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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-Feb-2010
14-Feb-10 News - Operation Moshtarak: Nato vs the Taliban in Afghanistan

Web Log - February, 2010

14-Feb-10 News - Operation Moshtarak: Nato vs the Taliban in Afghanistan

Major terrorist attack in India

Nato launches a major military attack on Taliban in Helmand Province

In the biggest military offensive since the overthrow of the Taliban in 2001, NATO coalition forces have seized the town of Marjah from the Taliban in Helmand Province in southern Afghanistan.

The offensive in central Helmand is led by US Marines, and involves 15,000 Canadian, British, Danish and Estonian troops, working with Afghan forces, according to the BBC.

Battle in Marjar, in Helmand Province in Afghanistan <font face=Arial size=-2>(Source: BBC)</font>

Battle in Marjar, in Helmand Province in Afghanistan (Source: BBC)

There has been fierce fighting between coalition and Taliban forces, but special care has been taken to avoid civilian casualties, according to CNN.

Despite the fierce fighting, coalition forces easily won the early battles. However, it's thought that the Taliban insurgents have simply blended into the civilian population, and are waiting for the opportunity to strike back.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this attempt to pacify Helmand province is very much like the "surge" strategy in Iraq, and will probably succeed for the same reason.

Afghanistan is in a generational Recovery era, having fought a Soviet invasion in the 1980s, and then a very bloody civil war from 1992 to 1996. Thus, the Afghan people have no desire for war, are repelled by war, and in most cases are perfectly happy to stay out of it and let Nato and the Taliban fight it out between themselves. This is particularly true in Helmand province, which is far from the Pakistan border.

Furthermore, Helmand province is the world's largest producer of heroin, and so a success there might cut off funds that the Taliban makes by trafficking drugs.

However, as far as the Afghanistan war is concerned, Helmand province will have little consequence.

The important battlefields are near the Pakistan border, around Kabul and Kandahar. These are the regions infiltrated by Pakistani Taliban, and Pakistan is in a generational Crisis era, ready, willing and able to get into a war. (For a complete analysis of the Afghan war, see my September, 2009, article, "American army general warns of imminent defeat in Afghanistan war.")

But war near the Pakistan border is for another day. For now, it will be nice to gain some ground in Helmand.

Major terrorist attack strikes Pune, India

Nine people were killed and 50 were injured when a high-intensity bomb exploded at a Germany Bakery in Pune, India, near Mumbai. The bakery was very popular with foreigners, according to the Hindustani Times, and many of the dead are foreigners.

The last major terrorist attack in India was the cataclysmic "26/11" Mumbai attack on November 26, 2008. (See "After Mumbai's '26/11' nightmare finally ends, India - Pakistan relations face crisis.")

The perpetrators were Lashkar-e-Toiba, the Pakistani terrorist group, committed to Pakistan's takeover of Indian-controlled Kashmir. After the Mumbai attack, Pakistan and India almost went to war, as India threatened to invade Pakistani soil to go after Lashkar-e-Toiba. War was only avoided by hard intervention from Condoleezza Rice.

Relations between India and Pakistan have been very tense since then, and it's only very recently that the two countries have begun peace talks again.

That's why Lashkar-e-Toiba is suspected as the perpetrators of the new bombing.

However, that's only one of two major possibilities. The other possibility is the Indian Mujahideen, a highly nationalistic Muslim terrorist group within India itself.

Either way, it's believed that the purpose of the terrorist attack was to effect the cancellation of the peace talks.

One of the bloodiest wars of the 20th century was the war between Hindus and Muslims that followed Partition, the 1947 partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan. Generational Dynamics predicts that that war will be re-fought in the near future.

Additional links

Valentine's day is considered a heretical practice in Muslim Saudi Arabia, and everyone has been warned that anything colored red might be confiscated by the police. But AFP reports that red teddy bears are a big seller at this time of the year on the black market.

For another kind of commemoration, February 13-14 is the anniversary of the Allied firebombing of Dresden in 1945. Der Spiegel explains why marches are staged each year to commemorate.

The far-left Huffington Post is now bitterly criticizing President Obama. Do you think it'll get as bad as their criticism of President Bush?

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 14-Feb-10 News - Operation Moshtarak: Nato vs the Taliban in Afghanistan thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (14-Feb-2010) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-Feb-2010 14-Feb-10 News - Operation Moshtarak: Nato vs the Taliban in Afghanistan

Nato launches a major military attack on Taliban in Helmand Province

Major terrorist attack strikes Pune, India

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-Feb-2010
14-Feb-10 News - Operation Moshtarak: Nato vs the Taliban in Afghanistan