. This is a highly provocative statement, because it firmly rejects compromises offered by the West last year. It also appears to confirm Iran's intention to stay on the path to developing nuclear weapons, although Iran denies that intention.

Russia is having heightened doubts about Iran's "sincerity," according to The Telegraph, which quotes Russian national security official Nikolai Patrushev as saying "Iran claims it is not trying to acquire nuclear weapons. But actions such as starting to enrich low-enriched uranium up to 20 per cent raise doubts in other countries and these doubts are fairly well-grounded."

However, Westerners still doubt that Russia will agree to sanctions, and Chinese agreement to sanctions is even less likely. Russia and China have veto power in the United Nations Security Council, so either of them could veto any proposed sanctions.

Nonetheless, in a press conference on Tuesday, Obama announced the intention to pursue new sanctions:

"I think that we have bent over backwards to say to the Islamic Republic of Iran that we are willing to have a constructive conversation about how they can align themselves with international norms and rules and reenter as full members of the international community.

The most obvious attempt was when we gave them an offer that said we are going to provide the conversion of some of the low-enriched uranium that they already have into the isotopes that they need for their medical research and for hospitals that would serve up to a million Iranian citizens. They rejected it -- although one of the difficulties in dealing with Iran over the last several months is it's not always clear who's speaking on behalf of the government, and we get a lot of different, mixed signals. But what's clear is, is that they have not said yes to an agreement that Russia, China, Germany, France, Great Britain and the United States all said was a good deal, and that the director of the IAEA said was the right thing to do and that Iran should accept.

That indicates to us that, despite their posturing that their nuclear power is only for civilian use, that they in fact continue to pursue a course that would lead to weaponization. And that is not acceptable to the international community, not just to the United States. So what we've said from the start was we're moving on dual tracks. If you want to accept the kinds of agreements with the international community that lead you down a path of being a member of good standing, then we welcome you. ...

And if not, then the next step is sanctions. They have made their choice so far, although the door is still open. And what we are going to be working on over the next several weeks is developing a significant regime of sanctions that will indicate to them how isolated they are from the international community as a whole. ...

We are going to be looking at a variety of ways in which countries indicate to Iran that their approach is unacceptable. And the U.N. will be one aspect of that broader effort. ...

[W]e are confident right now that the international community is unified around Iran's misbehavior in this area. How China operates at the Security Council as we pursue sanctions is something that we're going to have to see. One thing I'm pleased about is to see how forward-leaning the Russians have been on this issue. I think they clearly have seen that Iran hasn't been serious about solving what is a solvable dispute between Iran and the international community."

However, these are just words for now. Based on past experience, it seems unlikely that these words will turn into action.

Iran prepares for bloody street confrontations on Thursday

In a sense, the Iran's announcement about nuclear enrichment is just theatre, in preparation for the Thursday's commemoration of the beginning of the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

In order to head off street demonstrations, Iranian security officials have arrested hundreds of people, including artists, photographers, children’s rights advocates, women’s rights activists, students and scores of journalists, according to the NY Times

To prevent the opposition from organizing, authorities are slowing the internet and disrupting mobile phone service, according to VOA news.

On the opposition side, opposition supporters both inside and outside of Iran are working to bring out the largest number of young protestors possible for Thursday's demonstrations. According to the BBC, they're producing and posting Youtube videos that use scenes from action movies like X-Men and V for Vendetta as kinds of "trailer" ads to encourage protestors.

For what it's worth, I believe that President Obama has adopted the correct policy in dealing with Iran's student protests, following last year's June 12 elections. If Obama had followed the advice of those who wanted him to openly support the protestors, then he would have appeared to be intervening in Iran's affairs, and that would have played in to the hands of the hardline government.

As it is, Iran is at the height of its generational Awakening era, and the protests are going to continue and grow for years, as they did in America in the 1960s-70s.

Euro surges and stocks follow on hints of Greece bailout

Europeans are beginning to panic over a potential collapse of the euro currency, according to an analysis in Der Spiegel.

The immediate problem is the threat of a default on Greece's debt, with its annual budget deficit standing at an astronomical 12.7% of GDP (but with no ability to "print money" like the US).

But the article identifies serious structural problems with the euro currency, especially the differences among the various eurozone countries in terms of competitiveness. Thus, Germany, the Netherlands and Finland have current account surpluses, while Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland have high budget deficits.

The article implies that the second group of countries are taking advantage of the first group. "These countries' competitiveness has dropped steadily since the euro was introduced. They lived on credit for years, seduced by the unusually low interest rates within the euro zone, and imported far more than they exported. When demand collapsed in the wake of the global financial crisis, governments jumped in to fill the gap, with serious consequences -- debt skyrocketed."

The alarm at the falling euro is turning into panic, as Reuters reports that a senior German ruling coalition says that eurozone governments have decided in principle to help Greece. European Union leaders will hold a special summit on Thursday to discuss the matter.

This simple hint at a bailout of Greece was enough to cause the euro to stop falling, and rise on Tuesday from $1.369 per euro to $1.378.

This caused stocks on Wall Street to surge 1.5%, bring the Dow Industrials back above 10000 again.

However, it's far from clear that the Thursday meeting will produce concrete results.

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Der Spiegel also laments that President Obama is ignoring Europe, favoring instead countries like Australia and Indonesia. Spiegel blames it on lack of European leadership.

China has shut down the country's largest hacker training site, according to China Daily. The site trained thousands of students to write and use software that takes control of other people's computers.

Women, including single mothers and college students, are more frequently taking jobs in strip clubs to make ends meet, according to investigative reporting by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is to be expected in a generational Crisis era, as men and women return to stereotypical gender roles.

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 10-Feb-2010
10-Feb-10 News - Iran prepares for riots, as Obama calls for harsh sanctions

Russia runs out of patience with Iran

Iran prepares for bloody street confrontations on Thursday

Euro surges and stocks follow on hints of Greece bailout

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 10-Feb-2010 10-Feb-10 News - Iran prepares for riots, as Obama calls for harsh sanctions

Russia runs out of patience with Iran

Iran prepares for bloody street confrontations on Thursday

Euro surges and stocks follow on hints of Greece bailout

Additional Links

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 10-Feb-2010
10-Feb-10 News - Iran prepares for riots, as Obama calls for harsh sanctions