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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-Feb-2010
Kenya's political coalition may collapse and lead to tribal warfare

Web Log - February, 2010

Kenya's political coalition may collapse and lead to tribal warfare

Kenya is still reeling from the waves of gruesome ethnic violence that broke out late in December, 2007, amid accusations that the administration had rigged the election that won Mwai Kibaki a second 5-year term as President of Kenya. Hundreds of people were killed, and hundreds of thousands were displaced from their homes to escape the violence. (See "Post-election massacre in Kenya raises concerns of tribal war.")

Kenya

Kenya

Kibaki, the winner of the election, is from the market-dominant Kikuyu tribe. The losing candidate was Raila Odinga, from the disadvantaged Luo tribe. The Luos had hoped to see an Odinga victory, and felt cheated when he lost what appeared to be a rigged election. The ethnic violence was started, according to many sources, by youthful activists in the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), an anti-government Luo ally supporting Odinga for President. There were many atrocities committed on both sides, and the violence was so great that many people feared that there would be full-scale tribal warfare.

I wrote, based on a generational analysis, that a full scale war was POSSIBLE but UNLIKELY. Briefly, Kenya's last generational crisis war was the Mau-Mau Rebellion, an independence war largely fought by the Kikuyus against the British colonial government, climaxing in 1956. 51 years had passed since the climax of the last crisis war, making a new crisis war unlikely. However, a new full-scale civil war becomes increasingly likely in the next few years. (See "Kenya settles into low-level violence on the way to Rwanda.")

As expected, civil war did NOT break out. An agreement between the two sides was mediated by former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, involving a power sharing arrangement between Kibaki and Odinga.

The power-sharing arrangement was never very solid, inasmuch as it was between representatives of two separate tribes that really hate each other.

Power-sharing agreement in crisis

Now the power-sharing agreement appears to be breaking down, and once again there are fears of resumption of widespread tribal violence.

Kikaki and Odinga are supposed to have equal powers under the power-sharing arrangement, but as a practical matter, Kikaki has made the major decisions, and Odinga has had to accept them.

Last week, a bitter political dispute erupted over which government officials should be fired in a corruption scandal. Odinga's supporters were infuriated by the perceived hypocrisy of Kikaki's decision to favor his own party's officials, according to the Kenyan newspaper, The Nation.

In another article in the same newspaper, there's a political analysis of the question: What happens if Prime Minister Raila Odinga walks out of the power-sharing alliance?

The conclusion is that nothing would too alarming would occur:

"Constitutional scholar Githu Muigai agreed that if ODM decided to leave, the coalition would collapse but not the government.

"Constitutionally, a government would be in place conceivably until the next election or a new constitution is enacted," he said.

This means that if Mr Odinga walked out, President Kibaki would re-constitute government and finish his second term. According to Prof Muigai, the challenge will not be constitutional but political.

"There would be issues on whether it could resist a no-confidence vote and whether it would be effective, viable and legitimate," he said.

Formed after the 2008 political crisis, the coalition was meant to be a partnership with commitment on both sides to govern together and push reforms."

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this legalistic analysis has nothing to do with the situation. When massive violence broke out in 2007, it wasn't because they did a complete legal analysis of the constitutionality of the situation, reached a reasoned conclusion, and then decided to kill somebody.

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The violence was completely visceral, and was triggered by the election results and widespread view that the elections were rigged. If new violence occurs today, it won't depend on the constitutional interpretation of who can fire whom. Once again, it will be entirely visceral.

In fact, some large demonstrations are occurring, although they're non-violent so far. In one of the refugee camps in Rift Valley, containing refugees from the 2007 violence, thousands have staged a protest against the Kenyan government, and threatened to march to Nairobi (the capital). Armed police were able to stop the march without violence. Meanwhile, there have also been protests and demonstrations outside of President Kibaki's office in Nairobi.

It's now been 54 years since the climax of the Mau-Mau rebellion. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it's still a bit to early for a full-scale crisis civil war, although it's a possibility. The most likely time is 58 years after the climax, since that's the height of a major generational change: The time when the survivors of the preceding crisis war all disappear (retire or die), all at once, and the post-war generations assume senior roles in government and business organizations.

Typically what happens is that there's a kind of dance that goes on between the two sides, on the way to a crisis war. There's a brief spurt of violence, followed by mediated peace agreement that breaks down when the next spurt of violence occurs. After three or four dance cycles of this type, both sides get sick of pretending, and full-scale war breaks out.

Kenya is doing that dance right now. It's possible that the current political crisis will generate another spurt of violence, but it's likely to fizzle soon. But after a couple more such spurts, full-scale war will begin.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Kenya thread of the Generational Dynamics forum.) (18-Feb-2010) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-Feb-2010 Kenya's political coalition may collapse and lead to tribal warfare

Power-sharing agreement in crisis

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-Feb-2010
Kenya's political coalition may collapse and lead to tribal warfare