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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 11-Feb-2010
11-Feb-10 News - Lebanon worries about new war with Israel

Web Log - February, 2010

11-Feb-10 News - Lebanon worries about new war with Israel

Riots and demonstrations in Greece and Iran

Lebanon's Harari warns of military threats by Israel

In an interview with the BBC, Lebanon's Prime minister Saa Hariri said he is concerned about "escalating threats" posed by Israel toward Lebanon.

He referred to verbal threats, and said that Israeli planes were entering Lebanese airspace every day, and he feared the prospect of another war with Israel:

"We hear a lot of Israeli threats day in and day out, and not only threats. We see what's happening on the ground and in our airspace and what's happening all the time during the past two months - every day we have Israeli war planes entering Lebanese airspace. This is something that is escalating, and this is something that is really dangerous."

Lebanon's newspaper The Daily Star reported similar statements by President Michel Sleiman. "The world today knows that Israeli threats against Lebanon are no longer to be taken lightly," he said, and "No one in Lebanon has responded to these threats by saying they would attack Israel. Israel has no excuse to launch an attack."

The context of these remarks is the 2006 war between Israel and Hizbollah that took place mostly on Lebanon's soil. In that war, Israel panicked, miscalculated, and attacked Hizbollah and Lebanon within four hours after the kidnapping of two soldiers -- with no plan, no clear objectives. Once the war began, Israel blundered from one objective to another, one plan to another. The entire war was pursued through improvisation.

Hariri and Sleiman are expressing the fear that Israel might panic again and launch a new attack on Hizbollah.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, these remarks are most likely to be political posturing. Lebanon is in a generational Awakening era, and we've seen years of political chaos, typical of an Awakening era.

Hariri said something else interesting in the same interview: "I think they're betting that there might be some division in Lebanon, if there is a war against us. Well, there won't be a division in Lebanon. We will stand against Israel. We will stand with our own people."

Hariri's political party is being challenged by Hizbollah's political party, and Hariri is taking this opportunity to appeal for unity.

What's interesting about this is that it's similar to the strategy of Iran's hardline government leaders. Iran is also in a generational Awakening era, and the hardline politicians have accused the West of fomenting dissent within Iran, and have called for unity of the Iranian people.

There were also calls for unity in the US in the 1960s with respect to the Vietnam War demonstrations. This appeal to unity is an important theme in Awakening eras, as politicians attempt to recapture the national unity that characterized the preceding crisis war.

This brings us back to the question of whether a new war between Israel and Hizbollah is approaching.

Lebanon itself will do everything reasonable in its power to keep such a war from occurring, for two reasons:

Lebanon is in a generational Awakening era, and thus is "attracted away from" war.

In the 2006 war, some Lebanese people supported Hizbollah, and some opposed Hizbollah. But all Lebanese people agree that they do not want Israel bombing Lebanon's infrastructure again, and so Hizbollah is restrained from provocative acts against Israel.

So the question remains whether Israel might start a war.

Israel is in a generational Crisis era. Israel started the 2006 war with Hizbollah. If Israel is provoked by Hizbollah, they will not hesitate to attack Hizbollah again, although this time they'll be much more methodical.

It's important to remember that there have been three wars in the last five years. In addition to the 2006 war, there was the war between Palestinians Fatah and Hamas in Gaza in 2008, and Israelis vs Hamas in Gaza in 2009.

With the Israelis and the Palestinians all in generational Crisis eras, a new war could begin at any time. Thus, the concerns expressed by Hariri and Sleiman are legitimate, even if they are motivated by political posturing.

Where did the Green go in Iran's flag?

Iran's flag (top) and official recent picture of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad <font size=-2>(Source: CIA Fact Book and NY Times)</font>

Iran's flag (top) and official recent picture of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (Source: CIA Fact Book and NY Times)

Take a look at the picture on the right. The top shows Iran's flag. The bottom shows a recent photo of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, published by Iran's official Fars news agency. The NY Times points out that the green has been missing in official Iranian press photos.

The reason, of course, is that Iran's opposition movement call themselves the Green Movement. Green has long been an official color of the Islamic Revolution. Take a look, for example, at the the web site of Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, the spiritual leader of Iran and the Islamic Revolution.

There's surely an extreme irony in the fact that the Green Movement is forcing the hardline Iranians to abandon the red, white and green colors of their official flag, and adopt the official colors of the United States flag -- red, white and blue. You can tell how paranoid the Iranian leaders have become when they feel forced to adopt the colors of their hated enemy, the US.

Thursday is the 31st anniversary of the start of the Islamic Revolution. By the time you read this, there will probably already have been massive street demonstrations across the country. This is the Awakening era "generation gap" at its height, and as we've been reporting almost every day for the last few days, both sides have been building to a major confrontation that will almost surely include bloodshed.

Germany bitterly accepts bailout, as unions shut down Greece

The news from Europe has been growing steadily worse for several months now, and there's a real feeling now that the euro is on the edge of a cliff, needing only one small push to send it crashing.

In the last couple of weeks, European leaders have been flip-flopping on almost an hourly basis on whether Greece should be bailed out or allowed to default on its debt. As of Wednesday evening, it appears that a bailout is inevitable, and the NY Times reports that German leaders are bitter about being forced into it.

I heard a pundit on the BBC today -- I didn't get his name -- arguing that the huge budget deficit in Greece is just as much Germany's fault as it is Greece's fault. Germany has an economy built largely on exports, and for the last ten years, Germany has taken advantage of Greece's increasing debt by selling its manufactured goods to Greece. (Presumably this is not too different from the situation where China took advantage of America's increasing debt by selling its manufactured goods to America.)

So there's going to be plenty of blame and finger-pointing, no matter what path is taken.

And there's no good path, since all the "P.I.I.G.S." countries (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain) are in trouble. If Germany bails out Greece, then Portugal will be next. "Where's my bailout?" is what you'll hear. It's going to get ugly.

And speaking of getting ugly, there was a massive public service union strike on Wednesday, practically shutting down the entire country. Thousands of teachers, doctors, nurses, train workers and air-traffic controllers are taking part in a 24-hour work stoppage.

VOA News says that they're protesting the austerity measures recently proposed by Greece's Prime Minister George Papandreou. The austerity measures include reductions in pensions, salary freezes, and tax reforms that close lucrative loopholes.

Additional Links

The Mortgage Bankers Association, experts in real estate, just sold their Washington headquarters building for $41 million, according to the Washington Post. They purchased the building in 2008 for $90 million. Obviously they believed their own press releases that the "subprime crisis was contained." I wonder what they believe today?

Massive demonstrations are expected in Mumbai on Friday to protest the opening of the new film, "My Name is Kahn." What are they protesting? The WSJ reports that its star, Shah Rukh Khan recently said that top Pakistani cricket players should be welcomed into India's professional cricket league. Obviously, feelings between India and Pakistan are running very high.

The most evil country leader in the world today is probably Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe. His corruption, greed, hatred and racism have turned Zimbabwe from the breadbasket of Africa into a starving nation, a nation consumed with cholera, and a nation of bloody ethnic killings. Now he plans to starve Zimbabwe even further by shutting down white-owned companies, according to VOA News.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 11-Feb-10 News - Lebanon worries about new war with Israel thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (11-Feb-2010) Permanent Link
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