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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 5-Mar-2010
5-Mar-10 News - Dutch elections give boost to right-wing Geert Wilders

Web Log - March, 2010

5-Mar-10 News - Dutch elections give boost to right-wing Geert Wilders

Greece reaches new crisis point, as Greece calls EU's bluff

Geert Wilders' right-wing party are winners in Dutch elections

When the Dutch government collapsed on February 20 over the question of whether Dutch troops will continue to serve in Afghanistan (see "21-Feb-10 News - Dutch government collapses over Afghanistan"), the fear was that the collapse would trigger a rise in power of the far-right anti-immigrant, anti-Muslim politician, Geert Wilders, head of the Party for Freedom (PVV).

That prediction has now taken one step further to coming true.

Geert Wilders <font face=Arial size=-2>(Source: NRC Handelsblad)</font>

Geert Wilders (Source: NRC Handelsblad)

The collapse forced local parliamentary elections on Wednesday, and there were big symbolic victories for the PVV candidates. The victory is only "symbolic" because PVV competed in only two cities (the Hague and Almere), and did unexpectedly well in both cities. Furthermore, some polls indicate that if voters had elected an entire new parliament, the PVV would have been the largest single party, according to NRC Handlesblad, although other polls dispute that.

Wednesday's election was closely watched because it indicates what might happen in the national elections on June 9.

Many commentators see this as a major change to the political landscape, according to Dutch News. The PVV will almost certainly not be a majority winner in June, but they may win enough votes to become kingmakers in the coalition government that have to be formed with the other parties (Labour, Christian Democrats, and socialists). One Dutch News commentator, Robin Pascoe, say, "Wilders' constant emphasis on 'our culture' and 'our values' is having an insidious effect. It is slowly chipping away at the acceptance of all foreigners in the Netherlands, where ever they come from. And it is that hardening of attitudes which will be most damaging to the Netherlands in the long run."

The polarization of politics

There were also winners on the left in the Dutch elections. The left wing liberal D66 party earned the most seats elsewhere in the country (NRC Handlesblad).

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is part of a worldwide move toward political extremes (far left and far right), as we go deeper into a generational Crisis era.

Thus, in the Netherlands, we see the growth of left wing and right wing parties.

In Greece, we're seeing leftist groups rioting and demonstrating.

In Britain, we see the right-wing British National Party (BNP) generating a great deal of controversy, because the party leader, Nick Griffin will take part in nationally televised election debates, as reported by The Independent.

In America, we have some left-wing loons in the MoveOn.org dominating the news, while some right-wing loons in the Tea Parties capture media attention.

As these countries go deeper into a generational crisis era, the political debates will go increasingly from bickering to extremism and, in some countries, violence.

German/Greece acrimony increases over requests for IMF help

Prime Minister George A. Papandreou is calling the European Union's bluff.

On Wednesday, he announced severe austerity measures that are infuriating to many Greeks. The unions are furious at the substantial cuts in public sector employees' pay. Pensioners are facing triple pain: A freeze in pensions, an increase in taxes, and, thanks to unemployment, an inability ask their kids for help.

The cuts amount to 4% of Greece's GDP. Since the budget deficit is about 13% of the GDP, these austerity cuts, if implemented, would reduce the budget deficit to 9% of GDP.

"If implemented" is the operative phrase. As The Economist points out, the cuts are extremely unpopular, although polls show that over 60% of Greeks accept that tougher measures are needed.

Nonetheless, these are the austerity measures that the EU had demanded. Having met his part of the bargain, Papandreou is now demanding EU aid to get through the most immediate crisis -- $27 billion in the next two months to roll over expiring debt. On Friday, he's going to Berlin to meet with German Chancellor Angela Merkel about this question.

However, Merkel has already snubbed Papandreou, according to Bloomberg, saying that the Friday meeting won't be "about aid commitments."

I actually saw Merkel make that statement on the BBC, and she looked like she was ready to kill somebody. I don't want to make too big a deal out of one brief statement on TV, but I think I can say with certainty that Merkel will not be welcoming Papandreou's visit with open arms.

Surprisingly, Papandreou does have some leverage over Merkel and the Europeans. After visiting Berlin, his next stop will be Paris, to visit with French president Nicolas Sarkozy. Then he's on to Washington, to meet with Barack Obama and, even more important, to meet with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), to request financial assistance from them. It would be a humiliation to the EU if the IMF has to bail out Greece.

The Germans are furious about the idea of rewarding Greece's years of profligate spending by bailing them out. A compromise may be worked out, however, where Germany's banks loan the money to Greece, and Germany guarantees the loans. In that way, Merkel will avoid direct aid to Greece, and still keep Greece from defaulting on its debt.

China claims that its military budget growth is slowing

China's announced military budget, 2000-2010 <font face=Arial size=-2>(Source: CS Monitor)</font>

China's announced military budget, 2000-2010 (Source: CS Monitor)

China's military spending has been growing a double-digit rates each year for 20 years, but this year Beijing announced that its budget would grow by 7.5% in 2010. However, many analysts believe that the actual figures are much higher, according to CS Monitor.

My own view, as I've stated several times before, is that China has taken advantage of its aggressive fiscal stimulus program in 2009 to pour a lot more money into the military. This is the logical thing to do in a centrally-controlled economy, and it's what Germany and Japan successfully did in the late 1930s.

Additional Links

Turkey has recalled its US ambassador after Congress's Foreign Affairs Committee passed a resolution describing the World War I battles between Turks and Armenians as genocide by the Turks of the Armenians. CS Monitor

A new machine under development is a commercial 3D bio-printer for manufacturing human tissue and organs -- in other words, a machine that prints organs. The Economist reports that it will cost $200,000, that a prototype has already been developed, and it will be used to order replacement body parts on demand.

There's a new form of vigilante justice being practiced widely in China, where it's called "human flesh searches." If someone does something (real or imagined) that's politically incorrect, then information is posted on social web sites. Groups of "human flesh searches" across the country cooperate to identify the alleged offender, find out where he lives and who his friends and relatives are, and exact revenge. NY Times

Scientists find mathematical formula for the perfect wife. Telegraph

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 5-Mar-10 News - Dutch elections give boost to right-wing Geert Wilders thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (5-Mar-2010) Permanent Link
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