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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Feb-2010
23-Feb-10 News - Is Burma poised for a new civil war?

Web Log - February, 2010

23-Feb-10 News - Is Burma poised for a new civil war?

'Generation Zero' writer/director Steve Bannon will appear on Hannity on Tuesday evening.

'Generation Zero' movie will be featured on Hannity on Tuesday evening

The writer/director of the movie, Steve Bannon, will be on Hannity (on Fox News Channel) on Tuesday evening from 9-10 pm ET, and the entire hour is going to be devoted to this movie. They're going to show several segments of the movie.

The movie itself is non-partisan, but it's being heavily promoted by the conservatives. (See "New documentary movie 'Generation Zero' brings generational theory to the public.")

In Burma (Myanmar), the ethnic Kachins prepare for a new civil war

The next generation of the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) are training to begin a new civil war, according to the BBC.

The Kachin state, the home of the ethnic Kachin population, occupies the northeast corner of Burma (Myanmar), on the border with China. The Kachins have a fair amount of autonomy. They have their own army, they trade briskly with China, and they levy taxes to provide roads and schools, according to the article.

The Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) was formed in 1961 to gain independence from Burma. There was intermittent violence between the Kachins and the Burmese army until a cease-fire was signed on February 24, 1994. As the anniversary of the ceasefire approaches, there is fear that full-scale civil war will break out.

The trigger would be a Burmese junta (government) demand that the KIA disband and merge into the Burmese army as border guards.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, a full-scale civil war at this time is impossible, and I'd like to repeat some themes that I've discussed recently with regard to other countries, such as Kenya.

There's a kind of dance that can go on for years or even decades when a country is approaching a civil war. There are spurts of violence that go on for a while and then fizzle, as some kind of ceasefire is agreed to. At some point, both sides get tired of ceasefires, and they launch full-scale civil war. Over the last few years, for example, I traced this dance in Sri Lanka, as it went from ceasefire to civil war and then, in 2009, to a civil war climax, and the war was over.

The transition from cease-fire to full-scale civil war occurs with the "regeneracy," some trigger that's so shocking that it ends political bickering and regenerates civic unity among both belligerents. (For information about the term "regeneracy" and about generational eras, see "Basics of Generational Dynamics.")

However, the regeneracy cannot occur before its time -- as long as the survivors of the last crisis civil war are still around. It's only when they begin to die off in great numbers that the younger generations have their way, and a full-scale civil war can begin. This usually happens around 58 years (or later) after the end of the preceding civil war.

Burma's last crisis civil war ended in 1958, and so it's too early for a new full-scale civil war to begin.

The BBC article itself gives a hint of this when it says, "It is a war the Kachin people do not want and one they cannot win." This is not the attitude of a people ready for slaughter.

According to an article by Mazzima, a Burmese news service operating in India, the KIA is one of three ethnic armed Kachin army groups in Kachin State, and the other two have already agreed to the terms laid down by Burma's junta. Once again, this is not the attitude of a people ready for a bloody civil war, despite the statements of the KIA generals.

In 2007, peaceful demonstrations by Buddhist monks in Burma were ended by massive slaughter and atrocities by the Burmese army. In "Burma: Growing demonstrations by the "88 Generation" raise fears of new slaughter," I summarized Burma's generational history, including the events that led to the 2007 confrontations.

An Amnesty International analysis (PDF) of the demonstrations and their aftermath was published last week. It goes into detail about the repression of the different Burmese ethnic groups, including the Kachins.

In summary, then, the current political situation may indeed lead to a new outbreak of violence, but the violence will fizzle, and not break into full-scale civil war at this time.

Additional Links

Another climate change scientific study is being withdrawn. The Guardian reports that claims that the sea levels would rise due to global warming was withdrawn, after mistakes were found, undermining the findings. The study had been published in 2009 in Nature Geoscience, one of the top journals in the climate change field.

Millions of unemployed people face years without jobs. NY Times.

A desperate Prime Minister Georgios Papandreou gives a interview to Der Spiegel, in which he says that the financial crisis is a "question of survival for Greece." According to EuroIntelligence, Spiegel is also reporting that the Germans have resigned themselves to a Greece bailout of about 20-25 billion euros, of which Germany will contribute 4-5 billion euros.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 23-Feb-10 News - Is Burma poised for a new civil war? thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (23-Feb-2010) Permanent Link
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'Generation Zero' movie will be featured on Hannity on Tuesday evening

In Burma (Myanmar), the ethnic Kachins prepare for a new civil war

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Feb-2010
23-Feb-10 News - Is Burma poised for a new civil war?